Future of the season part deux

It's finally looking like this weekend is going to hold some true potential for severe weather, and not one of those marginal setups where one if not two main ingredients are missing from the setup. We just finished a chasecation that lasted from May 20th until today (we're driving home as I'm typing) and it was frustrating to say the least. It's really hard to keep grinding and looking for the needle in the haystack when the weather isn't cooperating, so in a way I'm glad that it's over. I am so looking forward to this weekend in hopes that we'll see something major and can erase the memories of the last few days. I think the models are looking really good from an ingredients based forecasting approach and hope that it pans out for all who plan to be out on the plains this coming weekend.
 
Yeah the ECMWF brings a sprawling arctic high from Canada down into the Northern Plains. That would be just like this season to have an arctic high squash things in early June. The GFS shows a similar high but keeps it to the North. The differences between the 2 camps wrt to the northern stream are significant. The ECMWF solution places strongly confluent mid-level flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest which allows the high to build south while GFS flow in the Northern stream is less progressive. The GFS ensembles have a fair amount of spread in this region and I am not sure if the deterministic model has much support from the ensembles. Too bad we do not have access to EC ensembles.

There is support from the GEM and the UKMet that the trough will indeed eject out finally so at least we have the mid level flow. Its hard to believe looking at the forecasts that we will not get at least one classic setup out of this pattern shift over the next 10 days.
 
GFS has gone back and forth with this one... showing a potential big outbreak (not necessarily tornadoes) day in the upper Mississippi river valley corridor. Lately, though, has been trending for a more southern solution where the lower Miss River Valley area gets it.

Yeah, the 12Z GFS has painted a totally different picture for Monday, and after looking at earlier runs, I see that I jumped the gun on this one pretty badly. Well, I'll keep an eye on it anyway. I'm out of the play for Saturday, so what follows from Sunday on is all I've got to work with.
 
12z ECMWF looks much better than last night's 00z, and - surprise, surprise - is remarkably consistent with the GFS as far out as Monday (144 hr). In fact, it keeps zonal-to-SW flow over the Plains through next week (the 00z run had mostly NW flow). Again, more like the GFS.

Probably not worth mentioning, but at 240 hr (valid June 12), the 12z ECMWF also has a 500 mb low over NM/AZ, where the 00z run had predicted a ridge. "Butterfly Effect"? Maybe. But the CPC is considering the possibility of this new western trough developing ~10 days from now in today's blended forecast. Comparing their 8-14 day forecast period with the 6-10 day period, they say

DUE TO THE SIMILARITY IN THE FORECAST WEEK TWO 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN WITH THE 6 TO 10 DAY OFFICIAL BLEND, LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHERE A STRONG TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD... LEADING TO FORECAST ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
 
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SEASON ON!

I guess we'll get to see if the LEOs around Quinter, KS still hate us Friday. For Saturday, say goodbye to Omaha. At least the season is making a come back and has the courtesy to use the interstate system.
 
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GFS BUFKIT sounding/hodo looks amazing for southeast/eastern NE on Saturday. Even better, the west coast trough seems to become a quasi-perminant feature throughout June. Actually, I just wanted be the 500th reply to this thread. Yeah!

Sean
 
I can't let this thread die now. With 500 posts this has to be one of the longest threads on ST.

Anyway, the GFS has been very consistent with the trough this weekend, possibly giving us the first real setup in quite some time. As we go into next week the GFS continues an active southern branch jet over the Plains with several impulses from day to day. Its impossible to look at any day in detail this far out, but it appears like we could have an active string of chase events from the Plains to the upper midwest.

As we head into the weekend of June 13-14 and the following week the GFS caps off this active pattern with an "armageddon" type negative tilt longwave trough with a large wamr sector. Here's to wishful thinking and hoping to an explosive end to an otherwise dismal tornado season.
 
Don't look now but the long term GFS is showing an absolutely gorgeous pattern starting late next week and continuing out as long as the model projects.
 
Overall I like the potential of next weekend and beyond. Just glad to have the death ridge out of the picture. I also like the potential of this Sunday (the 7th). Seems as if everyone is sleeping on it because of Friday and Saturday's potential. Clearly I jumped the gun on Friday as it doesn't look near as appetizing as it did a week ago. Saturday has also starting looking worse. But Sunday... Looking good (to me) around the TP near Omaha. Better moisture than Friday, strong LLJ than Saturday, and hey, we could be looking at a better-than-slight-risk setup.
 
The low over Alabama is pretty much cutting off the Gulf for the near future. Looks like another bust week with great shear unless something dramatically changes. Might have another shot around June 10.

W.
 
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Danit!

By Tuesday models have agrement of another Tropical system forming in the Deep South Caribbean Sea tracking North West Thursday GFS has this as a 995mb Depresion / Tropical Storm East of Miami Florida after crossing cuba.

If this comes to pass then it goes with out saying this depression will again toast the Gulf mositure flow toward mid - late next week.
 
Stuart Robinson wrote:
By Tuesday models have agrement of another Tropical system forming in the Deep South Caribbean Sea tracking North West Thursday GFS has this as a 995mb Depresion / Tropical Storm East of Miami Florida after crossing cuba.

Looks like we could have problems with moisture on and off during the next week, but a few good days are still possible (as Warren mentioned, June 10 - and maybe 11 - look interesting on the latest GFS, with nice dewpoints in KS/OK). At least the track of the tropical low seems to be towards the Atlantic - not deep into the GOM.

For those who can still chase this late in the season, some encouragement (yeah, yeah, we've heard this before!) starting next weekend and beyond. The GEFS ensembles, operational GFS and ECMWF have been repeatedly suggesting the last few runs that a trough will dig into the SW US towards the end of the second week of June. The negative H5 height anomalies that were off the coast of CA and over the GOM are expected to progress eastward, which should help open the Gulf and improve the flow over the Plains. And overall, heights for most of the US look to be below normal for early to mid June - summer is definitely not here yet!

All this has been reflected in the Climate Predition Center's recent forecasts, which show pretty much what you'd want to see in terms of temperature and precip anomalies across the US. Of course capping is always an issue this time of year, but I'm hoping we'll get a few good storms out of the upcoming pattern.
 
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It looks like the dryline might possibly back into the high plains a few times in the coming weeks. With upslope flow over favored orographic terrain, that might mitigate caping concerns somewhat.
 
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