Future of the season part deux

[Matthew Crowther]

I know the GFS runs are at best hypothetical..... but at least it shows hope )

If I were a betting man, I would wager that the 18Z 372 hour prog shows ridging where the 12Z 384 shows a trough. More than half the ensemble members have a ridge in the West.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Thanks Matt and Darren for the figures and info. The svr reports data are very chaotic. For example, if you look at the first 3 weeks of May in 2007, 2008 and 2009, there's huge scatter in the days an locations of events. On the other hand, those 3 weeks each year had about 6 or 7 days with 10 or more tornado reports, even though the years - and our impressions of them at the time - were very different.

Might be interesting to look at the bigger picture. Does anyone know a good source of historical data (on the scale of days, weeks or maybe a month) showing, say height or temperature anomalies over N America? That might give a better idea of what the atmosphere was really doing.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The extended-range models (GFS, ensembles and ECMWF) are only useful when a.) they all agree and b.) they are consistent from run to run. Totally worthless when there is no agreement nor consistency, but useful for long-term chase planning when there is.

That said, I've seen no agreement nor consistency on anything hopeful in the Plains for the past week. There is hope for NW flow lightning opportunities here at home though (eastern US).

 

[Eric Bucsela]

The extended-range models (GFS, ensembles and ECMWF) are...totally worthless when there is no agreement nor consistency

Along the lines of what Matt showed, here are snapshots of the GFS forecast (384, 336, 264, 216 hr) valid one week from today.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

B.O.H.I.C.A Fellas-pack it up and enjoy! I am really glad I am not the V2 leader that has to deal with the accountants over this mess.

 

[GlennMartin]

Perhaps the last two weeks or so of June will be very active. We have been cooling particularly over the last 15 months, the sun is quiet and even though I have no evidence, this season could be exceptionally tardy. For those sitting in hotels now that doesn't help but there is some chance along the northern tier into the lakes for localized organized svr if moisture can work its way gradually northward over the next several days. Remember errors are amplified with each x day out from model initializations so much beyond 8-10 days is on the order of speculation anyways. Best of luck out there.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

FWIW, I look at the 16 day GFS twice everyday and I will say that IMO, this mornings 12z is the most realistic sign of hope I have seen in at least two weeks. I wouldn't go as far as to say that the transition will occur on the day indicated because the models are not that skillful that far out. But I would go as far as to say there is likely to be an end to this PNA pattern give or take 3 or 4 days from the 7th of June. Not to mention the fact that the Vortex 2 curse is scheduled to end on the 15th. I bet they are lamenting their decision to allow TWC to tag along not the press they had hoped for.


Just peaked at the 18z GFS, it's looking even better than the 12z around the 7th. For those keeping track that is two runs in a row showing a transition to stronger more southwesterly flow as we end the first week of June. I personally think we are biginning to see the light at the end of the "ridge".


BTW did anyone notice the outlook I posted earlier, just say'n.....

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I'm still holding out hope that the Northern Plains will see a good tornado season this year. It was fairly active in 2006 in Southern Minnesota in July and August if I remember right...

 

[Matthew Crowther]

OK, now we have 2 runs is a row of the GFS bringing a good pattern in for early June so I would have lost the bet. Still will not get excited for at least several more days. Hope is alive, but still on life support.

 

[Steve Miller TX]

 

[Jason Boggs]

 

[David Draun]

Yup this says it all, lol. Even outlined the area of concern in Cubbie blue.

 

[Karen Trammell]

I'm still holding out hope that the Northern Plains will see a good tornado season this year. It was fairly active in 2006 in Southern Minnesota in July and August if I remember right...

Actually, the 2006 season was pretty late and pretty terrible in Minnesota - although not as bad as 2007! The MPX CWA went until late, late July before having its first tornado in '06 - an unexpected spin-up in Yellow Medicine County (I believe - thinking off the top of my head), and it took a certain former forecaster (heh) to write and issue a Public Info Statement that very morning at the end of her mid shift, addressing the almost record late start to the season, for THAT to happen. August featured the Watonwan County F3 near Butterfield and St. James on the 1st, as well as 2 tornadoes on the 24th - one west of Courtland in Brown County and the other, the long-tracked F3 that followed a similar path to the 3/28/98 F3 that hit St. Peter. Of course, the "big" one was the September 16th F2 that hit Rogers in Hennepin County, as well as a few others that were found after the fact further west in Wright County.

Of course, if you want to rely on Minnesota to salvage the chase year, the northwestern most county is almost always a sure bet for at least one good tornado day each year!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Yup this says it all, lol. Even outlined the area of concern in Cubbie blue.

We don't want to wait another 100+ years for a good season...

 

[Warren Faidley]

The secret is to organize operation RIDGETEX next year. Put twice as much money, vehicles and researchers into studying ridging. TWC can call it "The Great Ridge Hunt. "Then we will have a fantastic year!

W.