Future of the season part deux

[John MacKay]

A little long here, but that's because I'm going into two locations.

When I was flying out from Phoenix, the humidity was starting to climb (it felt like it). That, and seeing a tornado warning close to your ultimate destination (Wichita) 4 hours out made me chuckle.

The forecast all of a sudden jumped up to near 110 degrees for the last two days, but it didn't get there due to the extra moisture entering Arizona. From what the SW US people are saying, the monsoon may come in 2-3 weeks earlier this year from my experience there (entering my 4th one this year). When the initial dewpoint rise combines with near 110 degree temperatures, isolated convection will start popping up. I think May is our driest month down there, so seeing anything before the beginning of June means the monsoon may come early. That said, there is a fail-safe timeline so far in my living in Arizona, and that is we haven't seen the string of 110s yet that preceeds the monsoonal-type moisture return. We'll have to see in the next week if the normal pattern preceeding a monsoon is still on track, or if this is a trend. I say a hiccup at the moment.

On the Kansas side, I'm enjoying this weather, but I keep nailing the quiet period in May the last three years, mainly because it has been happening around graduations. I at least got to go back out the weekend after I returned to Phoenix to get a tornado on May 25th. It is getting frustrating, especially when you fly in 2-3 hours after a severe thunderstorm line goes through that area.

Next year, I will be free on that, maybe.

Friday looks like it could have something happen in certain places. Saturday looks like a better shot at it, and I will be out chasing any plains stuff that day if it looks good enough. Sunday will be when I return to Phoenix before a Memorial Day MLB game at Chase Field.

I'll keep the eyes peeled, since Southwest is lowering near term fares on Saturdays and Mondays for selected flights to Denver (and Albuquerque, but not as dramatically there).

And as I type this, a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued just west of where I live in Phoenix metro. Go figure

 

[Darren Addy]

Memorial Day weekend chasers may want to take a closer look at SW and South-Central SD. Rapid City forecast discussion holds out a glimmer of hope:

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

I've yet to chase in South Dakota, so can't say much about the terrain/roads up there but it looks like there will be a boundary as a focal point for a few days that might not require a ton of extra miles to chase on multiple days of the long holiday weekend.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'll be Hurricane chasing in Illinois early June.

 

[John Lavin]

this has been my first season of really following the synoptic patterns daily...and I've just been waiting and waiting for a "textbook" setup but nothing... my friend is here from Arizona for his first real storm chasing season as well. I've been telling how there has been any downslope flow from any troughs south of the great plains other than a few days.

What are the chances of this long term ridge pattern breaking in the next few weeks? So far I don't see anything on the long term models to say other wise..

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Again, if the monsoon is starting in the southwest then we can unpack our bags and take out all of the chase equipment from our cars, cause this season is all but over.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

A slim chance is better than no chance

OK how does this sound?

Models now forecast a true tropical system to form in the EPAC 4-6 days from now. I am *hoping* that this will reverse the North East flow across the GOM or at least turn it more to the south to alow the Gulf to open for business.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Northeast Colorado/Southeast Wyoming

Actually, the weather pattern advertised by both the GFS and Model Ensembles is not too bad tornado-wise for Northeast Colorado, Southeast Wyoming, and even adjacent areas of Nebraska and Kansas. As many have already stated, this would be early to mid June weather arriving early.

All you need is to have 45+ deg F surface dewpoints, some weak-mod southeast low level flow, and a short-wave disturbance coming in from the southwest to keep storms going as they come off the mountains. Crank up the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone and you've got a decent chance at seeing a few landspouts. Additionally, these high plains areas have seen some monster hailers in northwest flow patterns.

The road systems are iffy in some areas, but eastern Colorado offers beautiful chase country anyway.

 

[Mark Blue]

Actually, the weather pattern advertised by both the GFS and Model Ensembles is not too bad tornado-wise for Northeast Colorado, Southeast Wyoming, and even adjacent areas of Nebraska and Kansas. As many have already stated, this would be early to mid June weather arriving early.

All you need is to have 45+ deg F surface dewpoints, some weak-mod southeast low level flow, and a short-wave disturbance coming in from the southwest to keep storms going as they come off the mountains. Crank up the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone and you've got a decent chance at seeing a few landspouts. Additionally, these high plains areas have seen some monster hailers in northwest flow patterns.

The road systems are iffy in some areas, but eastern Colorado offers beautiful chase country anyway.

I could not have said it better myself! This is my home territory and is where my wife and I will be chasing for the near term. Land spouts in Colorado are totally cool and can actually last for several minutes and are very photogenic. Several AFDs are indicating this as a real possibility, and the Vortex 2 project is close by so stay tuned!!

 

[Terry Kern]

Well maybe the trade off of this death ridge is an active hurricane season. Gulf water temps are already pushing 80 and up to 83 in the Carribean.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

All you have to do is run a loop of the satellite/radar in combination tonight at about 7 pm of the southwestern US. That should remove any doubts that the monsoon is in place. Heck, we even got some monsoon thunder poppers here last night!

OUCH - the GFS long range has the 588 mb upper high dug in now with it wobbling between Arizona and into TX and back. When it anchors into west TX, it stays until the end of August, but it usually doesn't happen until late late June into July.

 

[Mark Sefried]

Split flow and then an omega block high.. Can't get much worse than that! Hopefully I can change my week off and go chasing the week of June 14. I might as well dust the fishing poles off and get the old tent out and enjoy the weekends until the pattern becomes more favorable across the central and northern plains. Climatologically, chase season may be over with for the southern plains. I blew my only shot so far this year at seeing a tornado in MO last week as I got suckered into the southern cell that formed 20 miles south of the kirksville storm. I am still trying to figure out why that southern cell weakened so fast once it become tornado warned.. So, here's to hoping for an active mid to late June...

 

[Warren Faidley]

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]From AMA: PM Discussion 5-19-09:

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY THURSDAY AND THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE
THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND OUT OF A MEAN NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

From DDC:
[/FONT][FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]BUT IF THE MODELS BEAR OUT, WE COULD HAVE QUITE A
WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. [/FONT]

 

[Eric Bucsela]

GFS has increasing moisture over Southern Plains late weekend/early next week, with mid-lvl winds picking up (maybe 15 - 30 kt).

PUB discussion:
...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THE
PATTERN OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME MODEL INDICATE
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES TO
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. THIS MAY INCREASE THE SHEAR
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...REGION
MAY GET ANOTHER UPSLOPE SURGE...

 

[Paul Knightley]

ECMWF and GFS both show a weak southern stream developing through next week into the southern USA - in fact, ECMWF shows a nice dryline setting up in the TX Panhandle next week, and with 25-35 knot westerly flow aloft, and 15 knot easterlies at surface, and 68-70 dps, we could be in business!

 

[Kem Poyner]

panhandle magic

I think Warren coined the term "Panhandle Magic"? I am leaving tomorrow from Phoenix to drive out to for my annual chase vacation. I have"t even considered cancelling. I love a challenge. I will be out for a couple weeks. This crazy weather pattern is just plain crazy with our Monsoon already starting here in Arizona. Just watch what I can dig up from this "impossible" ridge crap. It will be fun to listen to these lazy chasers backtracking why things happened that shouldn"t have. You just play the cards that are delt and be thankful your healthy enough to enjoy the hunt. Some years you just gotta work alittle harder and drive alittle farther.