Future of the season part deux

[Adam Lucio]

Long range GFS makes me want to hurl. It has death ridge written all over it

It almost makes sense too, with the stout caps weve been getting on these setups and the current zonal flow. That warm air is just piling up down there. Certainly Im no climatologist but current trends do seem to support what they're showing. We need old man winter to make one strong push to send a trough down with some waves to break that apart.

I hope my thoughts are wrong, if they're not I better jump on the setups next week...which also look to have a very stout cap in place.

This year seems to be favoring the very localized events, and rewarding those who can forecast the harder to see features the day of the event such as boundaries...although with the way chasing is now...it rewards them and everyone who follows them

 

[Skip Talbot]

Well you should take comfort in knowing how poorly the models have been performing lately. So if the models are plotting death ridge in the long range you can almost garuntee that the exact opposite is what's actually going to materialize.

 

[Fabian Guerra]

The GFS has consistently been showing good chase opportunities for next Tuesday-Thursday with TUE being the best day. The setups aren't necesarily perfect but I have the time off and raging sds. I think we'll have a strong day or two next week. Climatology will win....just watch.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Actually.... the 18z GFS (@500mb) run looks quite favorable ATM for classic dryline severe weather beginning possibly Tuesday, through Thursday and maybe beyond, although the models really fall apart after Thursday. (No news is good news). This kind of reflects the way most models have been tilting for the last week, with occasional burps. Yes, the cap may be an issue, but I'd rather have 1-2 good storms than a fleet of no-cap garbage. With the current dp set-up, it could really get interesting next week, considering favorable LCL's and boundaries after the first day of action. I suspect VORTEX will be making a westward trek down I-40 by Sun/Monday afternoon, so get your motel RSV's now!

I still think this year has great potential and the active pattern will return at some point, if even for a few days.

W.

 

[Dan Cook]

00z GFS continues the bleh pattern.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Exactly, Skip.

I have no idea why people are still so caught up in the flip flopping of the long term models. It's been obvious a long time that one needs to do more than just pull up the 384 hour GFS every 12 hours to get a handle on the upcoming pattern.

If many a perfect setup can vanish on the models, so can a bad one. Just be patient and let it come. Everyone else's obsession with the 200+ hour models is even giving -me- a headache.

Ed Berry goes much more into this on his blog, but here's an excerpt some need to take to heart:

[FONT=&quot]Disciplined serious daily weather-climate (WB (2007) GSDM sense) monitoring is critical UFN to gain a better understanding of the course of any additional subseasonal activity and possible ENSO ramifications. Using models as a stand alone is anything but scientifically complete and defensible.[/FONT]

 

[Adam Lucio]

Believe me I take it all with a grain of salt. For me I like to watch how the patterns evolve as time goes on...helps me understand the whole system better. I begin to notice trends and patterns in relation to current events and....for me...helps me learn.

Im not gloom and dooming the rest of the season by far as I know the GFS that far out is as reliable as a 1st grader trying to do the quadratic formula...

however im a passionate person and always express what i see

 

[Derek Weston]

Ah, yes, GFS long range is an abomination.

I'd say there has been a trend towards that for a bit... and this is not positive... however... as recent as a few days back we were seeing runs with more long term activity.

Since the Tue/Wed situation has been at least kept in play a number of runs now.... We've been trending towards a more and more mediocre scenario. Especially where day two (wed) is concerned.

Nothing to feel too good about... rather not have to hope we're just witnessing incompetency. Oh well, eh?

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I have been scouring the last several ensemble and Op runs of the medium range models to find a glimmer of good news about the overall weather pattern
from later next week on, and have been unable to find it. A strong consensus is now emerging for, dare I say it...a "death ridge" over the Rockies after the middle of next week.
Tuesday still looks like some chasing could be in the cards in the Dakotas and maybe Nebraska, and Wednesday has the potential for some tail-end action in the KS/OK area as the front moves
slowly south. After that it looks pretty bleak for at least a week. Of course if we are going to have this sort of amplification it is better to have it in the middle of May, since it is is unlikely it will be the final lifting north of the jet that often will signal the true death knell for the season. There is still plenty of reason to hope for a better pattern in late May and June, but right now tornadoes may be hard to come by the next 1-2 weeks. I really hope I am wrong about this, especially for the sake of VORTEX 2. MY personal 2 week expedition (excepting fly-out chases) will not begin until May 30th, thank goodness...

 

[Eric Bucsela]

A strong consensus is now emerging for, dare I say it...a "death ridge" over the Rockies after the middle of next week....it looks pretty bleak for at least a week.

Thanks, Matt, for your excellent, if disheartening analysis!

Less than 2 days ago in this thread, Warren Faidley wrote:

The good news is that most of the long range models are now in agreement of setting up SW flow next week......the Ensembles are showing a western trough as far out as the models go.

So what's going on?

 

[Warren Faidley]

It is somewhat unusual to see such an overall, pronounced pattern/seasonal change so quickly -- but it happens. The GFS has been all over the place this year, but has generally come into line within 3-4 days. The NCEP Ensemble models have done a much better job, for longer range forecasting. In fact: (They are still showing SW flow for the extended (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f240_nh.html) -- but again, the surface details, cap, etc, can factor). For shorter terms, most plains area WSO's are now using the NAM according to the discussions. There is still hope, although the chase modes may not be very popular. We may have to settle for later season NW flow events, or just be prepared to chase in Canada.....lol.
W.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Here is the CPC's 8-14 day precipitation outlook, issued yesterday. For those who do not have the main link, here it is: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

If the models are driving you crazy, I suggest reading the discussions on their pages in relation to precipitation forecasts. They are not as complex as Ed Berry's, but they do give interesting insight.

 

[Dave Lewison]

The NCEP Ensemble models have done a much better job, for longer range forecasting. In fact: (They are still showing SW flow for the extended (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f240_nh.html) --

Warren, the link you've posted hasn't updated since Tuesday's model runs. Seems that entire page hasn't updated since then. For the GFS ensembles, I'm using this page now, which has the 06Z and 18Z runs as well:
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/ensembles/

The recent runs of the GFS seem to be homing in on a largely zonal pattern with a flat trough in the northern plains early in the week. The latter parts of the week look pretty awful at the moment, but that can still change, due to the large amount of spread on the ensembles. I believe there are possibilities for Tuesday up in the S. NE region, with a plunging cold front moving the good juice south into OK on Wednesday, south of the better flow. Veering 850s from the departing low would also make me think that Wednesday won't be as good as Tuesday.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks for correcting.... posted old link. W.

 

[David Mikulec]

It sure would be nice if it did. But at the rate things are going we'll be chasing in canoes here in the Bluegrass.

...Anyway, I hate looking at long range models, but looks like the SE & Ohio Valley will be the place to be from the 14th through the 21st!

Yes I'm bias!