Future of the season part deux

[Derek Weston]

The ECMWF does NOT break down the ridge or move the low much through 240 hours- that worries me as it is by far the best LR model.

Not good, but I haven't noticed the ECMWF being any better this season. Maybe I haven't followed the models as closely as some of you... but... I've even noticed the ECMWF siding with the GFS at times... (that, the GFS leading the way)

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Where are you getting any sort of detailed information on the ECMWF? I go to Dupage and you get like 5 products.
I haven't checked it for this system, but there has to be some place with a higher resolution or a more detailed look at each run of the ECMWF. I know the NWS has access to it if I remember right because Umschied spilled the beans on that last year lol. l
I agree the ECMWF has been slightly better, but they have all been god awful and the GFS is more detailed as mentioned above so it is typically going to be the model of choice in the LR.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I only get slightly more detailed info (prcecip and maps every 12 hours -I pay about $5 a month for it)- only the Govt and private industry willing to shell out mega $$ get to see the full suite of products, incl ensembles.

BTW the 12Z GFS has reversed once again and shows the low ejecting next weekend LOL, I am waiting with bated breath to see the Euro.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Derek Weston wrote: I've even noticed the ECMWF siding with the GFS at times...

Good - I like competition...and surprises! Also, as Matt pointed out, I see the 12z GFS does bring the wave inland next weekend - and FWIW, sets up a beautiful western trough the following weekend. Haven't given up yet!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yep the GFS went back to what it was showing the last 2 days with the exception of the 0z last night. That makes me believe that what we saw last night was just a fluke run because this was what it was looking like 2-3 days ago and even on the 12z and 18z runs yesterday. Something to note is the NAM also breaks down the high in Mexico by Monday which makes me believe the ECMWF is out to lunch. We'll see!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Man, I want to go chasing SO BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PLEASE let the 12Z GFS verify. It's showing all next weekend to be good - with TX Panhandle and western KS opportunities, with a prolonged multi-day warm front/dryline triple point type setup.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

WOW! The GFS (notice I don't use the term GooFuS when it is showing a pattern I like) develops a very favorable synoptic pattern for severe thunderstorm events from next weekend and beyond as it forecasts a longwave troughing pattern developing across the western US. We all sit with fingers crossed just hoping 2009 goes out with a bang. I am very tempted to go ahead and take the week of June 8-12 off from work to chase.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Im glad Im not the only one who noticed this, although the last run I looked at was 18Z yesterday and I wont be able to see anything till I get home from work today [by then the 18Z will be out so its usually all I ever look at.]

It even had some awesome setups for us here in the northern IL/IA/MN regime with 4000+ CAPE, LIs at -10 and about 80 degrees of shear.

If I were a praying man, id be praying right about now. Hope is not dead yet and the scenario the GFS is showing to me seems very possible. Right now weve got all these shortwaves beating up the ridge and slowly weakening it, hence the meager setups this weekend...if they can keep coming, the ridge may break down completely and allow the trough to boot it out and take over. It almost seems like its already happening since the ridge is flattening and well have a more zonal flow to start next week....it can go either way from there...

 

[Brett Roberts]

Well, it appears last night's 00z ECMWF was the peak in crappiness for chasers (at least temporarily), as the 12z run has trended back toward more progression of the trough. It's not quite as tasty as the 12z GFS; the Sonoran ridge maintains more strength and the West Coast trough is more positively-tilted when it ejects next weekend, but it's still a far cry from the retrograding-into-the-Pacific nightmare from last night's runs. Part of me wishes the models would just converge on that solution now if that's what's ultimately going to happen, so that we can bury the 2009 "season" and move on with our lives. But given this morning's runs, it looks like at least another couple days of frantically refreshing NCEP and ECMWF every 12 hours for glimmers of hope is in store...

 

[Scott McPartland]

One thing I'm finding encouraging through all the chaos and horribleness is that the GFS ensembles have been very consistent now for about three days in bringing in that western low/trough. The clustering is very impressive, and it continues on the latest 12z run. The 12z Op run seems to have gone back to agreeing with the consensus.

Check out how "off" the control was with the consensus on the 06z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ens500_06z29May2009_534_f192.png

Now it's back in sync with the consensus as of the 12z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ens500_12z29May2009_534_f192.png

Look at that clustering.

And yes, it seems that the 12z Euro has changed it's tune a bit as well. Not a great looking run by any means, but it is now ejecting the low into the plains next weekend. Could this be a switch to a more GFS frame of mind?

This has been the roller coaster ride from hell lately, I think we can all agree with that. Dave Lewison and I are still on a day by day basis. Hopefully this will all pan out, but I won't get my hopes up again darnit!!, they've been dashed too many times already, lol. One way or another, this will be a season to remember. Let's hope it goes out with a bang!

Scott

 

[Austin Funderburgh]

Anybody else seeing a decent DL setup on Friday the 5th? Solid yet breakable cap. Plenty of instability in the TX Panhandle and W OK. By all means though I'm no seasoned forecasting veteran so I'd love to hear some input on it.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Me thinks if you skim the last hundred or so posts in this thread you'll find more input than you'd ever care to see.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

The 12Z Euro is a lot better than the previous two runs, and does eject at least a piece of the western upper low- the 18Z GFS
is not as spectacular as the 12Z run, but does looks pretty good beginning next weekend.
Here is my current take:

The only real chase day in the next 7 or so days: Monday, most likely in central IA.
This will be followed by 3-4 down days as the front blasts back south.

Then finally a better-than-even shot for a more typical Plains severe/tornado pattern for a week and perhaps longer. (how's that for sticking my neck out

)

 

[Ken Johnson]

It looks like several NW flow type days in the central/southern plains...
It looks like the front stalls or lifts back northward across Texas/OK around the middle to later part of next week. Decent shear with mid level flow at 30-50 kts at times. Combined with a very unstable atmosphere could yield some good supercells/MCS. Maybe not a big tornado event, but nice structured storms looks possible.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Well I have been out of town for a week. Did not have a chance to look at the models much earlier this week however today's 12z and 18z GFS looks very promising for the week of th 8th through the 13th. I posted last week regarding signs that I identified as significant in the GFS regarding a pattern shift around the 7th give or take 3 or 4 days. It still looks to me as if that is the case. My advise is to save your money this week as NW flow is still prevailing with limited moisture. Do not believe there will be anything to write home about. Just give mother nature one more week. Spend a little time at the pool and get ready for the week of the 8th if you have that luxury.