Chase Case #2

I'm gonna hold up in Norman for a while. The obvious bullseye attm is NW Kansas and along the KS/NE border...but I'm interested in the area from Lawton_Childress_Abilene_Wichita Falls. I'm going to sit on my hands a bit, take the gamble (because I'll need to leave before too long to make the northern target), and see what the SW OK/NW TX area has to offer by 18z.
 
Being from Minneapolis, I'm surprised I'm leaning towards the dryline in Texas. You tend to be biased towards your part of the country but here are my thoughts:

- The low should move into Nebraska perhaps setting up shop near the SD border near Yankton, SD... the problems here are limited moisture and instability.
- There are some warm 850 temps in Kansas. Those should warm and advect to the NE, which makes me feel like anything north of Kansas is going to be bust.
- Winds are not good south of there, but with the trough moving in, I'd expect these to increase, especially if the low to the north tries to strengthen, as it should. Moisture, instability look great along the dryline.
- My biggest concern with Nebraska/SD is that the 850 dews are really bad, and I'm not sure that with some dry air advecting in, if convergence alone will help to sustain enough moisture depth in this area.

I think with that I'd like to camp out in Childress,TX or Frederick, OK and keep my eyes peeled for anything within about 200 miles in Western Oklahoma or North/Northwest Texas along the dryline.

I don't want to get too far south though because those winds are going to kill me.
 
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I think I'm going to start in Oklahoma. I'm liking the surface winds better, although they aren't as strong as I would like. Also CAPE seems to be descent. If anything fires to the west I can head in that direction. I'm starting in Ponca City.

Edit: I'm really liking the dryline setting up in W. Ok. If something can fire off the dryline and make it's way into the juice I should be in position.
 
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I noticed alot of people are heading pretty far west. I'd be cautious because this data is at 12z, it is not at 12z for 0z or something. The storm system is well west of the region. 12z is only 6am remember. I mean I know this is for fun, but it may be helpful because that isn't really mentioned (not Chad's fault).
 
Michael O'Keeffe said:
I noticed alot of people are heading pretty far west. I'd be cautious because this data is at 12z, it is not at 12z for 0z or something. The storm system is well west of the region. 12z is only 6am remember. I mean I know this is for fun, but it may be helpful because that isn't really mentioned (not Chad's fault).
Click to expand...

The trof axis is still well to the west in the intermountain region, so the way the surface looks now might be indicitive of how it looks 12 hours later...the features likely won't move east much. The approaching trof should back the surface winds on the high plains. The only thing that's throwing me right now is the wacky 850 flow. I'm leaning toward the Texas Panhandle at this point, but not completely confident with that pick. I'll likely start in Guymon, OK and blast north or south after the 18z data gives me a better idea of where to go. Seems like most events with the trof axis sitting this far west are upslope and/or high plains events.

And 12z is 7am, not 6am ;)
 
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Being that i'm already in ICT, i'll probably hang here till the 18z analysis comes out. I'm going to have the mindset that i'll head north and west once the update comes out.
 
Scott Weberpal said:
The trof axis is still well to the west in the intermountain region, so the way the surface looks now might be indicitive of how it looks 12 hours later...the features likely won't move east much. The approaching trof should back the surface winds on the high plains. The only thing that's throwing me right now is the wacky 850 flow. I'm leaning toward the Texas Panhandle at this point, but not completely confident with that pick. I'll likely start in Guymon, OK and blast north or south after the 18z data gives me a better idea of where to go.

And 12z is 7am, not 6am ;)
Click to expand...

12z IS 6am, if you're on Central time. It corresponds to the timezone you are in.
 
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