First High Risk of 2008?

[Derek Weston]

And the correct answer is: Feb. 5th, 2008. Much of Arkansas along with the NW corner of Mississippi and a very tiny portion of SW Tennessee.

How close is this to the earliest high risk we've seen -- or is it?

 

[Cort Scholten]

How close is this to the earliest high risk we've seen -- or is it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days

(I know, it's Wikipedia, but they do an excellent job there with severe-weather-related articles, especially tropical weather. Their source was http://sphs.angeltowns.net/A_R_Wehrle/highrisk.html, which kept good archives until it went dead.) So from the looks of it, there was one high risk in January, and surprise, it was in Arkansas!

 

[Karen Politte]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days

(I know, it's Wikipedia, but they do an excellent job there with severe-weather-related articles, especially tropical weather. Their source was http://sphs.angeltowns.net/A_R_Wehrle/highrisk.html, which kept good archives until it went dead.)

Huh, I didn't know that Andy's site was down - including his High Risk database. Andy's a member on here - Andy - you out there?? What happened?

Anyways - the answer's been given. 02/05/2008, in my state.

KL

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm not crazy about the idea, but ... Feb. 18th, The Arklatex Region

Feb. 18: Ne LA, E AR, S MS, Sw AL. Circulation around Bermuda high sets up good moisture flow from the Gulf, rapidly moving CF comes in from Nw. Atmosphere in front of the front becomes strongly destablized. Cap will be weak, and the speed of the front produces tremendous lift that easily fires off storms. Individual cells are short-lived, but development of new storms is continuous. Shear is questionable, so main threats will be flash flooding, large hail, and strong winds.

Heidi and Doug won the competitiion... they were both 13 days off. Congrats Heidi, your prize in an outbreak in your backyard

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I knew I'd chosen the 18th but I didn't realize I was still in the running! A tiny bit off on my designated area, too small to begin with. I had no idea, though!

And HOLY COW, I have the HIGH RISK in my own back yard.

I think my prize should be a nice Wizard of Oz style hose in an open field that does zero damage. Hey, I have a 30% chance of seeing that today!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Huh, I didn't know that Andy's site was down - including his High Risk database. Andy's a member on here - Andy - you out there?? What happened?

Anyways - the answer's been given. 02/05/2008, in my state.

KL

Hacker attack killed it around early September 2007 (I had to send 2 emails to AngelTowns to get that explanation) and I no longer have the time or motivation to find a new host and restore it all.

 

[Dan Cook]

Andy do you still have the files? I offered you hosting last year for the db.

 

[Marko Korosec]

March 7th - parts of AR/MO/TN/MS/LA

Oh man my guess was not that bad... the only mistake I made was the date (well and excluded KY state)

Anyways nice guess, Karen! And good look to people living and chasing there today, definatelly not a good chasing terrain in that "jungle".

 

[JGaskamp]

anyone on the system today East and North East of Dallas?

 

[Eric Flescher]

was anyone in Tennessee chasing ? reports of tornado just recently

I heard a tornado touched down in TN . Memphis or Nashville? anyone see it or chase near it?

curious I am

 

[Maggie Kahman]

the first super-outbreak of 2008, and its my 21st bithday.

 

[Doug Lee]

Wow, I was going off of hunches, and also playing around a bit.

My target area was pretty close, but waaay too small. About the only other thing I got wrong was the tornado threat. Wish I had been right about that.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Andy do you still have the files? I offered you hosting last year for the db.

The link and password you gave me didn't work. I still have most, probably all of the files (not sure I made a bunch of partial backups but always forgot something in each one lol) on CD-ROMs or my laptop's hard drive which is currently out of commission (Windows went kaput and the computer won't run properly, although my files are still intact).

It would probably be easier for me to mail you a master archive CD-ROM than to try to send all the thousands of files via e-mail. Contact me by PM or AIM and we can discuss this further.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm going to guess the first high risk of the year will be:

February 5 AR/TN/MS/KY/MO

 

[Danny Neal]

I'm going to guess the first high risk of the year will be:

February 5 AR/TN/MS/KY/MO

You FORGOT ILLINOIS!!!!! lol

Everyone forgets Illinois We are the Oklahoma Sooners of Tornado alley.....no respect lol