Future of the season part deux

[joel ewing]

Well, perhaps it's not that easy to just push things back a year. Who knows what type of bondage Vort2 is in funding wise. This year's budget may NEED to get used up in order to receive the bucks to proceed next year. Anybody remember $500 toilet seats? Not to de-rail the thread here...but I personally believe that just about anything the government has their hand in gets screwed up..and to not toe the line as far as playing this year out the way it's been sold to the "grant-master" would seem risky to me. But I don't know the first thing about it, really. My thoughts on this are just a hunch.
Personally, I think I should put in for a government grant so next spring I can study the effects of "HAARP"....as I'm pretty sure we would all agree that this outfit is the REAL reason for the blocky weather pattern that's holding us chasers hostage.

 

[Kem Poyner]

remember when i said you just have to play the cards that are delt? funniest thing just happened...Im sitting at the table waiting for my cards when this guy walks into the casino and shoots the dealer in the head. Think I will go play the slots now.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I think this very odd pattern just goes to show you that unique events do occur. It could be just the opposite, with a continuous risk for major severe, day after day. I still have some (little) faith that the season may turn around, although the climatology window is closing. I do not believe this is a **true** summer pattern yet, but a freak abnormality. For example, there have been no true NW flow events yet, the usual spring to summer transitional pattern, so who knows. It will be interesting to read Ed Berry's next blog.

W.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

I blame this pattern on TWC's "the great tornado hunt" phrase they used from the get go. Way to go TWC. Mother nature was all like, "Don't get cocky!"...and look where we are now. It's almost like she doesn't want to be studied. "Study this!" she says, as she struts to the north pole, with her hand and one finger in the air behind her.

It was pretty cocky attitude fot them to say all of that - that is true.
"God opposes the proud, but shows favor with the humble". I guess they never heard or read that before. Maybe I should send them that quote, they need to hear it...

I am also out on the Plains right now, as it now looks like I will e spending the next week in my motel room finding other things to do. It's raining - and will continue to rain - in this NW corner of Iowa. Might as wll redeem the time doing something useful. "Indoor Motel Macro Photography Training" or "How to take an uninteresting photographic subject and exploit it regardless".

If they show the Vortex 2 clip on TWC one more time - I'll scream!
EEEIIIIAAAAYYYAAA!!!
X50

Even the Canada option isn't viable - IMO. At least, it hasn't shown anything even halfway interesting so far. Nice going TWC...

 

[Scott Nelson]

Isn't part of their mission to observe "non tornadic" thunderstorms as well? I'm sure they assumed this might happen and know they still have info they can learn by surrounding whatever does form with 15 radars.

 

[Chip Redmond]

I think V2 has been making the best out of the situation they have. Although, calling it for a bit to save funds may not be a terrible idea.

This has been a very frustrating spring and nothing seems to predict any real break in the pattern. The low over Florida is as mentioned the only hope for the next week or so, but I don't forsee any severe weather on the east coast due to lack of instability. Although, if the low can shift westward enough to go up the west side of the Mississippi valley then perhaps the east plains/ozarks could see some action. I wonder though if it could get its act together and go tropical.... both the gulf and atlantic are quite warm already...

Chip

 

[Bob Hartig]

Ironically, my new Dell Latitude ATG just arrived via Fed Ex. Looks like I'll have plenty of time to get acquainted with it before I need it, at least as far as storm chasing is concerned. This morning's GFS has dashed my last glimmer of hope for the first week of June.

If any good is coming out of the present pattern, it's that this discussion of it is proving illuminating for me. I don't normally see the long-range outlook discussed so in-depth as it has been in this thread.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Hey check out the new experimental days 25 through 40 outlook issued by SPC. I think this is valid the day after vortex ends.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

It is a huge waste of time looking at the deterministic runs of the GFS for any sort of useful information- huge flip-flops are basically the norm. A great example is for early June:

(the times do not match up exactly but you get the picture)


06Z run- OMG there is no hope! I give up, there will be no more chasing this season (gnashing teeth)




12Z run: well, look at the flow in the northern Plains- wow, early June might be OK after all




This type of gyration is all too common- the ensembles may offer a bit more of a hint, but they too can be mighty wrong,

Bottom line- I still have the first two weeks of June to chase- and really I have no earthly clue whether it will suck donkey B%$#* or be great or be OK.
We all will have to wait probably another week before getting any kind of a good handle on it.

Parting shot:



Wow- look at that 384 hour prog! Tornado city baby! :lol:

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I quit getting excited about the 384hr GooFuS a few days ago. The GooFuS has been showing this promising trough about every other run for nearly two weeks now. The problem is it keeps pushing back the development of this trough with every run. Originally we were all thinking it could develop the last week of May, then it appeared the first week of June might offer hope. Now, the GooFuS has slowed the development of this trough to the second week of June. IMO this solution isn't realistic. Ladies and gentlemen, I think we are witnessing one of the worst tornado season on records (from a chaser's perspective). I think this year is going to rank up there with 1988, 2000 and 2006.

 

[Bob Hartig]

It is a huge waste of time looking at the deterministic runs of the GFS for any sort of useful information- huge flip-flops are basically the norm.

A point well taken. Thanks for the illustrations, Matt.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I still dont think its a waste to discuss. It is a waste to get excited without consistency in the runs. Discussion is never a waste though...the models showed this pattern far out and none of us were surprised except those who, back then were claiming "bla bla bla why are you even looking at the models that far out" well, now you know why.

Im trying to remain optimistic but I dont have much left in me. If a better pattern isnt shown by June 15th thats when Im throwing in the towel and planning a week long camping/fishing type trip. I will still have a good 10 days at my disposal for the one day surprise events that can pop up in the summer, especially around here...afterall, another Roanoke day here in IL can happen any day in the summer.

Thats how I fight death ridges, keep myself flexible and available to chase whenever.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks for posting those GFS samples. Just for fun, lets see how long it lasts. Someone post an update in 24 hours or when it vaporizes.

W.

 

[Darren Addy]

Just for a LITTLE perspective, how about a comparison of May '07, May '08, and May '09?

 

[jamesmseitz]

I know the GFS runs are at best hypothetical..... but at least it shows hope )