Warren Faidley
Supporter
There is always hope....
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
It appears the "death ridge" has indeed formed and should remain in place for the next 5-10 days.
The "hope" and encouragement is showing after that time frame on some models, with a potent negative-tilt trough coming into the W US after that, a couple of days after Memorial Day and after ... Ofcourse IF it verfifies this far out.
The chase trip from May 21 to June 1 will need to be "bumped" a week forward or "spot chased" since my time if flexible (I can take a day here and there instead of a whole week wasted) - Thank God.
It appears the "death ridge" has indeed formed and should remain in place for the next 5-10 days.
The "hope" and encouragement is showing after that time frame on some models, with a potent negative-tilt trough coming into the W US after that, a couple of days after Memorial Day and after ... Ofcourse IF it verfifies this far out.
The chase trip from May 21 to June 1 will need to be "bumped" a week forward or "spot chased" since my time if flexible (I can take a day here and there instead of a whole week wasted) - Thank God.
Jim Tang
EF3
Yup, now that^^ is a death ridge. I'm pretty sure we can kiss major events goodbye until June, at the earliest.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I still find it interesting that the CPC is forecasting normal, to above normal precipitation for portions of the southern plains from May 23 through the end of the month. It was also interesting to read DDC's afternoon discussion (May 17) about the prospects of a stormy period after this ridge breaks down.
W.
W.
Jim Saueressig
EF5
I just want it over till I get back on the first or second of June. Any chance of that? I don't wanna miss something. 
That was interesting reading the Area Forecast Discussions from the DDC office. Thanks for finding and sharing that Warren. I think we're just going to have to tough out the ridge and wait until it breaks down. I can deal with some sporadic chances for chasing starting mid through late week, because that's when our chasecation starts. The one upside to the sub-tropical low is it will help alleviate the extreme drought that Florida is in. I'll give up a week or so of active weather here to help our neighbors in Florida out. Sometimes a guy just has to go with the flow. I noticed the SPC and other resources are talking about upslope flow and/or lee cyclogenesis late this week, which is fine by me as it involves much less driving to chase Colorado and Wyoming than somewhere further away like BF Egypt. If the trough that is looking negatively tilted on the GFS arrives a day or two after Memorial Day all will be well in my world.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
I like CPC too because they blend several models, including ensemble and operational runs, and give a confidence index in their discussion (on weekdays).
The latest does show excess precip in the Southern Plains. But the temperature progs are mostly above normal in the NW and below normal in the SE - consistent with western ridging / eastern troughing. Maybe they expect some energy will sneak under the western ridge and bring rain to TX.
Stan Rose
EF5
Ok, any optimisim i had a few days back has disolved. May is the new August. Maybe ill get lucky and see some pea sized hail. 
Chris Allington
EF4
Long range GFS is still trying to bring us several days starting around the May 30th timeframe (front range) and continuing into the first few days of June (central plains). Obviously still a long ways away, but it has atleast been consistently showing up for a few days now. June has always really been my favorite month, so I'm hoping it verifies.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'm curious about this split flow pattern... I don't recall many good past May's when the polar jet is so far north (essentially along the Canada - U.S. border) and the subtropical jet so far south (essentially along the U.S. - Mexico border). Did 2006 look like this? I know we had severe moisture problems in 2006, some of it the result of severe drought in parts of the Plains, but I don't remember what the upper-air pattern looked like very well. I do recall that we had nearly persistent eastern U.S. troughing, which help to drag down cold fronts across the central U.S. and into the GoM on a regular interval. Up until last week, moisture hadn't been a huge factor in missed events across the Plains (well, it was a limiting factor in many early-season chases, but it's almost always the limiting factor that early), but now moisture IS a problem. And, it will continue to be the likely limiting factor for organized tornadic supercell events through the foreseeable future as long as the pesky mid-level troughing in the subtropical jet remains over or near Florida (and the sfc low remains near or W of FL). Of course, we can have 'surprise' supercells that exceed expectations (e.g. the Pampa supercell from a couple of days ago), but you tend to lose those events much more often than you win those ones.
I just don't know what to think as long as (a) that trough in the subtropic jet remains near Florida, and (b) the flow remains as split as it is right now. Hopefully we can get SOME phasing between the ST and polar jets out west sometime soon, but I'm not too confident. Until then, it looks like we'll have over a week of northerly sfc flow in the central GoM, helping to ensure that we won't see the real, high-quality, high-depth moisture anytime soon. I'm noticing that 500 mb temps are starting to tick up slowly but surely now too under this ridge.
I too am glad that I chase as much as possible early in the season. I remember hearing the "don't get too antsy early, since there's always May" line before too. Then came 2006, when May came and went, as did June. I remain hopeful that 2009 will play out more like 2005, though, when June came in like a lion by providing several high-quality chases (most of which I missed, but at least they were there for the taking!). As it is now, the upper-air pattern looks like late June or July (in terms of the polar jet being so far north), but the surface moisture forecasts look like March or early April. That's the worst of both worlds for chasers south of I80, IMO -- not enough moisture to get the theta-e high enough or LCLs low enough given the warming mid-level temps, and not enough flow aloft to help avoid mixed-mode convection.
If nothing else, it's sure a missed op to have as large of a field project as there has ever been to study tornado and supercell (that would be VORTEX2) collecting little in the way of supercell and/or tornado data. I think that Mother Nature doesn't want her secrets to tornadogenesis to be revealed... Fortunately, we go 2 weeks into June; otherwise, there's still next year!
I just don't know what to think as long as (a) that trough in the subtropic jet remains near Florida, and (b) the flow remains as split as it is right now. Hopefully we can get SOME phasing between the ST and polar jets out west sometime soon, but I'm not too confident. Until then, it looks like we'll have over a week of northerly sfc flow in the central GoM, helping to ensure that we won't see the real, high-quality, high-depth moisture anytime soon. I'm noticing that 500 mb temps are starting to tick up slowly but surely now too under this ridge.
I too am glad that I chase as much as possible early in the season. I remember hearing the "don't get too antsy early, since there's always May" line before too. Then came 2006, when May came and went, as did June. I remain hopeful that 2009 will play out more like 2005, though, when June came in like a lion by providing several high-quality chases (most of which I missed, but at least they were there for the taking!). As it is now, the upper-air pattern looks like late June or July (in terms of the polar jet being so far north), but the surface moisture forecasts look like March or early April. That's the worst of both worlds for chasers south of I80, IMO -- not enough moisture to get the theta-e high enough or LCLs low enough given the warming mid-level temps, and not enough flow aloft to help avoid mixed-mode convection.
If nothing else, it's sure a missed op to have as large of a field project as there has ever been to study tornado and supercell (that would be VORTEX2) collecting little in the way of supercell and/or tornado data. I think that Mother Nature doesn't want her secrets to tornadogenesis to be revealed... Fortunately, we go 2 weeks into June; otherwise, there's still next year!
Last edited by a moderator:
Chris Hayes
EF5
Perhaps this is 1994 for Vortex 2, and next year will be 1995. I've certainly picked a good year to not be able to chase. So, hopefully next year will be 1995. It's amazing how we can go from such a stellar year (last year) to another 2002 or 2006, well at least for now. Deffinately time for things to change. Hell, maybe things will go crazy in June. Although, thats deffinately climatolically unlikely.
Dave Lewison
EF1
Well, not sure why June would be "climatologically unlikely", as there have been many instances where the first couple weeks of June have been more active than any of the preceding May. Nature doesn't recognize our calendar, and there is little difference between the 1st week in June and the last week in May...
SPC has some nice automatic charts that are great to compare years (but I think it only goes back to 2000):
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2005_annual_summary.html
Check out 2005. A rather ho-hum May, and then early June had several major events. 2004 was similar, with a few late-May outbreaks.
The ensemble GEFS consensus has persistently been dangling a western trough out there around mid next week. I am hoping that this pesky Gulf Low will have dissipated by then, allowing more traditional moisture return across the plains. I gotta keep telling myself, THERE IS STILL TIME!!
I'm thankful that we drive out to the Plains every year from NY, instead of being tied to an airline schedule... I can imagine the stress of those folks who have to fly out and keep postponing due to the non-severe pattern we're in!
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
This is from the national weather service in Tulsa. I am starting to believe that this year is pretty much finished and we will have to wait until next year for our next real chasing opportunities again.
CURRENT PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY UPPER HIGH OVER NV/UT. HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E WITH CENTER OVER OK BY TUE... BY
WHICH TIME A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OR NEAR FL. DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW AT SUCH LOW LATITUDES NORMALLY WOULD BE ATYPICAL FOR
LATE MAY - BUT NOT THIS YEAR. LOWER MIDLATITUDES ARE STRONGLY
BLOCKED ALL AROUND THE HEMISPHERE WITH CLOSED/CUTOFF LOWS NEAR OR
S OF 30N CURRENTLY N OF HAWAII... OVER E PACIFIC... CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... AND OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN. OTHERS ARE FORECAST TO
FORM NEAR THE DATELINE AND OVER SE ASIA... WHICH ALONG WITH THE
ONE DESTINED TO SET UP OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF WILL BRING THE
COUNT TO 7 BY MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM RECENT
DOUBLE-VORTEX BLOCK NEAR THE W COAST TO AN OMEGA BLOCK ANCHORED
BY THE HIGH OVER THE S PLAINS... AND THEN TO ANOTHER DOUBLE VORTEX
BLOCK BY WED-THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES E TO THE OH VALLEY ATOP THE
CLOSED LOW OVER FL. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER OK/TX AREA IN ONE
FORM OR ANOTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE NONEXISTANT - HELD IN CHECK BY THE SFC RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX... AND LATER IN THE
WEEK BY FLOW AROUND THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW DRIFTING W/NW INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF. ALL THIS TRANSLATES INTO SEASONABLY WARM DAYS... COMFORATBLY COOL NIGHTS... FEW CLOUDS... AND RAIN/T-STORM
CHANCES REMAINING VERY SLIM TO NONE ALL WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...
WONDERFUL LATE-SPRING WEATHER FOR MOST PEOPLE IN THE S PLAINS WHO ARE NOT STORM CHASERS OR RESEARCHERS.
CURRENT PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY UPPER HIGH OVER NV/UT. HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E WITH CENTER OVER OK BY TUE... BY
WHICH TIME A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OR NEAR FL. DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW AT SUCH LOW LATITUDES NORMALLY WOULD BE ATYPICAL FOR
LATE MAY - BUT NOT THIS YEAR. LOWER MIDLATITUDES ARE STRONGLY
BLOCKED ALL AROUND THE HEMISPHERE WITH CLOSED/CUTOFF LOWS NEAR OR
S OF 30N CURRENTLY N OF HAWAII... OVER E PACIFIC... CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... AND OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN. OTHERS ARE FORECAST TO
FORM NEAR THE DATELINE AND OVER SE ASIA... WHICH ALONG WITH THE
ONE DESTINED TO SET UP OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF WILL BRING THE
COUNT TO 7 BY MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM RECENT
DOUBLE-VORTEX BLOCK NEAR THE W COAST TO AN OMEGA BLOCK ANCHORED
BY THE HIGH OVER THE S PLAINS... AND THEN TO ANOTHER DOUBLE VORTEX
BLOCK BY WED-THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES E TO THE OH VALLEY ATOP THE
CLOSED LOW OVER FL. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER OK/TX AREA IN ONE
FORM OR ANOTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE NONEXISTANT - HELD IN CHECK BY THE SFC RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX... AND LATER IN THE
WEEK BY FLOW AROUND THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW DRIFTING W/NW INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF. ALL THIS TRANSLATES INTO SEASONABLY WARM DAYS... COMFORATBLY COOL NIGHTS... FEW CLOUDS... AND RAIN/T-STORM
CHANCES REMAINING VERY SLIM TO NONE ALL WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...
WONDERFUL LATE-SPRING WEATHER FOR MOST PEOPLE IN THE S PLAINS WHO ARE NOT STORM CHASERS OR RESEARCHERS.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
The answer is NO ... Mid-late May 2006 was dominated by a massive 500 MB low centered over the Great Lakes that sat there and spin for nearly 15 days with a hige ridge to its west. The upper-level-low was completely cut-off and locked the pattern for 2-3 weeks (Rex block / Omega block to it's west).
The pattern here is JUST a ridge and nothing in the way of blocking low pressure ATM, so this should only delay events for a week or so. IMO, The days after Memorial Day deserve some attention, then into early June.
I officially cancelled my chase trip, as I was supposed to head out there May 21 (too SOON for me now). I used the tickets, after a pretty big fee, to go to California in July (visit buddies of mine). If something happens after memorial day / June ... I'll just "spot chase" it - No more EXPEDITION type trips!
I heard on the "don't get too antsy" concept ... I said "screw that" in 2008 ... And jumped on every setup I could (such as April 9, May 1, etc ... Even the TN stuff on Feb 10)! When my "main May trip came", I only went out when I saw the huge "Pacific trough" - All this worked wonders.
In 2007, with 90% of the activity in Feb-April, May stunk ... And I was really let down. But these other years (outside of 2008) were dictated more by two things (other than myself chasing): The 4-letter "W" word called "Work" and a bossy ex g/f (early 2000's).
Speaking about FL ... Yes, we should be getting rain, but far away from Miami / Ft Lauderdale since sea-breeze boundaries converge on the West coast of FL and not close to here as the winds are easterly (not the trough at the SFC as advertised).
Even here in FL, I normally would have chased about 5-10 severe storms by May or so ... But with the drought, my FL chase log for 2009 still has "No chases yet" in it ;-(
The answer is NO ... Mid-late May 2006 was dominated by a massive 500 MB low centered over the Great Lakes that sat there and spin for nearly 15 days with a hige ridge to its west. The upper-level-low was completely cut-off and locked the pattern for 2-3 weeks (Rex block / Omega block to it's west).
The pattern here is JUST a ridge and nothing in the way of blocking low pressure ATM, so this should only delay events for a week or so. IMO, The days after Memorial Day deserve some attention, then into early June.
I officially cancelled my chase trip, as I was supposed to head out there May 21 (too SOON for me now). I used the tickets, after a pretty big fee, to go to California in July (visit buddies of mine). If something happens after memorial day / June ... I'll just "spot chase" it - No more EXPEDITION type trips!
I heard on the "don't get too antsy" concept ... I said "screw that" in 2008 ... And jumped on every setup I could (such as April 9, May 1, etc ... Even the TN stuff on Feb 10)! When my "main May trip came", I only went out when I saw the huge "Pacific trough" - All this worked wonders.
In 2007, with 90% of the activity in Feb-April, May stunk ... And I was really let down. But these other years (outside of 2008) were dictated more by two things (other than myself chasing): The 4-letter "W" word called "Work" and a bossy ex g/f (early 2000's).
Speaking about FL ... Yes, we should be getting rain, but far away from Miami / Ft Lauderdale since sea-breeze boundaries converge on the West coast of FL and not close to here as the winds are easterly (not the trough at the SFC as advertised).
Even here in FL, I normally would have chased about 5-10 severe storms by May or so ... But with the drought, my FL chase log for 2009 still has "No chases yet" in it ;-(
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I think the moisture will be marginal for eastern so. plains svr. in the near future, **but** if you look at the current surface streamlines, it is quite possible to import moisture from other regions, i.e., Mexico monsoon type flow, or from the east as (if) the low near Florida progresses. All it takes in the western portions of the alley is at least 50-55 dps (at maximum mixing). I think eastern/ne Colorado or areas off the ne mountains of New Mexico show some promise for thunder beginning as early as Thursday. This is supported by regional discussions. To me, the biggest issue is the possible chase area being negatively influenced by subsidence on the periphery of the eastern system. Regardless, a lot of weird things can happen this time of year in the western areas. I actually like the isolated, LP, hybrid classic storms or landspouts rather than the frustrating HP's we had to chase up in Kansas last year. I don't see any outbreaks, but there will be chase opportunities as others have pointed out. TWC is also reporting that VORTEX2 is stationed in Hays, KS, so I doubt they would be hanging out unless they thought there was some promise coming soon.
W.
W.
