Future of the season part deux

12z ECMWF now on board with the western US trough solution during the first week of June. Fellas I think this is the real deal. I expect SPC will have to call every one back to work during the first week of June.

We are going to be back in business soon. However it is probably too late for Oklahoma and Texas but I wouldn't be surprised to still see that one good June dryline event in the panhandles.
 
It looks more like a cut-off to me...one that retrogrades back over the eastern north Pacific, just like about every trough that either the GFS or ECMWF has put there that far out in the last 3 weeks. I'm optimistic and hoping, but losing faith day by day. Yesterday's trough hopes near the end of the 16-day forecast period were dashed as of the 00Z GFS run last night.
 
Jeff Duda replies to Jason McKittrick:
It looks more like a cut-off to me...one that retrogrades back over the eastern north Pacific, just like about every trough that either the GFS or ECMWF has put there that far out in the last 3 weeks. I'm optimistic and hoping, but losing faith day by day. Yesterday's trough hopes near the end of the 16-day forecast period were dashed as of the 00Z GFS run last night.

I think the op GFS is worthless beyond 10 days - let alone 16. The operational models - esp ECMWF - start to get interesting somewhere in the 6-10 day range. So the latest ECMWF 240 hr won't mean much unless it stays consistent through next half-dozen runs (a tall order). That said, this is the first time I recall in the past week that the EC seems to be getting rid of the annoying GOA and Hudson Bay lows. I'll keep watching.
 
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MANITOBA IN JUNE

prepare for plan B : CANADIAN PLAINS CHASING IN JUNE


what website, radar, satellite, forecast etc do you recommend for Manitoba ?

AND is there a Canadian wireless service company that offers affordable mobile wireless data plan for just a month ?
 
Good season to get laid off of my summer teaching job. That's about the only positive from my perspective - unless the end of June comes up big (anyone wanna buy a PS3 and Wii in case it does?).
 
No sympathy for TWC. They are just making up all the coverage they havent doen in the past 15 years. All those "severe updates" at 50 past the hour when they spent 5 minutes talking about how calm it was in the tropics while mentioning for 10 seconds the tornado ripping through Ok City or some other town during a 50+ tornado outbreak day...lol Saw that a number of times.

They covered Vortex2 for 1 reason only. To hype it up for ratings. They could care less about actually covering severe wx. THey saw how popular the Tornado Chaser series on Discovery was and tried to hop onto the bandwagon. Where have they been since the mid 90's??? If there was a tropical system coming into the bahamas or Florida they would drop the tornado chasers in a heartbeat. Maybe we will have a pathetic hurricane season and they will really become irrelevent.

I agree...I am not a big fan of TWC either..with the exception of Dr. Forbes and Lyons brief discussions and J.C. The A and B show is all about ratings is right..and cant stomach too much of it either. With the current situation and lack of Severe WX though its not doing much for their ratings either...lol But yeah they are really big on the tropics..if thats dead they wont know what to do..
 
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From Ed Berry's latest discussion: 5-23-09

[FONT=&quot]Cutting to the chase, I do expect the latter to shift poleward and bring the Northern Hemisphere storm track southward (including the lower 48 states) over the next 2-3 weeks. During roughly days 10-20 a couple of strong progressive troughs across the western into the central states (north of ~35-40 degrees) is still possible should there be some form of GWO 7-8-1 transition. Maybe there is still some hope for project VORTEX!

W.
[/FONT]
 
As few of you have been eluding to, I believe the pattern will shift to more favorable chasing weather in June. For the last 8-10 runs of the GFS favorable upper air patterns are coming back south from Canada and into the central/northern plains (around June 6/7). We are still looking well over 180+ hours out but this has started to become a consitant feature. The game might be over in the southern plains, but it could just be getting ready in other sections of the plains.
 
From Ed Berry's latest discussion: 5-23-09

[FONT=&quot]Cutting to the chase, I do expect the latter to shift poleward and bring the Northern Hemisphere storm track southward (including the lower 48 states) over the next 2-3 weeks. During roughly days 10-20 a couple of strong progressive troughs across the western into the central states (north of ~35-40 degrees) is still possible should there be some form of GWO 7-8-1 transition. Maybe there is still some hope for project VORTEX!

W.
[/FONT]

A fellow chaser recently turned me on to Berry's analyses, and I was just reading this one. While much of Berry's content is above my head, he ties it all up at the end in language meaningful to most storm chasers. The ridge has got to break down sometime, and flip-flopping aside, the long-range GFS has been hinting at that. Berry's writeup seems to corroborate it. So maybe all is not said and done. A mid- or late-June chase isn't what I'd envisioned for this year, but if that's what's on the menu, then I'll take it.
 
From Ed Berry's latest discussion: 5-23-09

[FONT=&quot]Cutting to the chase, I do expect the latter to shift poleward and bring the Northern Hemisphere storm track southward (including the lower 48 states) over the next 2-3 weeks. During roughly days 10-20 a couple of strong progressive troughs across the western into the central states (north of ~35-40 degrees) is still possible should there be some form of GWO 7-8-1 transition. Maybe there is still some hope for project VORTEX![/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]W.[/FONT]

It boils down to this: take a look at all the convection firing over the eastern Indian Ocean the past week; that is a pretty good signal a new MJO wave is developing. I've been waiting for this to happen, because if the convection can continue and an MJO wave develops and propagates eastward over the western Pacific it will produce a large ridge over eastern Asia and therefore develop a large trough over western North America. Also, as Berry mentions in his discussion about the Global Wind Oscillation or GWO; nearly everytime there is a spike in the GWO there will be some kind of global pattern change. There is no guarantee the western ridge will breakdown and it is too far out to determine how much it does breakdown.

If an MJO wave develops and moves eastward then expect troughing to develop over western N.Amer. in about 3 weeks. The pattern should only hold for 2 weeks, so I'm expecting the 2nd and 3rd weeks of June to be moderately active for the northern Plains.

Simon
 
I can tell you exactly when the season will get active again: June 9; the day i have to return to work! :mad:
I gaurantee a high risk covering all of tornado alley.
 
I can tell you exactly when the season will get active again: June 9; the day i have to return to work! :mad:
I gaurantee a high risk covering all of tornado alley.
I already called June 25-28th, 4 months ago.... before the ridge...... before anything. That's the weekend where I have to be at the University of Illinois attending fire college..... and absolutely can not chase.

For some SDS relief..... take a look at Northern Maine right now..... :cries:
 
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Ha! Thanks for that heads up, Danny--a sever tstorm in Caribou, ME! Golfball sized hail reported. What a messed up May this is; i can just picture the Vortex crew trying to maneuver around the hills of Northern Maine! :D
 
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