Chase Case #2

[Danny Neal]

EDIT: After taking a quick look this morning when I woke up, for some unknown reason I am infatuated with the Triple Point and warm front/dryline intersection. So I took a 4 hour drive up to Ness City, KS so I can position myself at the best of both worlds.

12Z - 16Z on the road to Ness City.

From my earlier post..... May have been lost in the shuffle so just updating...

 

[Jason Foster]

Damn that was an early wake up call.....lol

OK, if we're going to role-play this:
7am CDT
Yawn....waking up early attm....after listening to my chase partner snore all night and not having had my coffee yet, but just thinking I like the triple point might be the place to be at first glance, but I love chasing dryline stuff in Texas. I'll likely pick a preliminary spot somewhere along the KS/OK border east of the dryline to start.

8am CDT OK, I've had my coffee looked at the data, and now I'm thinking my first stop region will be Alva, OK. I like to chase starting with a southern preference, and I'm thinking that the Kansas triple point area will have the most activity that is of the supercell style I like to chase, and Alva only puts me 4 hours outside of Russell, KS (according to DeLorme). However, I'm also favoring this location because I'm love to chase isolated supercells in the Texas panhandle....and if that option presents itself, I can go for that.....since DeLorme tells me it is 5.25 hours to Childress...and I know I can make it faster than that.

For this role play, I'll be in Alva by 1pm just about the time the 18z is coming out.

 

[Brad Nelson]

Hey Brad I think you meant this for chase case #3 maybe? Or maybe Im missing something huge here

Anyways, Im still chillin in coldwater, waiting for the updates, only a few hours away. Time to steal a power nap.

You are correct sir! I deleted it out of here and re-posted in Case Study #3. Still getting used to Stormtrack

 

[Patrick Martin]

Target: Hays KS

I like triple point currently in NE CO and I think as the system back to the west deepens, that moisture return and flow in the west/central KS will improve. I am thinking also, as others have mentioned, the dryline/triple point will not progress east terribly fast.

It's 7am MDT (13z - assuming we are in DST already) and I am leaving the house and heading out on I-70 with an initial target of Hays KS. I should arrive in time to grab lunch, have a look at the 18z data, and adjust position as needed.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I will target Emporia, Kansas, based on its proximity to the occluded/soon-to-be warm front, and the fact that the dryline will probably advance eastward pretty quickly today due to rather shallow moisture west of I-35. Plus, I am just on the edge of the strong mid-level baroclinic zone and expect significant warm advection to deepen the low center and assist in breaking what appears to be a decent cap (23C at 850 at DDC).

 

[Shelli Valdivia]

This is my first time trying to read surface charts. I am going to put myself in medicine lodge and see what happens...

 

[Sam Kennedy]

I've looked over the charts again and Dallas TX looks like a better place to be chasing, so I am Paying $400 and for a flight from Sioux Falls to Dallas TX, it will take 4:30 hours. I will also have to rent a car for when I get to Texas. So in 4.5 hours I will be in Dallas, TX

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'll be going to Red Cloud, NE to see if anything along the warm front or advancing triple point blows anything up. In my opinion, not much can happen north of the warm front to the north of central Nebraska, and shear is too crappy out west. I don't like the warm bubble at 850 over KS, though. However, out in central Kansas, 850 isn't THAT high above the surface, so maybe that will mix down to the surface and erode the cap.

 

[Chad Cowan]

18z UPDATE

18z 300mb:

18z 500mb:

18z 700mb:

18z 850mb:

18z MLCAPE:

18z Effective Shear:

18z 0-3km shear:

1630z SPC Convective Outlook: (edited to remove locations)

 

[Josh Richardson]

Im now hauling butt way back north again, would like to shoot for a Grand Island to Lincoln to Beatrice area so we'll go with Fairmont NE.

 

[Danny Neal]

Well it is 18Z and am sitting right on the dryline in Ness City. SPC outlook mentions 21Z-00Z rapid severe development. I am thinking about heading up to north of I-70 and perhaps east a bit too. It would take an hour and fifty minutes to hit Stockton KS and another hour to hit Belleville, Kansas. Close enough to the triple point and should be there by 21Z in time for I hope explosive development. I can see a broken line of supercells initiating along the warm front/dryline in E NE and trailing down to the I 70 area in Kansas.

Belleville, Kansas by 21Z

 

[Tom Dulong]

Guess I committed to the southern target (srn hi plains) too early. I am now way out of position to reach the "sweet spot" in eastern Nebraska. Oh well,
perhaps I can get a nice shot of an isolated LP near the dry line in west TX before dark.

 

[John Farley]

Sitting in Lawrence, KS, I realize I am either too far east or too far south. But which one? Based on the much better directional shear along the warm front, among other factors, I am now blasting north toward my new target of NEBRASKA CITY, NE. It would be easier to go west to central KS along I-70, and there certainly is potential there, but I think with the good shear along the WF, somewhere in central to SE Nebraska will be the place to be.

Mapquest says this is about a 2.5 hour drive, so I should be in OK position to catch some daytime storms, if the warm front doesn't move north too fast.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

I'm still sticking with my decision for Dallas TX, I would be about half way there already.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Not moving from my initial target of Kearney, NE - I like the shear along the WF, ample CAPE and ongoing insolation.