Future of the season part deux

[Kem Poyner]

hopefull

If moisture is going to be a factor the last week of May, but we can squeeze out a couple supercells, I would be satisfied. An LP cell with visible structure would be a nice change from last years rain wrapped LP monsters. My hair if finally growing back from where I yanked it out last year. A nice photographic supercell, even without a tornado would make my chase vacation worth it.

 

[Derek Weston]

With the long range model runs... I've decided... specifics aren't significant... trends over time are a little more telling, though. When run after run you get the same general picture... I don't think it's unrealistic to be having a few worries.

GFS has been spitting out crap for a while now.

I'll take an active June up in Neb/SD/MN/IA, though... at least give me that here.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

If the long range GFS (think 300+ hrs) miraculously verifies, I will cry tears of joy.

 

[Stan Rose]

Yeah, that 372 hour prog looks sweeeet, and coincides perfectly with the start of my vacation!
Seriously, one positive thing about this fantasy solution is that its a persistent trough over the west US, not just some transitory wave, so who knows, maybe the gfs is on to somethin

 

[cdcollura]

I am locked into May 21 to June 1 ... So I guess I'm screwed.

All this after seeing May 13 in MO / IL ... I'll never work a full-time job again.

2006 will not repeat for me ... I'll just cancel my vacation, eat the fees, and "spot-chase" in June.

Also, why are all the big events happening on Wednesdays???

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Right now I'll be content with a string of 70 degree days before I start thinking about local chasing. There have been very few days with above average temperatures in eastern ND since December. Monthly negative temp anomalies have been in the four to five degree range. Today a balmy 32 degree morning outside with clouds. A paltry 35 degrees at 11am. Low 30s are not rare here this time of year but near to sub freezing nights are usually exclusive to radiation nights. This crap advected in... again. Locals are starting to wonder if a repeat of 2004, a year without a summer, is in store. No global warming here. I feel for the southern chasers right now in the storm department but at least you guys have some warm air around. Looks like real spring *might* show up locally next week. The GFS even has a good trof swinging through, sans moisture and inherent instability however. No shortage of water to evaporate around here but transpiration is lacking and the peak will probably be three weeks late. Most farmers have yet to get the crop in. There are a couple larger swaths of land in the valley that may get planted very late or not at all. They only very recently drained from flooding. It will be interesting to watch these areas when *knock on wood* chase season arrives. These significantly sized areas of black dirt could end up being favored storm initiation points. I will certainly target them if a chase-worthy boundary swings through. May has always been hit or miss in ND, mostly miss. June is when things really get going climatologically but I will not be surprised if reliable chase weather doesn't arrive until late in the month. The last time I saw anything resmbling chaser convergence in ND was in June 2005. A couple of the tour operators and university chase teams were here since nothing was going on down south. Perhaps a repeat is in store. I find mild chaser convergence kind of fun and if it is here that means the storms are probably here too. If you come to ND bring ample supply of DEET and windshield washer fluid as the mosquito population could be rediculous this year. West Nile becomes a real threat in the latter half of summer. Putting it in perspective, the air force was performing low altitude mosquito "bombing" raids over town using a C130 the last time the bugs were bad.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Yeah, that 372 hour prog looks sweeeet, and coincides perfectly with the start of my vacation!
Seriously, one positive thing about this fantasy solution is that its a persistent trough over the west US, not just some transitory wave, so who knows, maybe the gfs is on to somethin

While I think the GFS could be onto something...I'm looking more towards the fall....

(Just for you Warren)


In reality...it's the middle of May, I'd suspect we'll have at least one more trough come through the plains this spring...so I'm not too worried. It would certainly be nice to have the whole month of May active for the guys who travel in and have set schedules, but sometimes that just doesn't happen

 

[Robert S. Thompson]

How about we just blame Vortex 2, then reschedule our chasecations for June 14? That's when we'll see outbreaks that will make 2008 seem tame! (No offense meant to the Vortex 2 folks...talk about bad luck.)

 

[Jason Foster]

How about we just blame Vortex 2, then reschedule our chasecations for June 14? That's when we'll see outbreaks that will make 2008 seem tame! (No offense meant to the Vortex 2 folks...talk about bad luck.)

Are we already talking about a VORTEX curse....

Also, why are all the big events happening on Wednesdays???

Because that is hump day...

Chris...I'm with you...no chasing in May...already pulled the plug. I don't have the funds to play guessing games. Frankly I didn't have a ton since I required the purchase of a new chase vehicle anyway. June may be possible, although that is always a busy month for me after the 10th of June.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Groan,
The closer that we now get, the more it seems that the second half of May is going to be a let down.

For the next 2 weeks there is no upper air support, save way up north.

Sat 16th Cold front seems to scrape all the moisture down to the Gulf and under the North west flow aloft - and never seems to recover. This is not helped ether by a cut off low over the Eastern GOM which puts north Easterly flow over much of the gulf.Again stopping any real moisture return.

I think that May will now be closed down from this weekend.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Worst. Season. Evar.

See you guys in late June

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like we might be in for a hell of monsoon and hurricane season with little or no western flow to push things east.

W.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I hear you Warren - roll on the Hurricane season because May 2009 is now toast from this weekend forward.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Yea, Im just happy I snagged my piece of the pie this past Wednesday, or else this death ridge would have me ready to jump off a cliff.

Weather always seems to balance itself out so while the rest of May looks like a crapshoot, there is still hope for June.

Looking on the positive side, should the season go down the crapper It will give me a large stockpile of time off which I can then use for other vacations or [thinking way ahead] a very active 2010

I do feel bad for those who have to plan their chase commitments far in advance....all theyre doing is gambling on statistics. That is why I will never put myself in that position where my whole year is based on the statistical peak, and that is also why I jump on early season setups and I hate when people try and convince me to "wait till May"

May is as futile as any other month....and I bank on nothing when it comes to the weather. I always tell people "I dont decide when I chase, the weather does."

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Weather always seems to balance itself out so while the rest of May looks like a crapshoot, there is still hope for June.

One little problem ... I can't chase in June very much this year (work stuff).

I am locked into May 21 to June 1 ... Maybe some of these "ridge" models won't verify?