Future of the season part deux

[Eric Bucsela]

I meant the high in the southwestern US/western Mexico. It's still lingering there, especially on the ECMWF

Yeah, I see what you mean - at least through 96 hr. It's also there in today's CPC 500mb heights blend for days 8-14, which may explain why they continue to predict above normal temps in the West through the period (and normal to cool in the East). Dang.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I think if we're going to get one more shot at a traditional, classic plains severe weather/tornado outbreak, that high is going to have to be pushed very far south into Mexico so we can get a broad swath of southwest flow across the central US.

 

[Stan Rose]

The 240h 12Z EC prog looks sufficiently far south for me, Andrew

 

[Kem Poyner]

backtracking

Well, I am out here chasing..did not cancel my trip. It has really not been too bad for a season most said was dead. Got cool video yesterday of the TIV setting up to drive into a mean looking wall cloud South of Woodward Ok. It croaked before it could produce, but the rotation in the storm lasted for an hour or so. On a storm South of Dallas now..really looking good.
I have had much worse chase vacations than this! Things look like they are looking to get better in a few days too. Not every supercell is going to fall in your lap. But Im sure the backtracking about statements made will start soon..it already has...you can't predict what might happen this time of year.
Mr. Lazy

 

[Warren Faidley]

Both the ECMWF and GFS are leaning towards dryline SVR beginning on Sunday in the western central plains.

W.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I like Monday in the southern plains

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

The NWS is now saying that the Missouri Valley region of Iowa should see a severe storm this Saturday. That would be too cool - not much of a drive for me. But even if it is 400 miles away, I will be there with all of my batteries charged and my tank full.
Read: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
I am hopeful. Now all I need to do is find something to do in the meantime...

 

[Derek Weston]

The NWS is now saying that the Missouri Valley region of Iowa should see a severe storm this Saturday. That would be too cool - not much of a drive for me. But if it even 400 miles away, I will be there with all of my batteries charged and my tank full.
Read: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
I am hopeful. Now all I need to do is find something to do in the meantime...

Sunday looks to be the day across Iowa... at least according to the runs I've been looking at. Potential for a decent event.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Definitely some western 'troughiness' showing up on the long ranges, but pretty far west and north. Still not much strong flow coming over where you'd really want it (farther south).

Looks better than the current situation (IE, more 'diamonds in the rough' to work with) but so far nothing showing up to make the flexible out-of-Plains-residency camp start booking flights and blocking off schedules - yet!

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I think the plains will start to get active right around the time I leave for New York...

 

[joel ewing]

Mr. Poyner, geez man....I have no idea what you're referring to.... "back-tracking??" It's all lost on me. When I saw that you'd posted again, I was hoping that you'd have a tube to stuff in our faces.
Anyways....man...these LAZY days of summer without good storms are getting to me. I should be more like that LAZY azz dog of mine at my feet and just forget about it. Maybe I should just kick back...put on the headphones...and listen to that new rapper "Lay-Z". If his stuff is lame, I'll probably just want to LAY down and catch some ZEEE's in my black leather LAZY Boy recliner. Not much else to do under this disgusting ridge.
Switching gears here, I just bumped my flight into the alley backwards a second time now....and will begin my chase June 2nd. Looking forward to seeing old friends out there. First one's on me!

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Examining the 00Z model suite and ensembles, I think that thet the pattern shift is still going to happen, but unfortunately probably not for another week. The Op GFS suggests that the
Sun-Mon time frame may have a shot at supercells in the SD/NE/IA/MN area Sunday and in KS/OK Monday ahead of the next low/front, but based on the ensemble mean and the ECMWF I feel that this threat may not be all that great
as the flow looks to be overdone with the ridge not flattening as much as the GFS says. Still bears watching since I can chase beginning Sunday.

Then the EC and GFS ensemble mean continue to very slowly progress the EPAC trough far enough for SW flow to commence in the western Plains, but Thursday may be first day anything decent happens.

So unfortunately V2 looks to have at least 4 down days and maybe as many as 8.

 

[cdcollura]

A New Hope ... A Glimmer Of Hope?

Good day all,

A New Hope ... A Glimmer Of Hope?

Hope so...

It is appearing this long-awaited "pattern shift" is on the not-so-distant horizon.

many models are bringing one-last "non-standard" teaser setup as early as May 30 (Sat) with NW flow and a warm front type setup in NE, IA, and into SD.

After this setup, there should be a lull for a day or two, and then a major Pacific trough should ease over the Rockies by the June 2-3 time frame ... Yes, like I heard a lot on here - A repeat of 2005 will certainly be more welcome than 2006.

I am hoping to take a few days, or even my planned trip, sometime in early-mid June for an active week ... It just takes ONE DAY, however to make a whole year (see below for what I mean - June 12, 2005 in TX).

http://www.sky-chaser.com/mwcl05b.htm#JUNE12

The point is that you can be in the plains chasing next to nothing for almost 3 weeks, then go out for ONE WEEKEND in June, and see a cyclic supercell proiducing a dozen tornadoes.

I am very grateful I stood down from going on the May 21 to June 1 chase-trip, and it came as a good thing since 1: I would have missed the stuff here in FL this week for not much else. And 2: My boss's husband passed away so there is NO WAY I could have got out of the office this week (May 26-29).

I know this is about 120+ hours out, so lets hope we do not have the advertised pacific trough "pinch-off" to a Baja cutoff low / rex-block setup again - That would be the June "spoiler" if that happens.

I see TWC with their ever-so-hyped VORTEX II footage, and it shows them taking "travel days" and looking at wild-life, parks, etc. Makes my eyes and ears bleed ... I feel for them.

No pun intended, but we can wait until June 13 or so, when VORTEX II is finished, then the sky really SHOULD fall ;-)

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, im officially done crying about my coming 11 days of chasing. Im confident now that there will be at least marginal chases for a good portion of that time, and marginal is good enough for me. The where and when are going to flop around quite a bit with this pattern, but i hope the last couple GFS runs keep trending in a positive direction, because if they do the amount of driving will be minimal. Hope to see some of you out there

 

[Matthew Crowther]

12Z GFS looks quite encouraging beginning this weekend and especially later next week. Still a chance this will all go bust, but with my vacation beginning Sunday, I will remain cautiously optimistic for at least a few supercells in the first 10 days of June.