Caribbean: TS Richard

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This storm has a 95% of NOT affecting the US (99.9 % not hitting FL), and yes, throw all the climatology out the window as every storm is different.

Sorry as I am being realistic and NOT negative.

298 days until the next big FL threat in 2011...

 

[Josh Morgerman]

After a lot of back and forth in my head, I decided to chase Richard. I was very conflicted about it, but it looks decent and I would hate to miss a good storm if it decides to surprise us. I don't expect more than a solid Cat 1-- maybe a 2-- but half the purpose of the trip is to case out Belize for future chases-- so even if the cyclone sucks, the trip will be worthwhile for that reason alone.

One concern: I'm connecting via San Salvador and I'm a bit worried about the connecting flight to BZE getting canceled. But, hey these are the risks that come with the territory. If I get turned back, I get turned back.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

After a lot of back and forth in my head, I decided to chase Richard...

Many folks in the hurricane chasing community are impressed with Josh's frequent "go" decisions and good work.

I wish you the best of luck and be sure to share with us the pro's and con's of chasing in these rather small (and potentially dangerous) countries.

I heard so many bad things about Mexico, but with Karl in Veracruz, Josh seemed to have no problems. What stopped me from going there was the unknown area as well as tickets from Miami over 1000 bucks.

Share with is not only the storm, but the "politics" or issues encoountered. PM me if you got anything to discuss.

Again, it appears to be one of your favorite "micro cane" storms, which have been common there (W Caribbean / Mexico) this year. Hopefully it will rapidly strengthen. It's 85 MPH right now (11 AM).

The good thing is that it appears the "pinpointed target' of landfall is south of Belize city, so it's a populated / resort area with roads and such, and you'll be on the right side of the storm. Belize is english speaking as well, despite it being Central America. The crappy thing is landfall may be near dark on Oct 24. The storm has a very small hurricane-forced wind envelope.

The hurricane chasing first place award for 2010 goes to Josh M!

The runner-ups are the folks who went to Bermuda in Sept for Igor.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

Many folks in the hurricane chasing community are impressed with Josh's frequent "go" decisions and good work.

I wish you the best of luck and be sure to share with us the pro's and con's of chasing in these rather small (and potentially dangerous) countries.

I heard so many bad things about Mexico, but with Karl in Veracruz, Josh seemed to have no problems. What stopped me from going there was the unknown area as well as tickets from Miami over 1000 bucks.

Share with is not only the storm, but the "politics" or issues encoountered. PM me if you got anything to discuss.

Again, it appears to be one of your favorite "micro cane" storms, which have been common there (W Caribbean / Mexico) this year. Hopefully it will rapidly strengthen. It's 85 MPH right now (11 AM).

The good thing is that it appears the "pinpointed target' of landfall is south of Belize city, so it's a populated / resort area with roads and such, and you'll be on the right side of the storm. Belize is english speaking as well, despite it being Central America. The crappy thing is landfall may be near dark on Oct 24. The storm has a very small hurricane-forced wind envelope.

The hurricane chasing first place award for 2010 goes to Josh M!

The runner-ups are the folks who went to Bermuda in Sept for Igor.

Chris, thanks for the really kind words-- I appreciate it!

But it looks like I've run into some hard luck on this chase. I arrived in San Salvador nice and early this morning, but the connection flight to Belize City was delayed due to mechanical troubles (nothing at all having to do with weather). The flight has been rescheduled for 2:35 pm local time-- another two and a half hours from now-- and Richard's center is only 55 mi from the city.

It's highly unlikely I'm going to make it in time. Assuming I don't, I'm just going to ask the airline for a full refund and head back to L.A.-- I'm not interested in going to Belize after the cyclone's passed. It's too bad, because if the flight had been on schedule, I would have gotten there with plenty of time to spare. And it looks like Belize City is going to get a direct hit, which would have been interesting to witness and shoot.

Oh, well. No use getting upset about it-- it's something that's 100% out of my control. Blah.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

... connection flight to Belize City was delayed due to mechanical troubles ... Oh, well. No use getting upset about it-- it's something that's 100% out of my control. Blah.

That really stinks for you, Josh. I would have bitten off my fingers (let alone my nails)

The actual eye of the system appears to be going quite a ways (50 KM) to the south of Belize City (about 35 miles or more). The hurricane wind core extends northward ONLY 15 miles from the center.

Above: Richard approaching Belize City / southward as of 2 PM EDT, Oct 24. I guess this is one of those "Charley" like pinhole eye systems.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Here are a couple of automatic stations which might show some interesting data soon:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IBELIZED2
And webcam at the same place: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/caye-caulker-weather-camera-weather-web-cam/

http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/78583/2010/10/24/DailyHistory.html

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICAYOMTN2

 

[James Reynolds]

Josh that sucks, sorry to hear that. It looks like a night time landfall if that's any consolation. It's a shame S America only gets a TC landfall once every 20 years or so otherwise I know you'd be all over that region too! Keep up the good work!

James.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Man i keep looking at the models and really wished Texas would get hit and Richard would restrengthen. Sigh, that doesn't look like its going to happen with the shear.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

That really stinks for you, Josh. I would have bitten off my fingers (let alone my nails)

The actual eye of the system appears to be going quite a ways (50 KM) to the south of Belize City (about 35 miles or more). The hurricane wind core extends northward ONLY 15 miles from the center.

Oh, yeah-- for sure. It drove me pretty insane waiting in the San Salvador airport all those hours, not knowing if I would or wouldn't make it to BZE. It would have just been better to know right off the bat that I'd never make it-- rather than obsessing about it for six hours before the flight was officially canceled. Ugh!

What drives me particularly nutty is that if my flight had taken off as scheduled, I would have landed with plenty of time to spare and only ~20 mi to drive to get perfectly situated. I know it was only a Cat 1, but hey-- I'm not too proud for a Cat 1. As you showed with that radar image, it had a sweet little structure and it was a nice cyclone. I'm pissed I missed it. I've been a bit depressed about it the last two days, but what can ya do?

I just have to man up and get over it!!

Josh that sucks, sorry to hear that. It looks like a night time landfall if that's any consolation. It's a shame S America only gets a TC landfall once every 20 years or so otherwise I know you'd be all over that region too! Keep up the good work!

James.

Hey, thanks, James-- I really appreciate that.