Future of the season part deux

[Eric Bucsela]

This system is still too far out to know for sure how the weekend will play out but this is definitely something to watch.

Agree, and if you don't mind looking beyond the weekend, the 00Z Euro model has troughiness in the west most of the week with an eastern ridge (=open Gulf?). Anyway, all depends on the details and where surface features set up, but it could be an active chase week...

 

[Adam Penney]

12Z GFS continues to advertise a possible "multi-day" event this weekend into early next week. Saturday continues to look like the best oppurtunity, IMO. If the cold front does indeed crash through the plains, the early week chase ops may be confined to OK/TX.

Due to a busy work schedule for me this year, this will be my first chance to get out and chase. I have the next 7 days off, so I will be out chasing whatever there is to chase, lol. I am hoping for some bigger outbreaks, but just getting out in the warmth and humidity and hopefully some good structure will make me a happy camper this go around.

We will see how this evolves over the coming days.....

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Looks to me like Saturday in western KS maybe and then??? That cold front looks to be a big spoiler. 18z GFS moving it even quicker, pretty much killing any thoughts about a Sunday chase. Prog'ing some pretty cold air behind that front and this time of year, it seems the winner goes to the cold front. I could see Saturday w KS, Sunday.....hmmm.....and Monday in far southwest TX. (My brain is already starting to kick out the "just sit this system out" even though I never actually do)

 

[Adam Penney]

Ya Mike, gotta hate that cold front. Im pretty much dying to get out and chase, so if one is really hoping, you can still see that NE TX near or just east of the Wichita Falls area Sunday through Tuesday. Extreme SC/SE OK would be possible as well.

This will change a million times over, so im just hoping at this point....

 

[Connor McCrorey]

That cold front sucks, that's for sure. But it's looking like TX/OK could have a lot of fun in the next couple of weeks.

(By the way Adam, Wichita Falls isn't generally considered "NE" TX by those of us from around here, more NC or even NW. Just for clarification )

 

[Adam Penney]

Well tonights 0Z GFS sucks even worse than the 12Z. Cold front wipes just about everything out past Sunday, and Sunday looks very iffy.

Its starting to look like Saturday or bust...

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

This system is still to far out to know for sure how the weekend will play out but this is defiantly something to watch.

Got that right, my friend!

Things tend to drift up here a month or so from now, anyway, so I'm not worried. After about two or three days (if that) the real answer for specifics and even generals with modeling and guessing and so on is: who knows? Remember, at this time last year there had been jack for chasing and a whole string of days of NO REPORTS RECEIVED, and then we had May.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Well for what it is worth, the 0z ECMWF appears to leave a lot more hope for Sunday especially to the north. Lead wave is stronger and you got strong mid-levels over strong low level jut, but surely a bit on the cold fronty side. Wouldn't take much of a change from what it has to be a big day. Course it doesn't look to have a ton of support yet.

6z GFS also now not nearly as fast with the cold front Sunday.

C'mon 12z runs.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Mods... I think this discussion can be moved over to the forecast section..

W.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Too early to start a forecast thread, but has anyone looked out towards the 160ish hour on the GFS, and the ECMWF? This trough in the western US stays put and amplifies during this period and really becomes dynamic, with moisture even better then this weekends setup. Extreme instability is looking more and more likely.

I may sit this weekend out and wait for next weekend towards May 1st. The entire next week and a half looks to be active in the plains!

 

[Darren Addy]

I think having a "future of the season" thread like this is great. A place where we can discuss stuff that is farther out than what falls within the 7 day Target Area restriction. Sure, it is more subject to change, but that doesn't mean we don't like to kick it around.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I agree Darren.

I seem to make myself look like an a$$ by trying to pinpoint things like surface features 5 or 6 days out and by then, the entire synoptic scale pattern has drastically changed!

 

[Derek Weston]

Too early to start a forecast thread, but has anyone looked out towards the 160ish hour on the GFS, and the ECMWF? This trough in the western US stays put and amplifies during this period and really becomes dynamic, with moisture even better then this weekends setup. Extreme instability is looking more and more likely.

I may sit this weekend out and wait for next weekend towards May 1st. The entire next week and a half looks to be active in the plains!

The 12z GFS run for this today was hot hot hot....

GFS has consistently been keeping up the big CAPE with a nice surface low later in the week. (do believe that April 30 would be the big day as of now)

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Looks like things will calm down a little bit for the next couple of days after later this week, according to the GFS anyways.... but it seems it might pick up again after the 5th. I hope so anyways... we leave for the alley on the 2nd for two weeks so hopefully we end up with something decent! Coming from Ontario is quite a haul for blue skies. Obviously though you can't really depend on the GFS that far out either...

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking at the GFS and more so, the NCEP models, it looks like zonal or even NW flow for the near future (after Sunday), with the next SW flow event forecast for around May 11. It is interesting to note that just a few days ago, the NCEP models were showing SW flow almost as far as they went out. I think, they will flop in the May 7-8 range, given the climatology and the fact that we are still seeing zonal or NW flow, not a serious ridge.

W.