Chase Case #2

[Paul Austin]

I'll set up shop near Kinsley, KS with several road options for adjustments to whatever the dry line and moisture axis do during the morning/early afternoon. A bit more CAPE further south, but the upper air support is further north. Like an idiot, I'll probably end up where neither exists.

Looking at the soundings: SW & SC Kansas appears to be strongly capped attm. I'm hoping the "juice" further south advects northward toward my target, but I'll probably get impatient and race S toward the higher CAPE and dryline bulge or N toward the boudary/low intersection with better backing and upper air dynamics, especially if I see clear blue skies by afternoon with promising convection N or S of my position. That's when I likely miss the big show near my initial target. I'm really good at bailing out of good target areas Hoping for a clearer picture with the 18z update.

 

[Bob Hartig]

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/42/12z850ww3.gif The red is temperature and the green are dewpoints. You can see the deeper moisture's contour lines on the US/Mexico border down there pushing northward. It's still 12z and I never wake up this early anyways to analyze anyways ! But at 7 a.m. and 24 degrees C at 850 mb in SW KS, the air there is most likely capped just above the surface...and it looks like it's advecting northward with the front.

Okay, I can see it now...provided I squint real hard. (Am I the only one who has trouble tacking numbers to isopleths on some of these charts?) Thanks for explaining! And I follow your reasoning re the warm advection at 850. The 700s don't look bad, though, at 9 C in W KS and with cooler air moving in by the afternoon (crossing fingers here!) as the low translates east. Still sticking to my bid for east of the triple point, though I suspect the 18z run will have me busting west a bit. Good chasing to you out there in the Panhandle.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I think I'll start off in Blackwell, OK

 

[Chad Cowan]

Interesting selections so far, we're all over the place! Sam, I'll give you a hint... stay south of Canada and north of Mexico. I'm updating the map now with everyone's locations. It can be seen here: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54011

I will release the 18z data at 4pm CST tomorrow, so get your targets in before then.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm heading toward Red Cloud,Ne: I think Dick is right about his concern over the really high warm air advection at 850mb, even tough I think that some nicely moist air and some nice convergence in the low level can help the convection around late evening, along the triple point.

 

[Shane Adams]

I will release the 18z data at 4pm CST tomorrow, so get your targets in before then.

Actually, I'm waiting for the 18z update so I can choose a target

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I would head west to Clinton, OK...hopefully getting there by 10-11am so I would have a chance to go farther north if I needed.

 

[JF Massicotte]

I'll start my day in Hays, Ks, redy to move up north when 18z is out...

 

[Tony Perkins]

12Z Data:
I'm going to start my day north and begin from Hays, KS

 

[Tom Dulong]

Based on the 12Z data, I have already decided to play a southerly target today. Currently heading southwest from OKC toward ABI, which I should reach by late afternoon. From there, I shall wait for scattered deep convection to develop in the warm sector east of the dry line.

 

[Matthew Harding]

I think that enough moisture will advect north into KS that the triple point will be in play. Based on road options and where I believe the triple point will be, I will start in Great Bend, KS and wait for the 18z data.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

There are some extremely warm 850 temps sitting out there right now getting ready to advect in the near dryline environment in Western Oklahoma. I'm thinking that the cap bust potential is rather high along the dryline. With that said, I guess I'm pulling out of Norman early this morning and driving up to Russell, KS with the anticipation I'll probably be readjusting N and E to stay ahead of the triple point and hoping for the best.

Target: Russell, KS

 

[Chris Allington]

Based on the 12z data... I do not necissarily like the Southern Target, but I do like the potential triple point that should set up somewhere in the North central KS or South central NE.

Prelim Target: Hastings, NE. I like the road options in the area as I can get South into KS in a hurry, or jump E or W on I-80. A short hour and 45 minuet drive for me and I'm visiting a couple college friends or in a hotel parking lot with wifi.

 

[Adam Lucio]

The northern area sure looks like a cold core set up in my opinion. We have a vigorous occlusion going on over ND and surface low development probably taking place through the day across northeast SD into southeast ND ~200 miles southeast of the 500 mb center that seems to be hinted at from the 00Z pressure graphic. The coldest 500 mb temps are in MN to the western Dakotas as well as the higher 850 mb dewpoints...also some 0-3km CAPE in this area as well. I'd be targeting somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND at this point, likely around the Fergus Falls, MN area for a northern target.

The southern target is a bit tricky but with a surface low in the OK Panhandle in the morning but hard to judge where the surface low would be by 00Z. Looking at some major moisture transport northward with 50 kts analyzed at 925 mb in OKC. Also a dryline setting up from western OK into western TX. I'd probably want to target the northern end of the dryline across western OK...maybe near the Hinton, OK area west of OKC.

Interesting case!

Hey Brad I think you meant this for chase case #3 maybe? Or maybe Im missing something huge here

Anyways, Im still chillin in coldwater, waiting for the updates, only a few hours away. Time to steal a power nap.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

The northern area sure looks like a cold core set up in my opinion. We have a vigorous occlusion going on over ND and surface low development probably taking place through the day across northeast SD into southeast ND ~200 miles southeast of the 500 mb center that seems to be hinted at from the 00Z pressure graphic. The coldest 500 mb temps are in MN to the western Dakotas as well as the higher 850 mb dewpoints...also some 0-3km CAPE in this area as well. I'd be targeting somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND at this point, likely around the Fergus Falls, MN area for a northern target.

The southern target is a bit tricky but with a surface low in the OK Panhandle in the morning but hard to judge where the surface low would be by 00Z. Looking at some major moisture transport northward with 50 kts analyzed at 925 mb in OKC. Also a dryline setting up from western OK into western TX. I'd probably want to target the northern end of the dryline across western OK...maybe near the Hinton, OK area west of OKC.

Interesting case!

I think you were looking at chase case 3 and posted here...

There are no 00z forecast maps with this case, and the dakotas have northerly surface winds and there's no sfc low in Oklahoma with this one