Future of the season part deux

[Derek Weston]

Hmmm... seeing some things late in the period here. Lately the 12z seems to be battling the 0z in regards to any decent troughing... but, here again on today's 12z we're seeing a definite pattern improvement. Heck, even placed a nice chase day in Kansas on the 7th and then into Miss river valley area the next day.

Now, still might materialize as nothing, or marginal chasing -- but at least seems we're possibly trending towards a more severe weather conductive pattern. Before we weren't seeing anything... now... we're seeing hope, at least.

Hopefully it keeps up.

 

[mikegeukes]

6 to 10 Day Outlook and the 8 to 14 Day Outlook is out/ 5/24/09

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Mike

 

[Andrew Butler]

It's all good folks. Rest up for the next 10 days and prepare for the Apocalypse. It's a sure thing.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nglemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false

 

[cdcollura]

Good day...

After June 13th when Vortex 2 packs up and ends operations for the 09 season, things should heat up nicely.

A-Men to that!

I remember in my past as the NUMBER OF PEOPLE I brought on a chase was directly related to how many people I was gonna "disappoint" AT MY EXPENSE ;-(

The more HYPE = The more JINX

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Murphy's Law. Works everytime! Usually in conjunction with Hofstadter's law.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Wow what a massive shift in the 00z GFS tonight with successive chase opportunities starting as early as 144 hours out.

 

[Chris Allington]

Matts right... hope it verifies.

A good set up starting May 31st, then we are open for business from June 3-5. Check out the below map for CAPE at 00z June 5th. (Thursday evening)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nglemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false

Some pretty good directional shear with that too, atleast in the areas I checked in Northern KS and Central NE.

 

[joel ewing]

Future of the season

What is Hofstader's Law?

 

[Chad Cowan]

Oh how fickle this hobby of ours is. That 0z GFS run ought to make this thread interesting.

... waiting up for the 0z Euro ...

 

[Dave Kaplow]

What is Hofstader's Law?

If I remember correctly, it's something like "it's always worse than you think, even when you take Hofstader's Law into account."

Or something like that.

 

[Stan Rose]

Yeah, that 00Z run really is dangling a carrot--a return of a real dryline as early as early next week! But it's on thin ice, its still holding the trough off the west coast instead of bringing it inland, the only difference from the previous 12+ runs is that its no longer cut-off (as in the 00Z EC) But its the most optimistic thing ive seen for a few days, so here's hoping...
OK, the 06Z run reverted to the same ol' ugly blocked up pattern.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The 0z does look pretty good, similar to May 22-26 of last year in terms of how it is just sitting there over the Plains, however the N Plains this go around which is fine with me. Anyway the 6z and 18z are almost always worthless, they can either get your hopes up or shatter dreams so I don't even look at those two anymore, but I did happen to glance at it out of boredom and it is showing exactly what happened about a week before May 22-26, the trough was forecasted to be stuck in the west and not able to get east, but in the end it al worked out. Yea I've only been doing this for 5 years but more times than not I've seen the weather goes in our favor eventually and the fact it keeps trying to show an active pattern gives me the idea we will likely see the second half of the season ramp up here soon.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

What is Hofstader's Law?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter's_law

You become very familiar with it if you work on cars.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

It would be easier to get excited about this if the ECMWF would join the party.

The 0z does look pretty good, similar to May 22-26 of last year in terms of how it is just sitting there over the Plains, however the N Plains this go around which is fine with me. Anyway the 6z and 18z are almost always worthless, they can either get your hopes up or shatter dreams so I don't even look at those two anymore, but I did happen to glance at it out of boredom and it is showing exactly what happened about a week before May 22-26, the trough was forecasted to be stuck in the west and not able to get east, but in the end it al worked out. Yea I've only been doing this for 5 years but more times than not I've seen the weather goes in our favor eventually and the fact it keeps trying to show an active pattern gives me the idea we will likely see the second half of the season ramp up here soon.

 

[Stan Rose]

Yep, the 00Z was an outlier, the 12z run is back to the death ridge, even uglier than before.