Future of the season part deux

[George Limpert]

I wouldn't put too much faith in the mid-range GFS solution right now. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GEM are slower and appear more reasonable. With substantial differences between models, I don't feel confident enough in pinning down an area for any of the days from Wednesday through Friday and starting a target area thread. But I expect there will be one or more episodes of severe weather sometime during that period.

 

[Derek Weston]

this is all very long range, of course, but the GFS has consistently been drawing in quite a bit of moisture to the plains and even midwest here within a few weeks. While we'll have ridge fun for a while, GFS has been projecting activity to pickup later in April around the start of the 4th week. (ok, I'll admit it, I'm just giddy to see big CAPE values showing up again)

It's getting to be that time of year, kids... the wait shall not be too much longer.

(you can attribute this post to SDS)

And not that I can understand more than just a bit of what he says, Ed Berry thinks we'll be heading back into a "troughy" phase soon enough. (not that we'd be necessarily expecting any death ridges right now anyway... again... probably SDS posting this)
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Yea the moisture is a problem now, but that was the case in 2004 too. March and April were moisture starved and patience paid off with an awesome May and June even July and August were active on the Plains. I think we will see a slow start with an intense end to the season just like last year. We'll see I guess.

Dude, you probably just jinxed us this year. Justin and I have been talking (very casually) about how 2004 started off similar to this year. Everyone was writing off 2004 and things we looking bleak; then May 12th came and the rest is history.

Looking at the latest runs of the medium range models it appears we might get a break next week from the successive systems which have continued to scour the GOM. There hasn't been enough consistency yet in the model runs to have much confidence in this yet, however things may be looking up. The GOM needs several days without a frontal intrusion with good trajectories from the Caribbean as well as strong insolation to allow for deep moisture to really load up.

If we can get that to happen then maybe we have a chance. Of course by the time this would likely happen we would be very close to the first of May!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Since the future of the season is all but here, looks like things start to get interesting after this Thursday. I've been watching NCEP's persistent hinting and after reading area forecast discussions (AMA, LBB, etc), I'm confident (better than a 50/50 chance) of a prolonged period of severe weather beginning as early as Friday (24th) into early the following week.

W.

 

[Adam Lucio]

There was a thread about the 24h and beyond somewhere, but I cant seem to locate it now. I was searching for it because I wanted to see what everyones latest take was. To me it looks like GFS slowed the troughing down a bit which painted a really nice setup around Tuesday the 28th. Some possibly warm front days ahead of that too with such a large area of moisture return for several days. I havent checked any of the most recent runs though. Something I know many are watching with an eager eye.

Where did that thread go? Did it turn into a flame war that ended up getting it deleted? A shame if thats the case.

 

[Ron Riemersma]

Where did that thread go? Did it turn into a flame war that ended up getting it deleted? A shame if thats the case.

You're probably right about that...

 

[Brian Jalas]

Unfortunate flame war

I was watching that thread about the 24th and beyond. The last 8 messages on it were a back and forth between two people so it needed to be removed. I hope this weekend is good, I have a 3 day weekend starting on friday! It looks like that trough may wait until monday or tuesday to really dig in We shall see

 

[Derek Weston]

been looking like crap lately with the GFS. That's what the trend has been. Crap.

Sure, on Friday some likely linear storms in my neck of the woods perhaps... but then a major cold front sweeps through and wipes out everything but Texas. (bout as close as you can get to killing gulf yet again) With no major changes in the following week...

Meh.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

The current 12Z GFS sucks, but up until this run, most ensemble means, as well as the EURO still showed a favorable pattern this weekend into early next week; as the initial piece of energy moves through this weekend, the GFS does want to surge the CF South (MUCH more so on 12Z), but on previous runs it really was no big deal as the shortwave track and associated low pressure center track was a little more North and good Southerly flow has been progged to prevail. For several days some decent southern High plains DL events seemed probable. Have yet to peek at the 12Z EURO, but it will be interesting to see if it trends with the GFS or if it sticks with the 0Z solution from last night, even as sour as the 12Z GFS run was, I still see a couple of intriguing chase days as it plays out...

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I was watching that thread about the 24th and beyond. The last 8 messages on it were a back and forth between two people so it needed to be removed.

Really? I thought I saw something about chicken, beef, fajitas, shrimp, and some other food items in there... I can't remember who it was though.

I haven't been following too closely, but I know that we're all hoping things are about to ramp up here very, very soon. A two day chase this weekend would be perfect

 

[Derek Weston]

The current 12Z GFS sucks, but up until this run, most ensemble means, as well as the EURO still showed a favorable pattern this weekend into early next week; as the initial piece of energy moves through this weekend, the GFS does want to surge the CF South (MUCH more so on 12Z), but on previous runs it really was no big deal as the shortwave track and associated low pressure center track was a little more North and good Southerly flow has been progged to prevail. For several days some decent southern High plains DL events seemed probable. Have yet to peek at the 12Z EURO, but it will be interesting to see if it trends with the GFS or if it sticks with the 0Z solution from last night, even as sour as the 12Z GFS run was, I still see a couple of intriguing chase days as it plays out...

Yes, being a bit hasty...

However... trend towards sucktitude continues. However... Sat in Oklahoma looking good. (enough for GFS play by play for now )

 

[Shane Adams]

Not to be starting trouble, but since most on ST are extremely location-biased, it might be wise to include this information when discussing how models look "sucky" or not; for the KS/OK/TX area the GFS has been and continues to look quite favorable for at least one decent chase day.

I noticed the people who've been down on the GFS (overall) seem to be located further north, where, as you all have said, it does suck this weekend.

 

[Joshua Horenstein]

Hmmm can someone help explain this highly technical discussion from today's DDC office ?

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, WITH A LEAD SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT INTO
TX ON THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS RAPIDLY GOES DOWN THE TOILET, WITH
DIFFERENT HANDLING ON THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Actually up north we will be happy to have some true warm sunny weather if no storms. If i cant chase then I want to be outside BBQing drinking and fishing. So ill take that as a happy second option.

Still thinking there will be some good chase days starting This weekend perhaps as early as Friday but likely Saturday. The latest GFS runs still want to sag a cold front south with the euro keeping it more north.

Yesterday the 12Z GFS had a 5000 j/kg -12 LI bullseye in Oklahoma [300hrs out lol] which was way inconsistent with all of its previous runs as well as the 18z run [which normaly Im not a fan of] So I dont know how much faith I would put in that run from yesterday. I havent taken a look at much today. I think models will get a good handle on the overall pattern once it actually develops, were still in the pre transitional stage right now but there will be some good chase ops this weekend and early next week i think.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I don't think anyone should be complaining since we have had very little thunder storm activity in the north and getting a line of storms is better then nothing at all. (Good for lightning shots) This system is still to far out to know for sure how the weekend will play out but this is definitely something to watch.