Future of the season part deux

[Matthew Crowther]

I keep looking faithfully at every run of the op GFS, Op ECMWF, GEFS, SEF etc for any sort of small glimmer of light for the chase season, and my hopes seem to keep getting dashed.
There is still a small chance for a rotating storm or two in west TX or SW Oklahoma early next week (Monday seems like the most likely day), but in general we seem to have gone
into a time warp with the jet up in a mid-summer position, with no end in sight. The very end of the op GFS keeps teasing with hints of troughiness in the west but it is always beyond 240 hours. The EC
has been unrelentingly horrendous in its depiction, with no sign of any sort of good pattern- by 240 hours the blocked up low is still in the GOA, with no signs of progression. The ensembles are a bit nebulous after 10 days but the mean shows the western ridge for a long time to come.

Still have some ever diminishing hope for June, but an evil voice in he back of my head is whispering "forget it, the season is over". The V2 jinx is some powerful voodoo.

 

[Darren Addy]

And smear our faces with ritual paint, dance in circles, and sacrifice chickens.

**Slaps forehead**
Darn it Bob! That's the formula for male enhancement. For ridge breaking you sacrifice a goat!

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I think that's one of the only times being displaced from the "alley" has an advantage. Our season never really "ends" in June when things shut down out west. They're just lifted up and over the alley, and then back down towards the midwest along the heat dome.

I will take the "real" season in the Alley over any season elsewhere. The season doesn't always end out here in June. While it is typical for things to wind down here as we get closer to the start of July, I remember several significant severe weather events in July and August. In fact, the summer of 1994 was one of the most active summers I have ever witnessed. We got stuck in a northwest flow pattern for most of June and July and just about every day or two we would have storms fire on the front range of the Rockies in CO and track ese across OK/KS (arriving in Tulsa around 1-3am) and into AR the next morning. I can recall many of these nights where the storms were tornadic all the way down into OK.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Chase operations for what currently looks like the final 6-7 days of the chase season will involve CAPE based forecasts in the western most regions. (Western/SW Texas, eastern New Mexico and possibly eastern Colorado). As noted by others, the best chance of a rotating storm appears to be in this region late in the weekend or early next week. Moisture should begin to move northward in the next 24-48 hours. I think the possibility of buoyancy waves and/or outflows in this region (storm, MCS or orographically induced) may enhance storm modes and certainly provide higher probabilities of a good storm than gambling on currently unexisting shear further north.

Good luck to all.

W.

 

[Bob Hartig]

**Slaps forehead**
Darn it Bob! That's the formula for male enhancement. For ridge breaking you sacrifice a goat!

Well, crap. That explains a lot. Sorry for letting everyone down, letting this ridge develop the way it has. On the other hand, I'm rather pleased with other developments. But enough of that. I'll switch to the goat and see if that doesn't fix things. Gimme a week or two.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Can V2 go to Canada without much hassle?

 

[Mike Johnston]

Can V2 go to Canada without much hassle?

Canada is outside their domain anyway.

Heck, southeast Kansas is even outside their domain.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I will take the "real" season in the Alley over any season elsewhere. The season doesn't always end out here in June. While it is typical for things to wind down here as we get closer to the start of July, I remember several significant severe weather events in July and August. In fact, the summer of 1994 was one of the most active summers I have ever witnessed. We got stuck in a northwest flow pattern for most of June and July and just about every day or two we would have storms fire on the front range of the Rockies in CO and track ese across OK/KS (arriving in Tulsa around 1-3am) and into AR the next morning. I can recall many of these nights where the storms were tornadic all the way down into OK.

Hey now, I thought my wording was hinting enough that I would take living out there during April-June over living here, but that a down year like this might for once have a perk or two for the transplants. I also had quotation marks over the "ends" for the plains season... I know there is no true end, but a large downward trend in frequency is certainly usually noted.

 

[Jeff Duda]

While I'm still hopeful for an active June, I have really started to lose faith in any major organized events occurring for awhile. The GFS always seems to have some troughiness out in the west after hour 240, yet the trough never swings out into the plains. It just sits there. I see the same thing run after run. Makes me think the GFS likes to trend towards a trough in the far west in late periods, but to keep them out west.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Well after a peak at the 12z medium range models I am thinking about dismantling my chase vehicle and selling it for parts. I have been looking for signs of hope in the out periods and I haven't seen a glimmer in weeks. Models have been very consistent with this blocky pattern. This mornings runs look even worse as far as chasing is concernd. PNA pattern looks to strengthen even more during the first week of June. I saw Cantori and Bettes talking about the possibility of vortex expanding their domain to Montana and the Dakotas. This mornings models look like the best chase opportunities maybe in northern Alberta. IMO vortex should just pack it in and see if they can't reallocate some funds to extend next years chase or to reschedual this season for 2011. I think I speak for many of us when I say chasing multicell storms that produce peas and 50 mph winds is a waste of tornado research money. I am also getting tired of watching Mike Bettes try to make virga exciting and scary. So far TWC's coverage of vortex is nothing more than a bad rendition of "On The Road" with Charles Kuralt.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I blame this pattern on TWC's "the great tornado hunt" phrase they used from the get go. Way to go TWC. Mother nature was all like, "Don't get cocky!"...and look where we are now. It's almost like she doesn't want to be studied. "Study this!" she says, as she struts to the north pole, with her hand and one finger in the air behind her.

 

[Dan Robinson]

That is about as poleward as a jet as I've ever seen for next week. Forget southern Canada, time to chase the Arctic. I guess you'll need either airboats or Cessnas, no roads up there. Probably a better chance of moisture advecting from the Indian Ocean up there than from the Gulf.

I'm starting to root for that low in the Gulf. If it can wrap up a little more and move NE, there may be some ops on the east coast and upslope action in the Appalachians.

 

[Mark Blue]

That is about as poleward as a jet as I've ever seen for next week. Forget southern Canada, time to chase the Arctic. I guess you'll need either airboats or Cessnas, no roads up there.

I was leaning more toward an Artic Cat or Ski-Doo if the jet moves any further north!! I'm wondering if my wife and I shouldn't pack it in for this year. We'll give it a couple more days but the forecast is so bleak it's ridiculous.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I really don't understand why they do not just cut their losses now, abort the project and either extend next year or add an additional period in 2011. If you really need the data, that would be the most logical thing to do, despite the issues with re-scheduling. Trying to chase in the northern regions they are now working is very difficult because the roads suck.

W.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Canada is outside their domain anyway.

Heck, southeast Kansas is even outside their domain.

The domain that you see on the websites and V2 documentation is a guide, and one that would work if this were a normal year. Alas, we've been transplanted to a mid-summer pattern without the benefit of good, deep moisture. We have operated out of the outlined domain in the recent past, and we most certainly will in the near future. It is in everyone's best interest to go wherever there are any chances for any substantial convection since there have been very, very limited opportunities to collect any data on supercells, and there have been 0 opportunities to collect data on tornadoes. Given the forecast through the next week (and myabe beyond), this probably won't change.

That said, crossing the international borders isn't really an option. Most folks don't have passports, and I'm not sure how gov't regulations would fit in with a project of this size (in terms of permission and licensing to radiate, etc). Regardless, given how the forecasts look, I wouldn't be surprised to see us get very close to the borders (on either side of the U.S.). If there are supercells forecast for an area outside the domain, in areas that are adjacent to the domain (e.g. southwestern Texas, North Dakota, eastern Wyoming, etc), I think we'll have to take them. Opportunities like this (having many different instruments in the field, etc) are extremely limited, so we need to take full advantage of having all personnel and equipment in the field at the same time.

I don't think I can recall too many Mays during which the flow across nearly the entire N-S length of the U.S. is as anemic as it's forecast to be. There is almost no gradient in 500 mb heights across the Plains -- something that is much more probable in July than in mid-May. At least 2006 featured some supercells! I'm sure there will be localized, 'mesoscale accident'-type events as soon as we can get the good, deep moisture (65+ Tds) back into the Plains, but it's very difficult to to do much very low moisture AND very weak flow and shear. I'll remain open to a localized, 'surprise' chase as soon as the moisture returns. Of course, when this happens is anyone's guess. Without much flow aloft, there's little in the way of lee troughing, which means there's little way to get the deep Gulf moisture back into the Plains. We'll just have to keep relying on evapotranspiration to enhance the moisture, despite how slowly that can work.

What we really need is some cold Canadian air to invade the northern or central U.S.. Without some deep cold air, we can't expect any significant mid-level height gradients, which means we can't expect anything much in the way of flow aloft. Of course, to bring some colder air southward towards I80 or I70, we're going to need the upper-air blocking pattern to break. I assume much of the problem is related to something upstream of North America which is throwing us into these blocking patterns (both Rex and Omega).

Note, I do not speak on behalf of the project in any sort, and I have no role in the decision-making process that determines where the armada targets or resides. This is entirely my opinion.