Future of the season part deux

[jshields]

http://twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=492&sounding.y=307&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2009&model_mm=05&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=00&fhour=120&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

the 0Z run shows maybe a decent chance on saturday 5/30 across eastern nebraska and eastern kansas into western iowa and missouri. pretty good cap though and not a real strong low to kick anything off, but hey at least its good cape, and the upper level winds are stronger than 10 kts!! the hodo for eastern nebraska looks real good! sunday looks alright too although the lcl's are a little high

 

[Phil Kurimski]

the 0Z run shows maybe a decent chance on saturday 5/30 across eastern nebraska and eastern kansas into western iowa and missouri. pretty good cap though and not a real strong low to kick anything off, but hey at least its good cape, and the upper level winds are stronger than 10 kts!! the hodo for eastern nebraska looks real good

I am seeing the same thing...this weekend could provide a nice 1 or 2 day chase for those who are willing to travel out to the Central Plains.

 

[Olivier Staiger]

OMG !!! "IT" IS BACK !!! RUN FOR THE STORM SHELTER !!!

 

[Eric Bucsela]

The 240 hr forecast from the May 26 00z ECMWF is the best I've seen from that model in a long time. I know that's not saying much, but it finally looks like broad SW flow - like what SOME of the recent GFS runs have been hinting at. I bet something is in the works - the models are just struggling with the how and when. At this point, ANY improvement will be real welcome.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Wow there are some serious downers on here.

Well, mine was half for the season, and half for my own financial situation. I'm a stormchaser, not just a tornado chaser (although I of course respect torn-only chasers!!) but tornado/big hail "big time" setups are all I can afford to chase now that I've been cut from my summertime late-July teaching job and the $3000 that went with it (thanks to H1N1 and the flight cancellations from all but two of my international High School calculus prep class). Thus, I can only do my long-term chasing for setups where I have a chance to make a little kickback from mine (or my partner's) live stream and/or footage showing something worth watching. Gone, though, are my $20 for a jaunt across Iowa in the early mornings chasing a derecho as I did last year, as well as my enjoyable solo half-tank popcorn t-storm chases - at least until I can secure a decent paying gig.

Should've really clarified that I wasn't down on the whole season - nobody can predict that one, although I think Vortex2 is gonna have some hard times since they're done sooner than later

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

the 0Z run shows maybe a decent chance on saturday 5/30 across eastern nebraska and eastern kansas into western iowa and missouri. pretty good cap though and not a real strong low to kick anything off, but hey at least its good cape, and the upper level winds are stronger than 10 kts!! the hodo for eastern nebraska looks real good! sunday looks alright too although the lcl's are a little high

Funny, but I had my eye on this for the past few days. Yesterday (or the day before, I can't recall) the low was a lot tighter around the southern SD/MN/IA
area, with precip breaking out around there. My galfriend and I are supposed to be at a lake south of Willmar, MN for that entire week courtesy of her parents, and we're driving up there that afternoon or the night before. Since Satuday is date night, I offered some stormwatching (which she's always wanted to do with me ... or at least she's said so) and it might turn out to be much more interesting than it was before.

LCLs look fine over NW IA, where the GFS is breaking out precip over a sufficient part of that instability axis. Shear looks good there, too, and although the location/features are probably going to change, it might be a good nader play if a miracle occurs and it all holds together both in reachable locale to our cabin and in keeping together as a meteorological whole.

 

[Austin Funderburgh]

00Z GFS once again does show some opportunities in the next couple weeks. SPC has outlined MO to SD for day 5 (Saturday). Finally something besides "Potential Too Low". I'm with those who have not quite given up hope for this season yet. Saturday will definitely be the best setup since May 15th (over 2 weeks). Possibly even better setups still to come. Time will tell.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The GFS is showing signs of life, but that stupid Bermuda high is still stuck there not allowing anything to really develop far enough to the south and to allow it to fully move into the western US. Until that changes, we're not going to get a really good setup.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

The GFS is showing signs of life, but that stupid Bermuda high is still stuck there not allowing anything to really develop far enough to the south and to allow it to fully move into the western US. Until that changes, we're not going to get a really good setup.

I agree. Maybe this is a beginning sign of a severe hurricane season.

Anyone want to comment on that possibillity?

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, im very pleased to see the last two GFS runs start to dismantle that ridge! I'll take marginal chases over no chases any time. The 06Z wishcast even has a classic pattern with sfce low ovr the panhandles next Thu. I think theres going to be opportunities opening up. Now that the monsoonal muck is about over here in CO, i can see the dryline start to rebuild and it could be in good shape for later next week.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Well, im very pleased to see the last two GFS runs start to dismantle that ridge! I'll take marginal chases over no chases any time. The 06Z wishcast even has a classic pattern with sfce low ovr the panhandles next Thu. I think theres going to be opportunities opening up. Now that the monsoonal muck is about over here in CO, i can see the dryline start to rebuild and it could be in good shape for later next week.

I agree. There seems to be a slightly prolonged agreement over the last few days with the GFS and a major change beginning as early as late this weekend with a dryline possibly setting up. Then again, the GFS has been doing this all season. Maybe not this time!

W.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

I agree. There seems to be a slightly prolonged agreement over the last few days with the GFS and a major change beginning as early as late this weekend with a dryline possibly setting up. Then again, the GFS has been doing this all season. Maybe not this time!

I'm more optimistic this time - the GFS is showing the change within a week (instead of the usual 384 hrs) AND the ECMWF is also showing a change - for a change!

The GFS is showing signs of life, but that stupid Bermuda high is still stuck there

I thought the Bermuda high is a GOOD thing - that's the high near Bermuda that lets GOM air flow around it into the Plains - as opposed to the southwestern high that is blocking the troughs (?)

 

[John Hudson]

Well, mine was half for the season, and half for my own financial situation. I'm a stormchaser, not just a tornado chaser (although I of course respect torn-only chasers!!) but tornado/big hail "big time" setups are all I can afford to chase now that I've been cut from my summertime late-July teaching job and the $3000 that went with it (thanks to H1N1 and the flight cancellations from all but two of my international High School calculus prep class). Thus, I can only do my long-term chasing for setups where I have a chance to make a little kickback from mine (or my partner's) live stream and/or footage showing something worth watching. Gone, though, are my $20 for a jaunt across Iowa in the early mornings chasing a derecho as I did last year, as well as my enjoyable solo half-tank popcorn t-storm chases - at least until I can secure a decent paying gig.

Should've really clarified that I wasn't down on the whole season - nobody can predict that one, although I think Vortex2 is gonna have some hard times since they're done sooner than later

My negativity about the season was based on rather similar circumstances, Darrin. A 15 to 20 hour drive (even at current fuel rates) is a big commitment to make, and I'm not going to do it unless the sky really looks like it's going to open up a can of serious wup-a$$. I just don't have the luxury of geography, or endless cash reserves.

That said, I must admit that even I (of the notorious toe-tag post) am somewhat buoyed by the pattern changes the models are now hinting at.

Nebraska and eastern Kansas look like they could be interesting places to be this weekend, although I have to say that I remain unimpressed with the shear figures. And, as others have pointed out, the cap could pose a problem.

I'll be keeping an eye on the GooFuS and other forms of witchcraft we call models, and hope for a change of fortune for everyone, with maybe a dash of central/northern Plains action added as a bonus (please!!).

Here's to a last kick at the proverbial cat.


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Brett Roberts]

The 26/12z op ECMWF continues to suggest a transition to SW flow across the Plains by the middle of next week. While I'm finding it hard to hold onto any sort of optimism given the way things have gone lately, this does look more encouraging than the 348-hour GFS fantasies every fourth run we were stuck with a week ago. It looks like we'll be dealing with fairly diffuse height gradients (presumably meaning somewhat weak mid- and upper-level flow), but any SW flow at all beats the hell out of our current pattern.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I thought the Bermuda high is a GOOD thing - that's the high near Bermuda that lets GOM air flow around it into the Plains - as opposed to the southwestern high that is blocking the troughs (?)

Sometimes I think they are one in the same, but I see your point. I meant the high in the southwestern US/western Mexico. It's still lingering there, especially on the ECMWF.