Andrew Pritchard
EF5
GFS says; wow, I sure hope we have an active June.
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
Eric Bucsela
EF2
ECMWF (today's 12z) is hinting May 11 might be a good day; GFS now has a trough moving through around May 10 instead. For the most part, both models have been predicting a progressive, mostly zonal flow pattern for the coming week. Beyond that, GFS does look pretty bad.
Overall, I think the ECMWF has a better track record than the GFS, but I'd like to see several consistent runs before getting hopes up about May 11 - or any other day. In the past month, ECMWF has made some huge day-to-day flip-flops on forecasts as short as 6 days out.
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Mike Hollingshead
Damn, I just got a look at the 12z MFM for May 11 0z. Lovely negative tilt trough plowing through the rockies kicking out a wsw 50 knot mid-level jet atop a broad 40-50 knot sse low level jet. Juice looks fine as it's indicating dews around 70 with 4000-5000 CAPE! This over a broad area from nc Nebraska to c Oklahoma. Now just need to fast forward and get it to happen.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
Chad Cowan
EF5
The Euro is on board with the GFS for late next weekend. 12z GFS is showing a small area of 80+ dps in OK later this week. I'm stocking up on MiniDV tapes.
BTW, Mike H, what is the MFM model and where can I find it?
BTW, Mike H, what is the MFM model and where can I find it?
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
After I posted that I left and thought about adding "... but if so many good setups can vanish on the long term GFS, perhaps a couple crappy patterns can vanish as well"
This morning's run looks a wee better. Hard to imagine we'd go the entire first half of May without a little bit of a shot.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
The Gulf is stacked and ready to open the flood gates. If we can get a decent trough come through like the various models are showing for mid May, it'll be GO TIME! 65 to 70+ dewpoints look to be on the horizon with some kind of decent kinematic environment within the next 10 to 15 days.
Derek Weston
EF5
GFS has had this system in its runs for a while now. I've been tentatively planning for a couple of good chasing days sometime around next weekend.
Though, before that... Tuesday looks like an interesting play down in TX/OK
After next weekend then... GFS had been somewhat active lately (see last 3 days worth of runs) in putting out some nice surface lows in the plains... very varied in position... but looking like some opportunities in the 11-16th time frame. (possibly in the upper plains to midwest area?)
Though, before that... Tuesday looks like an interesting play down in TX/OK
After next weekend then... GFS had been somewhat active lately (see last 3 days worth of runs) in putting out some nice surface lows in the plains... very varied in position... but looking like some opportunities in the 11-16th time frame. (possibly in the upper plains to midwest area?)
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I'm very content not dealing with Texas and Oklahoma anymore, so it will be nice to finally see the Interstate 70 and 80 corridors opening up.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Mike Hollingshead
Mike's Fantasy Model...lol. SDS quite strong right now.
Derek Weston
EF5
The GFS...she givith...and she taketh away. We spoke too soon, the bastard model's 0z run sent everything back down to I-40 for Sat and then totally left town on Sunday.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Well, Ed Berry mentioned this in his most recent blog... but given the recent chaos with La Nina ebs and flows and various other currents that are beyond my knowledge right now the models are -very- chaotic. Using them and only them is going to get you nowhere beyond a couple days. There very well could be a major system next week, but I can pretty much gaurantee what it shows at 7 days out now will not be a reality next Sunday night.
While I'll continue to check each run purely because I suffer under the same time consuming curse all the rest of you are under in the month of May, it's pretty well pointless. Especially pointless too get excited or upset over what the models show a week out. ECMWF has been the most consistant, but even it was way off on it's forecast for this coming week, last week. According to the run's it gave me mid-week, I should be gearing up for a major outbreak in IA/IL/MO on Tuesday! I can't wait! </sarcasm>
While I'll continue to check each run purely because I suffer under the same time consuming curse all the rest of you are under in the month of May, it's pretty well pointless. Especially pointless too get excited or upset over what the models show a week out. ECMWF has been the most consistant, but even it was way off on it's forecast for this coming week, last week. According to the run's it gave me mid-week, I should be gearing up for a major outbreak in IA/IL/MO on Tuesday! I can't wait! </sarcasm>
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Adam Lucio
EF5
Hey now Andrew, SPC has us in a SEE TEXT bullseyes Wednesday. Ive already reserved Tuesday off so I can consider my Target, and I also took Thursday off to give me sufficent time to upload all the tornado video I will get.
Yea I remember last week it showed an awesome setup around here...and now were looking at ANOTHER local red river valley chase for Tuesday. Saying that it was a little bit off would be an understatement if ever there was one.
I was joking with Danny that the jet stream would probably make a leap of faith and once its done with the red river area it would skip the mid section and leap frog into the Dakotas....then my dumbass has to look at the long range GFS and sure enough...bullseyes over the dakotas and MN.
Im taking it all with a grain of salt...if anything the boring patterns have left me with a stockpile of days off so whenever we get that stalled troughing pattern I could very well take off for the enitre duration of it...wherever it sets up.
I am curious to see what all the SPCers and leeches will do once we get a MDT risk that covers 4 states instead of 4 counties though
Yea I remember last week it showed an awesome setup around here...and now were looking at ANOTHER local red river valley chase for Tuesday. Saying that it was a little bit off would be an understatement if ever there was one.
I was joking with Danny that the jet stream would probably make a leap of faith and once its done with the red river area it would skip the mid section and leap frog into the Dakotas....then my dumbass has to look at the long range GFS and sure enough...bullseyes over the dakotas and MN.
Im taking it all with a grain of salt...if anything the boring patterns have left me with a stockpile of days off so whenever we get that stalled troughing pattern I could very well take off for the enitre duration of it...wherever it sets up.
I am curious to see what all the SPCers and leeches will do once we get a MDT risk that covers 4 states instead of 4 counties though
Mike Hollingshead
12z ECMWF showing some pretty nice signs in the May 12th on time frame. 2004 II here we come! Jinx lol.
