Future of the season part deux

The secret is to organize operation RIDGETEX next year. Put twice as much money, vehicles and researchers into studying ridging. TWC can call it "The Great Ridge Hunt. "Then we will have a fantastic year!

W.

BINGO! You got it Warren! I think that might be the ticket.
 
Its a shame considering all the TV time TWC has given the Vortex2 project and all the effort and money put into it but thats the weather..:rolleyes:
Typically here in N. IL we end up on the ring of fire and see lines of strong storms move SE into our area..
Although getting in on a supercell is prime I am content with bow echos,squall lines,MCS, etc, as long as it's impressive.
One thing at least I am saving $$s. Might be boring but not spending anything either..:cool:
Lets hope June rocks here.
 
At this point, all we REALLY know is that there is nothing particularly interesting going on for the next 7 days. I have about 1% of the expertise of most posters, but I've been paying attention long enough not to put a huge amount of trust in any model beyond 5 days, and certainly not beyond 10.

Of course, I also don't have any money riding on this, and many chasers and tour people do, so it is easy for me to be philosophical. :) Still, if I had to bet, I'd say we will get at least one more good run of chaseable severe weather before mid June.
 
OMG Dennis that should be good for a small ST suspension but it's worth every minute!!! Brought me to tears. Pretty rough season to say the least. If I had to guess I think that the "season" is over. That certainly doesn't mean that there will be a few more opportunities to see some good stuff. It's just going to take a little more hard work (forecasting) and a lot of luck!
 
Thanks, Connor. I will certainly add that to my vocabulary. And yes Klipsi, I well remember that day. High risk day...I picked up my chase partner Doren at the Omaha airport...we drove in 50mph plus winds westbound on I-80....punched south on hwy 15 towards Fairbury, Nebraska. Fueled up there...then heard a severe warned storm was just to the west of us. We knew tornadoes were being reported at that minute down in Kansas a little further....but we said "ah, what the heck....it's sooo close..let's make a quick run to the severe-warned cell" We couldn't see it due to dust and moisture in the air. Once we came up on it....it tornadoed almost immediately. Then...not far off in the distance.....a wedge tornado comes hauling butt up towards us. We got nice vid and photos of both. The ONLY other humans that saw that was a county sheriff that blazed past us. All this took place only about an hour after picking up Doren at the airport. Nicely done, huh! Stroke of good luck, for sure.
 
Its a shame considering all the TV time TWC has given the Vortex2 project and all the effort and money put into it but thats the weather..:rolleyes:

No sympathy for TWC. They are just making up all the coverage they havent doen in the past 15 years. All those "severe updates" at 50 past the hour when they spent 5 minutes talking about how calm it was in the tropics while mentioning for 10 seconds the tornado ripping through Ok City or some other town during a 50+ tornado outbreak day...lol Saw that a number of times.

They covered Vortex2 for 1 reason only. To hype it up for ratings. They could care less about actually covering severe wx. THey saw how popular the Tornado Chaser series on Discovery was and tried to hop onto the bandwagon. Where have they been since the mid 90's??? If there was a tropical system coming into the bahamas or Florida they would drop the tornado chasers in a heartbeat. Maybe we will have a pathetic hurricane season and they will really become irrelevent.
 
Actually, the 2006 season was pretty late and pretty terrible in Minnesota - although not as bad as 2007! The MPX CWA went until late, late July before having its first tornado in '06 - an unexpected spin-up in Yellow Medicine County (I believe - thinking off the top of my head), and it took a certain former forecaster (heh) to write and issue a Public Info Statement that very morning at the end of her mid shift, addressing the almost record late start to the season, for THAT to happen. August featured the Watonwan County F3 near Butterfield and St. James on the 1st, as well as 2 tornadoes on the 24th - one west of Courtland in Brown County and the other, the long-tracked F3 that followed a similar path to the 3/28/98 F3 that hit St. Peter. Of course, the "big" one was the September 16th F2 that hit Rogers in Hennepin County, as well as a few others that were found after the fact further west in Wright County.

Of course, if you want to rely on Minnesota to salvage the chase year, the northwestern most county is almost always a sure bet for at least one good tornado day each year! :-)

Ahh, okay - thanks for the info. I suppose it 'seemed' busier simply because alot of the action was in my 'neck of the woods' here in Southern MN.

So how much of a dry winter for the south would you guys say has played a role in the relatively slow chase season so far? Of course, this dry spell for severe storms we are currently experiencing maybe wouldn't be so painful if we were able to get the moisture needed earlier this season with the promising setups we had that ended up lacking the moisture...
 
So how much of a dry winter for the south would you guys say has played a role in the relatively slow chase season so far? Of course, this dry spell for severe storms we are currently experiencing maybe wouldn't be so painful if we were able to get the moisture needed earlier this season with the promising setups we had that ended up lacking the moisture...


IMO the dry winter in the south isn't the culprit for such a dismal tornado season in the Plains this year. We lacked moisture early in the season because of cold front intrusions which wiped out the GOM and this tends to happen almost every year early in the season. I believe this season has sucked because we haven't had the traditional southwest flow/dryline setups. Nearly every setup this year has been along a cold front and while a dryline was often present, it wasn't a true dryline setup. Its as if this season went from March to June to July....skipping the setups you typically see in April, May and early June. The calender says May, but walk outside here in Oklahoma and it looks and feels like July.

At this point I believe this season ranks up there with 2000 as the worst I have ever experienced. I only chased once in 2006 so I don't have much of an opinion about that year.
 
If I were a betting man, I would wager that the 18Z 372 hour prog shows ridging where the 12Z 384 shows a trough. More than half the ensemble members have a ridge in the West.

Ok I realize that it is doing to be a bummer for awhile here but optimizism is the only this I have left :o)..... and on the betting this.... not betting against the death ridge....just hoping
 
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