Jim Bishop
EF4
That can't be a good sign for the "Future of the Season"
It's also not a good sign when the summer death ridge starts developing in early May. In seasons like this you just have to chase every setup and hope for the best.
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
It's also not a good sign when the summer death ridge starts developing in early May. In seasons like this you just have to chase every setup and hope for the best.
Jason McKittrick
EF3
The Vortex 2 curse
Well two consecutive runs with an Omega High over the western half of th US for mid-late May. It's been a few seasons since this has happened just as things are supposed to be ramping up. Anyone planning chase cations for mid and late May, I suggest packing the sunscreen and swim trunks.
Well two consecutive runs with an Omega High over the western half of th US for mid-late May. It's been a few seasons since this has happened just as things are supposed to be ramping up. Anyone planning chase cations for mid and late May, I suggest packing the sunscreen and swim trunks.
Adam Penney
EF1
Perhaps Warren was making a joke.
https://secure.nssl.noaa.gov/v2talk/2009/05/5909-susan-cobb/
VORTEX2 Talk
5.9.09 - Susan Cobb
Posted May 10th, 2009 by Susan Cobb. permalink
The V2 All Hands meeting was tonight. There were a very large number of students not from OU. Texas Tech, Purdue, University of Michigan seemed to have the biggest crowds. The meeting reminded everyone the goals of the project, then focused on logistics, details and etiquette. There will be a weather briefing at the NWC tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. and the target will be announced.
That doesn't sound like a team ready to cancel does it?
https://secure.nssl.noaa.gov/v2talk/2009/05/5909-susan-cobb/
VORTEX2 Talk
5.9.09 - Susan Cobb
Posted May 10th, 2009 by Susan Cobb. permalink
The V2 All Hands meeting was tonight. There were a very large number of students not from OU. Texas Tech, Purdue, University of Michigan seemed to have the biggest crowds. The meeting reminded everyone the goals of the project, then focused on logistics, details and etiquette. There will be a weather briefing at the NWC tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. and the target will be announced.
That doesn't sound like a team ready to cancel does it?
Jeff Snyder
EF5
VORTEX2 targets, status, etc., are made on a day-to-day basis. It's just such that today looks pretty bad for any supercell activity within the V2 domain, so we're off to a very anti-climactic start to the project period. Barring a repeat of 2006, which was horrendous in terms of May and June chase activity in the Plains, it's a good bet that there will be storms to be had for those who are out (and there are always "surprise" events or events that vastly surprise any expectations). Seeing all V2 participants at last night's meeting surely brought home the point of how huge this project is, however!
Warren Faidley
Supporter
VORTEX2 canceled for today only. They have a meeting every morning to discuss the target. I am **guessing** they will bite on Tuesday's slight risk, then it's back to the ever popular zonal flow.
W.
W.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Re: Death ridge... I don't think we currently have what I consider to be a **true** death ridge: High pressure strength of at least 594dkm centered smack dab over a specific region, 700 mb temps of at least 14C, and 500 mb temps of warmer than -5C. That is a true death ridge which kills anything. The brainiacs can correct me if that does not sound right. You have to be really careful this time of year, or expecially towards the end of the month, as sneak attacks can and occassionaly do occur -- especially in western Texas, eastern NM and eastern Colorado.
W.
W.
Jim Tang
EF3
Agree that this is not a death ridge. Go to 500mb charts in May 1987... THAT was a death ridge.
Now granted, we don't have the most favorable pattern, but it is not too terrible, and it is changeable (for better or for worse). Death ridge's don't come and go; one they become entrenched it's hard to get rid of them.
Now granted, we don't have the most favorable pattern, but it is not too terrible, and it is changeable (for better or for worse). Death ridge's don't come and go; one they become entrenched it's hard to get rid of them.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Happy Mothers Day!........ you never know!
Andrew Stoller
EF5
348 hours? The Earth might not be here out that far on the next GFS run. 
John Hudson
EF4
348 hours? The Earth might not be here out that far on the next GFS run.
Or, that trough might not be there, either. Check out the 18Z run.
We'd better change the thread name to "Season Without a Future" part one.
Can you say "presto change-o?"
John
VE4 JTH
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Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'm just waiting for the first..... "The fall pattern is not looking all that bad"......lol
W.
First year I've been able to watch Darlington and the Indy qualifying in a long time. (Go Danika). Who knows, maybe I'll also get to watch the Indy 500 and Coco Cola 600!
W.
First year I've been able to watch Darlington and the Indy qualifying in a long time. (Go Danika). Who knows, maybe I'll also get to watch the Indy 500 and Coco Cola 600!
Paul Knightley
EF5
We head stateside from the UK a week today - at this stage I'm not too concerned about the charts - ensembles still paint a fair chance of a western trough developing later on next week and into the weekend. IIRC this time last year the GFS starting showing a big ridge, but the ECMWF ensembles were correct in their depiction of a trough, so I'll be keeping an eye on those! Also, looking at Ed Berry's blog, he thinks there's a chance of moving into octant 2 of the GWO, hinting at the chance of western/central troughs. There's still plenty to play for so don't write it off yet!
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
If this verifies ... It's not that bad for me as I just DON'T GO ;-(
Last year, the GFS also showed a ridge all the way until the END of May 2008 ... But that did NOT verify, obviously.
I have my vacation set for May 21 to June 1, but I can cancel it if necessary (just eat the airline fees).
I am out there to CHASE ... Not go to Dayton Hamfest, NOT to look at rocks, NOT to swim, and not to SIT on my --- and cry.
Florida has been dry as a bone, normally I already see some spring severe storms, but this year - nothing ... So I'll chase ONE LP if I can.
I stuck it out in May 2006 with a ridge - Never again.
Anyone planning chase cations for mid and late May, I suggest packing the sunscreen and swim trunks.
If this verifies ... It's not that bad for me as I just DON'T GO ;-(
Last year, the GFS also showed a ridge all the way until the END of May 2008 ... But that did NOT verify, obviously.
I have my vacation set for May 21 to June 1, but I can cancel it if necessary (just eat the airline fees).
I am out there to CHASE ... Not go to Dayton Hamfest, NOT to look at rocks, NOT to swim, and not to SIT on my --- and cry.
Florida has been dry as a bone, normally I already see some spring severe storms, but this year - nothing ... So I'll chase ONE LP if I can.
I stuck it out in May 2006 with a ridge - Never again.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Man oh man this is looking ugly. There remains some hope in some of the ensemble members, but there appears to be some consensus that the pattern next week, and perhaps a bit beyond, is going to be brutal. The GFS and ECMWF agree on a deep upper-level trough digging through the southeastern U.S. starting this weekend and into next week. On the upstream (i.e. west) side of this trough, a high pressure system at the surface will invade the Plains as a cold front pushes into (and beyond) the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the upcoming weekend. The GFS is indicating some hope for a mid-week chase, but it looks like we'll be dealing with marginal Tds associated with only modified cP air. Another cold front then looks to push down through the Plains and reach the GoM by the end of next week. Even if that doesn't happen, it looks like we'll see at least several days of northerly or northeasterly flow (sometimes 15-20 kt sustained) across the central and eastern GoM W and S of a surface high near or just off the SE US coast. The last GFS I examined (00z) remains persistent in putting a cut-off upper-level low somewhere around FL or the eastern GoM, which likely will punish low-level moisture across the GoM; the ECMWF gives me a bit more hope by cutting off the upper-level flow off the SE US coast, which may be east enough to avoid negatively influencing moisture across the GoM.
At any rate, this is reminding me a bit of 2006... The best flow aloft will remain locked up in the central and northern Plains through the next 7-10 days, while sfc cold frontal passages will ensure that any real juice likely will remains locked up in the deep southern Plains (if not completely out of the Plains, or out of the GoM).
This isn't to say that there won't a couple of chase opps through next week -- there may be some chances for supercell intercepts if the recirculating cP air can modify enough through its trek across the GoM to give us deep low-60 F Tds. Evapotranspiration will help at the immediate sfc, but I question the depth of that source of moisture. In addition, there may be some hope mid-late next week as strong lee troughing helps create favorable low-level shear profiles, but flow aloft and low-level moisture may be a bit marginal (<60 F Tds). Upper-air forecasts indicate a high-over-low block along or off the western U.S. coast by late week into the weekend, which eventually breaks down into a sort of omega block pattern (w/ potential for cut-off lows near or off the SW US coast and SE US coast) in the subtropical jet. Otherwise, the polar jet looks to remain rather far north for the time of year.
Again, I'm sure there will be chase opps beyond today through the next 10 days (incl this Fri), but they look to be few, far between, and marginal (at least in terms of tornadic supercell potential... could be some decent nontornadic sups).
Hopefully this will be more like 2005, which came back to life in early June, than 2006, which never came back to life. Well, at least for much of the S and C Plains. I'm geographically biased in this post to the C and S Plains.
Oh yeah, we're also talking about 7-10 day forecasts, which tend to be rather sketchy. However, I have more confidence in the upper-air flow pattern when there's reasonable agreement (however that's defined, LOL) between models. In addition, I'm ONLY talking about the next ~10 days. Beyond that, for all I know, we'll see a persistent western US trough that'll give us many days of classic dryline severe weather days. Well, I hope, at least! So, this is all to say that I'm not thinking the season is "doomed" by any stretch, though we do know that we can stay in such a terrible pattern through May-June (see 2006).
At any rate, this is reminding me a bit of 2006... The best flow aloft will remain locked up in the central and northern Plains through the next 7-10 days, while sfc cold frontal passages will ensure that any real juice likely will remains locked up in the deep southern Plains (if not completely out of the Plains, or out of the GoM).
This isn't to say that there won't a couple of chase opps through next week -- there may be some chances for supercell intercepts if the recirculating cP air can modify enough through its trek across the GoM to give us deep low-60 F Tds. Evapotranspiration will help at the immediate sfc, but I question the depth of that source of moisture. In addition, there may be some hope mid-late next week as strong lee troughing helps create favorable low-level shear profiles, but flow aloft and low-level moisture may be a bit marginal (<60 F Tds). Upper-air forecasts indicate a high-over-low block along or off the western U.S. coast by late week into the weekend, which eventually breaks down into a sort of omega block pattern (w/ potential for cut-off lows near or off the SW US coast and SE US coast) in the subtropical jet. Otherwise, the polar jet looks to remain rather far north for the time of year.
Again, I'm sure there will be chase opps beyond today through the next 10 days (incl this Fri), but they look to be few, far between, and marginal (at least in terms of tornadic supercell potential... could be some decent nontornadic sups).
Hopefully this will be more like 2005, which came back to life in early June, than 2006, which never came back to life. Well, at least for much of the S and C Plains. I'm geographically biased in this post to the C and S Plains.
Oh yeah, we're also talking about 7-10 day forecasts, which tend to be rather sketchy. However, I have more confidence in the upper-air flow pattern when there's reasonable agreement (however that's defined, LOL) between models. In addition, I'm ONLY talking about the next ~10 days. Beyond that, for all I know, we'll see a persistent western US trough that'll give us many days of classic dryline severe weather days. Well, I hope, at least! So, this is all to say that I'm not thinking the season is "doomed" by any stretch, though we do know that we can stay in such a terrible pattern through May-June (see 2006).
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Eric Bucsela
EF2
I hear you, Jeff (nice analysis, BTW). Models have looked this way for the past week or so. Here in early May, it's not the western ridge - eastern trough that bothers me so much as the fact that the forecast postition of the mean jet seems to have gone prematurely north (if I'm reading it correctly). Makes me worry about an early end to the season.
....However...FWIW, the May 13 00z ECMWF is actually predicting a western trough about 10 days from now. This is the first I've seen it do that in over a week. And the 06z GFS is also showing troughing in the last week of May. We've seen this before, and the troughs have evaporated in later runs. But at least it's a sign of life in the models - and hopefully in the actual pattern.
