Quincy Vagell
EF4
After having relatively isolated targets for much of this week, Friday's severe weather threat looks to cover a wide area with many possible targets.
Synoptically, a ridge will be in place over the Southeast with a seasonably strong upper level jet ejecting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. The most apparent region for severe thunderstorm development and chase prospects will be on the southeast fringe of the stronger upper level winds, where they juxtapose with moderate to locally strong instability.
Plains targets:
This area is hard to pin down. Due to minimal convective inhibition, most model solutions initiate a band of convection by midday to early afternoon over a broad area. Mixed modes are probable, although the overall signal is fairly messy. Depending on convective evolution, you might have embedded supercells, or there could be fairly quick upscale growth. It's hard to pin down specific target areas at this time, but they should become more clear by morning. If convective trends dial back a bit, there a more robust severe threat, at least locally, could evolve. Another scenario is that early day convection over the Southern High Plains/Oklahoma/Kansas vicinity moves east and there is just enough recovery in the afternoon for isolated storm development in its wake. If this does occur, look for any outflow boundaries. My guess is that if this scenario does happen, you'd be most likely to look somewhere from the Texas Panhandle vicinity into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas, but that's just speculation. Another area to look may be on the southwestern fringe of early day convection, which might set up somewhere around the Texas South Plains. There's also a dryline forecast to be in place across West/Southwest Texas, but model solutions are varied with this feature. That area will be displaced from more favorable shear to the north and HRRR progs show virtually no SRH, outside of the storm-scale level. Some recent model runs have popped up the classic I-10 lone storm around 00z, but that seems like a risky play, especially given less than stellar wind profiles.
Midwest target:
I think as we get closer in, this appears to be the most intriguing target, assuming it's within driving range. Most convection allowing models show substantial destabilization along and south of a warm front, draped from Iowa into northern Illinois. Wind profiles show quite a bit of turning with height and hodographs will be largest in vicinity of the warm front. If convective initiation holds off until at least mid-afternoon, then you'd probably see supercell storm development in the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity with a few intense updrafts possible. The model consensus is for a relative minimum in severe potential across Missouri, but it's possible that the warm front lingers close enough that a few storms could affect northeastern Missouri. On the other hand, any storms ejecting from southeastern Kansas could move into Missouri as well.
Keep in mind that northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas are extremely wet and additional rainfall may exacerbate flooding issues here. Dirt roads are quite muddy over much of the area with many roads impassible, even including some paved roads. Keep this in mind if you plan on targeting that area.
Synoptically, a ridge will be in place over the Southeast with a seasonably strong upper level jet ejecting from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. The most apparent region for severe thunderstorm development and chase prospects will be on the southeast fringe of the stronger upper level winds, where they juxtapose with moderate to locally strong instability.
Plains targets:
This area is hard to pin down. Due to minimal convective inhibition, most model solutions initiate a band of convection by midday to early afternoon over a broad area. Mixed modes are probable, although the overall signal is fairly messy. Depending on convective evolution, you might have embedded supercells, or there could be fairly quick upscale growth. It's hard to pin down specific target areas at this time, but they should become more clear by morning. If convective trends dial back a bit, there a more robust severe threat, at least locally, could evolve. Another scenario is that early day convection over the Southern High Plains/Oklahoma/Kansas vicinity moves east and there is just enough recovery in the afternoon for isolated storm development in its wake. If this does occur, look for any outflow boundaries. My guess is that if this scenario does happen, you'd be most likely to look somewhere from the Texas Panhandle vicinity into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas, but that's just speculation. Another area to look may be on the southwestern fringe of early day convection, which might set up somewhere around the Texas South Plains. There's also a dryline forecast to be in place across West/Southwest Texas, but model solutions are varied with this feature. That area will be displaced from more favorable shear to the north and HRRR progs show virtually no SRH, outside of the storm-scale level. Some recent model runs have popped up the classic I-10 lone storm around 00z, but that seems like a risky play, especially given less than stellar wind profiles.
Midwest target:
I think as we get closer in, this appears to be the most intriguing target, assuming it's within driving range. Most convection allowing models show substantial destabilization along and south of a warm front, draped from Iowa into northern Illinois. Wind profiles show quite a bit of turning with height and hodographs will be largest in vicinity of the warm front. If convective initiation holds off until at least mid-afternoon, then you'd probably see supercell storm development in the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity with a few intense updrafts possible. The model consensus is for a relative minimum in severe potential across Missouri, but it's possible that the warm front lingers close enough that a few storms could affect northeastern Missouri. On the other hand, any storms ejecting from southeastern Kansas could move into Missouri as well.
Keep in mind that northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas are extremely wet and additional rainfall may exacerbate flooding issues here. Dirt roads are quite muddy over much of the area with many roads impassible, even including some paved roads. Keep this in mind if you plan on targeting that area.
