Future of the season part deux

[Kem Poyner]

death ridge

Blah..blah...blah.. You guys are all just jealous. In the future , when chasers talk about the 2009 season, instead of the tornados, they will be talking about the historic "death ridge" of late May.
Im leaving Phoenix on the 21 rst to go out on my chase vacation. Boy will you guys be eating crow when you see my incredible pictures of this historic event. Im just crazy enough to drive right through this puppy. Im fearless. Oprah...oh yeah, she will be calling me to tell the story to the world...
One question...what angle do you approach a death ridge for the best photo opportunities?

 

[David Mikulec]

...One question...what angle do you approach a death ridge for the best photo opportunities?

Blah. That's child's play. Just turn on your dash cam and punch the core. The resulting video is sure to be a YouTube hit!

 

[John Hudson]

I feel real bad for those who purchased seats on the tour vans for the last half of May. Two grand is a lot of jack for a week of "Americana" and kicking around museums.

Blaaaah!


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Peter Wharton]

Except, with rare exceptions, there's always localised opportunities to chase - seems like most of the chasers here feel that unless there's some major system with major cape and southwest flow aloft, it's a "death ridge" and not worth venturing out - in 7 years of chasing I've only had one week where it was only sunshine and that was the result of a major cold front scouring out the moisture with a 21F dewpoint at Corpus Christi. In many ways it's a great deal more interesting, and challenging, to chase on the really marginal setups, with limited moisture, looking for opportunities where no one else is around.

 

[John Hudson]

Except, with rare exceptions, there's always localised opportunities to chase - seems like most of the chasers here feel that unless there's some major system with major cape and southwest flow aloft, it's a "death ridge" and not worth venturing out - in 7 years of chasing I've only had one week where it was only sunshine and that was the result of a major cold front scouring out the moisture with a 21F dewpoint at Corpus Christi. In may ways it's a great deal more interesting, and challenging, to chase on the really marginal setups, with limited moisture, looking for opportunities where no one else is around.

Absolutely, I could not agree with you more. However, each has to base his/her opportunities on financial resources. There are many of us on limited budgets - most notably college students - who either cannot afford to chase marginal setups, or would sooner allocate the money to other priorities.

We all come from different circumstances, therefore many of us will have different risk/reward ratios we are willing to tolerate.

Just a thought.


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Good Grief! As if it could not get any worse.

Models now actually forecast a tropical depression to form over the Eastern GOM – if this actually happens? then you can kiss goodbye to any GOM moisture over the plains as the flow is all pulled around the depression,

 

[Mark Blue]

Looking at the ECMWF, it appears the "cut off" and/or tropical low forms off the western tip of Cuba on Friday, May 22nd, then slowly retrogrades to the northwest over the next three days when it finally winds up by New Orleans on May 25th. With this in mind it appears the GoM will be closed for business over the Memorial Day weekend. There appears to be a nice looking trough way out in the Pacific on the 10 day 500 mb height run, so maybe some hope still exists a couple of weeks from now.

There are shortwaves and dips in the jet throughout the period, but most of the disturbances are following the northern branch of the jet and are really far north for this time of year, climatologically speaking. With that low in the GoM there is going to be limited moisture to work with. It would be nice if something would change in the next few runs and kick that low in the GoM to the east instead of it drifting to the west like it's progged to do.

Does anyone have any ideas on scenarios that would make that happen? Marginal setups is the word for the next 10 days for sure!!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Wasn't there another recent year that we had a tropical low in the GoM during chase season? I can't remember the year.

 

[Mark Blue]

Was it 2006 (since it was a bad year)? I can't remember myself, but I bet someone like Jeff Snyder or Tim Vasquez would remember. They have a mind like a steel trap for details like that!!

 

[Kevin Myatt]

Good Grief! As if it could not get any worse.

Models now actually forecast a tropical depression to form over the Eastern GOM – if this actually happens? then you can kiss goodbye to any GOM moisture over the plains as the flow is all pulled around the depression,

One of the GFS runs (12Z I think) brought one Gulf low so far west it made landfall at Corpus Christi and then promptly replaced it with a new tropical low coming out of the Caribbean ... I just chuckled ...

We're delaying our trip 4 days, leaving Thursday instead of Sunday, just in an effort to better position our 2-week window to hopefully get a little beyond the upcoming pattern. Until that time, we'll be looking for the marginal setups. Some model support for a modest 500 mb vort to come out of the Rockies over Nebraska or Kansas about Friday and interact with a front sagging from the north. It's not much ... but ...

Maybe we can get some upslope help along the way too, and last long enough for a halfway decent trough in about 2 weeks. Maybe.

 

[Stan Rose]

2 weeks looks just fine to me. I just took my second look at the fantasy progs and that same persistent western trough that i saw 2 days ago is still there, introducing Chasers Heaven to the TX panhandle for the Memorial Day Weekend onward.

 

[Warren Faidley]

After some 22 years of tornado chasing alone, I have to say this is the way it works. There are dead periods. If you think this is bad, just imagine what it was like before laptops, in car radar and GPS! There were many bust years, even during good years, simply because chasing success was based on 70% instinct and experience -- unless you had some way of getting constant data, i.e., waiting in a NWS Office. I can also recall bust years because smoke from fires in Mexico made it impossible to see cu, towering cu or even a storm unless you were just a few miles away.

The main results of this break are three fold. 1: It weeds out a lot of people who are not serious about chasing. 2: It increases the value of footage and stills (and bragging rights) because of supply and demand. Lastly, for most of us hard core chasers, its the old psychological "reward and punishment system." Kind of like treasure hunting I've always equated. It drives us on to the next big event and makes it much more exciting and fulfilling. In other words, we do not get burned out.... even after 22 years!

W.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I was planning on staying out in IL after my graduation and going on a few day chase out in the plains over memorial day weekend before heading back to OH. But this death ridge which doesnt appear to weaken for atleast the next 10 days has me rethinking. Heading up to ND/SD for marginal set-ups over this time frame doesn't sound appealing at this point. UGH......(atleast I got my 'nader on Wednesday)

 

[Patrick Martin]

This ridging pattern makes me feel like I was pretty smart to fast track surgery that was needed, but in reality, I got lucky. My recoup period coincides with the ridge, and within 10 days I'll be able to be back on a ready, set, chase mode. I'm out chasing in the 3rd week of June on a scheduled trip, but if I can drag myself to work on Monday, I can use the saved PTO for early June.

I feel for those that have hard and fast dates set for the next 7-14 days. Hopefully troughing starts to come back as advertised.

 

[Kevin Ash]

With apologies to all the May chasers, tour groups, VORTEX2, and Edvard Munch, this 500mb forecast looks horrifyingly familiar...