Chris Hayes
EF5
Well, as I expected-GFS went back to the sh*tter. Bummer
All I can say is I hope Ed Berry is right...otherwise------->
There was a chase season this year??? LOL!
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
There was a chase season this year??? LOL!
Anthony Silver
EF4
Yeah, not so much. Hopefully we can make up for lost time in June, but I won't hold my breath.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
I wouldn't say the GFS went back back to the ****ter. It has now consistently shown southwest flow for next week with lots of moisture and instability across good chase terrain - Kansas, Nebraska, maybe into the Texas panhandle at some point. It's still wishy washy about fully ejecting the Pacific trough and I'm sure it'll once again show a monster negative tilt out to 384 hours.
But I think the likelihood of decent severe weather is high in the coming weeks. Will it be a tornado fest perfect setup? That remains to be seen, but I'll take a nicely sculpted supercell at this point.
But I think the likelihood of decent severe weather is high in the coming weeks. Will it be a tornado fest perfect setup? That remains to be seen, but I'll take a nicely sculpted supercell at this point.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Looks like an increasing chance of supercells in eastern NM and Western Texas on Monday, and more so on Tuesday. Not sure why SPC is not highlighting this more. I know VORTEX2 is gambling on the northern sectors. Hummmm.
W.
W.
Bart_Comstock
EF5
I have found the real reason why we are having such a poor season.... "CLOUD SHRINKERS!" 
...maybe if enough of us drive to Kansas and chant "ridge disappear" over and over again or supercell form we could start to see some action again, lol.
...maybe if enough of us drive to Kansas and chant "ridge disappear" over and over again or supercell form we could start to see some action again, lol.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
If that short wave verifies over the eastern TX panhandle, and western OK, Tue. could be a killer sleeper day. Dryline/front triple point with nice compact upper support might lead to a big isolated supercell. The GFS precip map goes from nothing to a bullseye from 00z to 03z.
Ken Johnson
EF1
12z GFS looks worse than the 00 OR 06Z RUNS. It builds that ridge across more of the southern and central U.S. pushing the best flow across the northern U.S. 
Andrew Stoller
EF5
North Korea needs to do a nuclear test off the coast of Baja California so the force of the blast will move that high pressure out of here!
Rob Wadsworth
EF5
What is beginning to concern me -as a farmer- is that there doesn't appear to be enough rain on a regular basis to sustain the crops. At this rate anyway. I'd hate to see the price of corn/soybeans go thru the roof because of a lack of rain to sustain what has been planted this year. This Canadian jet may have a palpable effect on the economy as well if it doesn't change soon...As a side note...
Back in sunny and mostly too dry California. Got home last night after driving ~1200 miles from Laramie WY to San Jose CA. Water rationing may well become stricter than it is here in CA. A dry year -overall- for 2009? Certainly, moisture problems aren't limited to chasing - and I'm hoping this isn't going to be the trend. Some areas still are under flood watch; but with Summer around corner - it may become too dry very quickly.
Glad to see that from the Omaha area to southern MN is still being forecast by the SPC as chase able. I'll be watching it on GR3 very closely
Just some observations...
Back in sunny and mostly too dry California. Got home last night after driving ~1200 miles from Laramie WY to San Jose CA. Water rationing may well become stricter than it is here in CA. A dry year -overall- for 2009? Certainly, moisture problems aren't limited to chasing - and I'm hoping this isn't going to be the trend. Some areas still are under flood watch; but with Summer around corner - it may become too dry very quickly.
Glad to see that from the Omaha area to southern MN is still being forecast by the SPC as chase able. I'll be watching it on GR3 very closely
Just some observations...
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Michael O'Keeffe
I don't think that will be a problem because it has been incredibly wet the past few months, our grass has been growing out of control from all of the rain however we haven't seen a good rain in about 2 weeks but at least here in E KS we have seen WELL above average rainfall. However I think Iowa will see their share here in the next few days as a few MCSs are likely during the overnight Sun and Mon maybe even Tues.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
This is probably worthy of a separate thread, but I'll add my two cents from this side of the Miss. River. We have actually had too MUCH rain over here for farmer's... many of which are still just now getting to planting as their fields have been covered in standing water for months now. Much of Illinois and surrounding areas have very saturated fields with many water covered areas.
Mikey Gribble
EF5
That same little baby shortwave over Oklahoma on Tuesday had a twin brother on the the GFS last week that magically disappeared as we got closer to go time. I would love a weak little disturbance to deepen a surface low and a couple storms, but there were a few problems with this same scenario the other week (assuming it even verified) and there would be some with this one too.
I'm just dying here. WTF is the problem. I'm trying to put a number to how bad this season is. 2006 was armagedon compared to this so don't bring that up. How far back to you have to go to really hit a god awful season? I looked at the tornado count records, but those are BS. That weak little storm by Ark City that produced dust whirls got credit for four tornadoes. I want to know from a chaser's perspective (not tornado #'s which don't translate well into what we are looking for) how long has it beeen since there was a season worse than this one. I haven't been chasing long enough. I can pretty much cover the past decade, but the older guys are going to have to answer the question because IMO there hasn't been anything worse in the last 10 years. Any answers?
I'm just dying here. WTF is the problem. I'm trying to put a number to how bad this season is. 2006 was armagedon compared to this so don't bring that up. How far back to you have to go to really hit a god awful season? I looked at the tornado count records, but those are BS. That weak little storm by Ark City that produced dust whirls got credit for four tornadoes. I want to know from a chaser's perspective (not tornado #'s which don't translate well into what we are looking for) how long has it beeen since there was a season worse than this one. I haven't been chasing long enough. I can pretty much cover the past decade, but the older guys are going to have to answer the question because IMO there hasn't been anything worse in the last 10 years. Any answers?
David Drummond
Member
1988 enough said. Even that year had a few events.
Ken Johnson
EF1
Next weekend doesn't look that bad..Decent flow at 500mb and above with a front across northern OK and souther Kansas. If this scenario plays out then there would be some chase chances here...
Down the road, the 12z operational run look awful...However, some of the ensembles are a little more optimistic with more southwest flow aloft. But most do indicate a strong ridge too...
Down the road, the 12z operational run look awful...However, some of the ensembles are a little more optimistic with more southwest flow aloft. But most do indicate a strong ridge too...
Kevin Walters
EF2
Early May had at least one big event, then it went down hill. By June temps were well into the 90's and it didn't rain here basically until September. Temps from mid June through August were in the upper 90's to low 100's almost everyday.
