Michael O'Keeffe
There's no death ridge, its NW flow which is better than nothing. You can get good NW flow tornado events pretty easily on the High Plains however it isn't as obvious as Sw flow, but at least there is flow of some kind.
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
Phil Kurimski
EF1
I agree...things are looking pretty interesting for the later part of the week and into the weekend. You have an actual low moving through the northern part of the country and the flow increasing in the middle to upper levels to something more than 30 kts!
Derek Weston
EF5
Agree... it's something.
Lots of mid/upper level flow returning (even if NW) on the latest 12z like O'Keefe said...
In watching the late period runs here again... they've been spitting out different things -- not consistent -- but 'things' nevertheless...
(12z continues to be more active with upper level flow... even if it was SW flow last time and NW this)
Stan Rose
EF5
Well, i hope your optmimistic interpretation pans out, but at 120 h and at 240 h, i would not call that typical NW flow, its a big stinkin ridge, pure and simple. There may be some NW flow on the E side in the Dakotas or Wisconsin, but with fronts regularly blasting moisture clear to the Gulf, that doesnt offer me much excitement. In between, it looks like the GFS has enough quasi-zonal flow to give some hope to the Front Range, which is fine with me since that's a real short drive, but i can't say im that hopeful. "Death" may be relative, im sure you would agree that it would be nicer to have that W coast low blasting into the Srn Rockies than retrograding as a Cut-off into the E PAcific, while the long wave ridge holds firmly planted over the West Coast, clear all the way to ALaska. Im sorry, but i cant get too excited over that pattern.
Derek Weston
EF5
ridge(ier) early on between the period you talk about... (though with some upper midwest/dakotas action)
However, I was largely referring to later period runs..... 240+
http://twisterdata.com/index.php?pr...nglemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false
John Hudson
EF4
Darrin Rasberry
The game's over. Depressing.
Michael O'Keeffe
Wow there are some serious downers on here. It will be funny to see ya'll on spotter network a couple weeks from now leaving at 6am to get to your targets. I still think we will get a pattern shift, and the 18z backs me up. I know the 6z and 12z look pretty pathetic however still better than a ridge, a lot of times this far out you will get one run that looks good while another looks bad, I remember this last season, the season before, and the seasons before those the models worked the same way. All I'm saying is just because there isn't a May 22-26 type of outbreak right now doesn't mean we can't get the bulk of the season in June, good examples of this include 2005 and 1993. So just wait, it'll happen. Ma Nature doesn't listen to what the books say, we all know that I mean look at what happened in Colorado yesterday and today.
Ryan Wichman
EF3
Michael, you beat me to the punch by a few minutes. I was just about to mention that I don't believe this season is over by a long shot.
If we are talking about the type of outbreaks where TWC leads you to the storm, then yes, those set-ups are over. But by doing some analysis and simple forecasting in the upcoming weeks, there WILL no doubt be days in the which will contain some great chase-able storms. Doing your HW and not relying on typical chase set-ups will yield fruitful results.
If we are talking about the type of outbreaks where TWC leads you to the storm, then yes, those set-ups are over. But by doing some analysis and simple forecasting in the upcoming weeks, there WILL no doubt be days in the which will contain some great chase-able storms. Doing your HW and not relying on typical chase set-ups will yield fruitful results.
joel ewing
EF5
Guys, I too have the tendency to sometimes see things as glass half full, but I really am a bit surprised to see so many folks lament that the entire season is over. S--t man, we're only in the latter part of May. If you're a chaser that's willing and/or able to be mobile...I cannot fathom that there won't be any sort of turnaround in June...or July. Chase further north, like I do. I much prefer it, to be honest.
But right now, I'd pretty damn frustrated too. I've been sitting in front of my pc all day mining for some hope. My chase partner Doren has already paid heavy $$ to change his flight into Omaha a week ago...now it looks like we're both going to pay the frickkin' penalty again to back our trip up at least ANOTHER week.
But to say that this season is dead and buried....whyyyy....if I were to see you face to face I'd be like General Patton and take off one of my white parade gloves and cuff you across the cheek. "Grow a backbone.....that's what I'd say!!"
Err, ummm, s'cuse me while I get back to being depressed.
But right now, I'd pretty damn frustrated too. I've been sitting in front of my pc all day mining for some hope. My chase partner Doren has already paid heavy $$ to change his flight into Omaha a week ago...now it looks like we're both going to pay the frickkin' penalty again to back our trip up at least ANOTHER week.
But to say that this season is dead and buried....whyyyy....if I were to see you face to face I'd be like General Patton and take off one of my white parade gloves and cuff you across the cheek. "Grow a backbone.....that's what I'd say!!"
Err, ummm, s'cuse me while I get back to being depressed.
Derek Weston
EF5
Interesting to hear the varying opinions on our situation here.
More specifically... the language used to describe the situation.
Dead. Dead...what? Large scale tornadic outbreaks? The big chase days? Yeah, the clock is ticking there, and still not too much hope to be gathered from the models. But we're only seeing into early June... still a bit of a window, and I'm not sure we've been thrusted into a permanent "summer time" state quite yet.
Dead... where? Southern Plains? Yeah, more than likely going to be slowing down there quite a bit... climatologically speaking. Northern Plains? Upper midwest? I know that's a far drive for some of you used to chasing within a 4 hour radius... but traditionally we see a few good tornado days, at least, up there through out the summer. Not a part of the regular "chase season" -- but for those that go year round...
Severe weather? Dead? Not at all... there will be more supercells, high wind, big hail ... with isolated tornado events. (obviously)
Ridge will die, and we will at least see a return to some nice severe setups, even if typical summer time stuff...
Anyhow... get the feeling that some folks are coming at this discussion from different angles. Probably rather depressing if you're in the southern plains, or are on and or planning to be on a chase vacation -- time is running out. If you're merely happy to see some severe weather roll through your location -- there is hope yet. Want to chase the upper plains/midwest? Still plenty of time.
More specifically... the language used to describe the situation.
Dead. Dead...what? Large scale tornadic outbreaks? The big chase days? Yeah, the clock is ticking there, and still not too much hope to be gathered from the models. But we're only seeing into early June... still a bit of a window, and I'm not sure we've been thrusted into a permanent "summer time" state quite yet.
Dead... where? Southern Plains? Yeah, more than likely going to be slowing down there quite a bit... climatologically speaking. Northern Plains? Upper midwest? I know that's a far drive for some of you used to chasing within a 4 hour radius... but traditionally we see a few good tornado days, at least, up there through out the summer. Not a part of the regular "chase season" -- but for those that go year round...
Severe weather? Dead? Not at all... there will be more supercells, high wind, big hail ... with isolated tornado events. (obviously)
Ridge will die, and we will at least see a return to some nice severe setups, even if typical summer time stuff...
Anyhow... get the feeling that some folks are coming at this discussion from different angles. Probably rather depressing if you're in the southern plains, or are on and or planning to be on a chase vacation -- time is running out. If you're merely happy to see some severe weather roll through your location -- there is hope yet. Want to chase the upper plains/midwest? Still plenty of time.
Rob Wadsworth
EF5
I think we are all pretty antsey - no doubt - from all of the posts I've read here. I know that I am.
I just ran out into northeastern NE today - just to get some thunderstorm shots. The storms were pathetic to say the least-BTW. I just couldn't sit in my motel room another minute. I'm ready to go back home if something doesn't cut loose in the next five days. From what has been shown on the GooFuS, it does look like it is over. No real outbreaks, just marginal storms at best. Forget about Canada, that is impractical - IMO. BTW-does GR3 even work in Canada? I didn't think so...
On the other hand - what will we see in the next week? A slight dip in the jet? Puh-leeze! Then again, that is probably best for the people who must live and work around The Alley. I also think this also looks a bit ominous. We are acting and thinking the way we are - because there isn't any predictability. So far this year, I haven't even seen a lightning storm, as I just got out to Iowa less than a week ago. Yes; it is very depressing and boring. I really don't mean to sound so pessimistic, but I guess that is what I am right now...
Just a collection of loose ends and tired thoughts - I guess. To quote Tom Hanks (from "The Burbs"?): "I'm pretty tired; I think I'll go home now..."
I just ran out into northeastern NE today - just to get some thunderstorm shots. The storms were pathetic to say the least-BTW. I just couldn't sit in my motel room another minute. I'm ready to go back home if something doesn't cut loose in the next five days. From what has been shown on the GooFuS, it does look like it is over. No real outbreaks, just marginal storms at best. Forget about Canada, that is impractical - IMO. BTW-does GR3 even work in Canada? I didn't think so...
On the other hand - what will we see in the next week? A slight dip in the jet? Puh-leeze! Then again, that is probably best for the people who must live and work around The Alley. I also think this also looks a bit ominous. We are acting and thinking the way we are - because there isn't any predictability. So far this year, I haven't even seen a lightning storm, as I just got out to Iowa less than a week ago. Yes; it is very depressing and boring. I really don't mean to sound so pessimistic, but I guess that is what I am right now...
Just a collection of loose ends and tired thoughts - I guess. To quote Tom Hanks (from "The Burbs"?): "I'm pretty tired; I think I'll go home now..."
Dan Robinson
We all have varying definitions on what is a chaseworthy pattern, which I think has a direct relationship to 1.) how many storms one sees at home throughout the year and 2.) how flexible one is to make trips.
I tend to be fairly satisfied with the local opportunities that present themselves in my 'home area' (OH, KY, PA, VA, NC and WV). That, and I have a chase budget that supports roughly 7 to 10 days of Plains time each season. Consequently I won't spend that limited funds on subject matter I can get close to home (lightning, hail, shelf clouds, and so on). For me, I want great tornado setups before I drop the money to make a long trip. (And even then, I'm not devastated when I don't come home with a tornado.)
And for me, that great setup means at minimum, broad, strong SW flow (35-40kts min) aloft and deep moisture. That will always give you the most 'bang for your buck' in the Plains. That is, less chase days spent per tornado/supercell day. If you have the time and money to chase the more marginal and 'chancey' non-SW/weak flow or low moisture setups, I say go for it! For sure, you'll see something on occasion. But it's going to take you many more chase days (and money spent) to see a tornado or great supercell than if you spent the same amounts on a SW flow+deep moisture pattern.
If I had a fixed vacation that was locked in for right now, I'd probably go. Better to chase something than not at all. But if you're flexible and have limited funds to chase, it makes more sense to wait for patterns that are better suited for severe weather. That is, strong flow aloft and deep moisture, both of which I don't see much of a hint for on any long range progs right now (and therefore my continued pessimism). The second week of June is still too far out to call, so as many have said, it's not over yet.
I tend to be fairly satisfied with the local opportunities that present themselves in my 'home area' (OH, KY, PA, VA, NC and WV). That, and I have a chase budget that supports roughly 7 to 10 days of Plains time each season. Consequently I won't spend that limited funds on subject matter I can get close to home (lightning, hail, shelf clouds, and so on). For me, I want great tornado setups before I drop the money to make a long trip. (And even then, I'm not devastated when I don't come home with a tornado.)
And for me, that great setup means at minimum, broad, strong SW flow (35-40kts min) aloft and deep moisture. That will always give you the most 'bang for your buck' in the Plains. That is, less chase days spent per tornado/supercell day. If you have the time and money to chase the more marginal and 'chancey' non-SW/weak flow or low moisture setups, I say go for it! For sure, you'll see something on occasion. But it's going to take you many more chase days (and money spent) to see a tornado or great supercell than if you spent the same amounts on a SW flow+deep moisture pattern.
If I had a fixed vacation that was locked in for right now, I'd probably go. Better to chase something than not at all. But if you're flexible and have limited funds to chase, it makes more sense to wait for patterns that are better suited for severe weather. That is, strong flow aloft and deep moisture, both of which I don't see much of a hint for on any long range progs right now (and therefore my continued pessimism). The second week of June is still too far out to call, so as many have said, it's not over yet.
Brian Press
EF1
Well, the 0Z GFS is looking interesting again. It's Holding that West Coast trough showing South West flow starting on June 4th all the way to the end of the 16 day period. Who knows!!!
Hey at least its something to look at. I have a good friend that gets me buddy passes form So. Cal, so I am flexible. I own my own wedding cinematography business so I am pretty flexible. My next bunch of Saturdays are booked up but I got week days to chase. Let's do this thing!!!
See ya out there,
Bp.
Hey at least its something to look at. I have a good friend that gets me buddy passes form So. Cal, so I am flexible. I own my own wedding cinematography business so I am pretty flexible. My next bunch of Saturdays are booked up but I got week days to chase. Let's do this thing!!!
See ya out there,
Bp.
Connor McCrorey
EF3
I'm actually seeing chase potential as early as Monday if a lot of things go right. I'm still optimistic about the season, even if I won't be able to chase a lot of it. I'll be in New York for 10 days in mid-June, but hopefully when I get back I'll have a few tornadoes waiting for me up north!
And Rob, that's Forrest Gump
And Rob, that's Forrest Gump
