Josh Morgerman
EF4
I'm getting a slight tingly feeling about this one.
The models are slowly coming on board, and it's slooooooowly pulling together.
The models are slowly coming on board, and it's slooooooowly pulling together.
Caribbean: TS Richard
- Thread starter Stuart Robinson
- Start date
Josh Morgerman
EF4
It's a TD now, and I'm very much liking the NHC's track forecast. It suggests all sorts of interesting possibilities.
Dennis Dennison
Just as an addendum-so far the cut off low has not really been much of anything in AZ.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
RECON have just found surface winds of 35 Knots therefore TD19 will be reclassified as ...
### Tropical Storm Richard ###
### Tropical Storm Richard ###
jdrenken
EF0
URNT12 KNHC 211345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 21/13:27:20Z
B. 16 deg 19 min N
080 deg 29 min W
C. NA
D. 28 kt
E. 036 deg 93 nm
F. 130 deg 26 kt
G. 036 deg 93 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 431 m
J. 23 C / 429 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0319A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 025 / 36 NM FROM FL CNTR
Convection East Quad
Max SWS 37kts east quad 12:25:35Z
;
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 21/13:27:20Z
B. 16 deg 19 min N
080 deg 29 min W
C. NA
D. 28 kt
E. 036 deg 93 nm
F. 130 deg 26 kt
G. 036 deg 93 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 431 m
J. 23 C / 429 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0319A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 025 / 36 NM FROM FL CNTR
Convection East Quad
Max SWS 37kts east quad 12:25:35Z
;
cdcollura
EF5
Ahhh, Richard - Finally!
I am out of town (returning to FL on 10-25) so the fact that it's stalled in the Caribbean for a couple of days is a good thing.
The track appears to be very similar to Wilma in 2005, probably nicking the Yucatan on Monday (10-25).
This track is still quite a ways out, but after the Yucatan, assuming shear remains low enough, Florida becomes the main threat.
I am out of town (returning to FL on 10-25) so the fact that it's stalled in the Caribbean for a couple of days is a good thing.
The track appears to be very similar to Wilma in 2005, probably nicking the Yucatan on Monday (10-25).
This track is still quite a ways out, but after the Yucatan, assuming shear remains low enough, Florida becomes the main threat.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
I am now convinvced that richard will be a non starter for a US landfall.
The ridge building over the GOM will protect Florida from this system.
The ridge building over the GOM will protect Florida from this system.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Again and again for 2010. No new news here.
Looks now like a hurricane landfall in Belize around Monday or so.
What really bugs me is that a trough so easily passes OVER these systems and they do not move north.
Yet nearly every system in the Atlantic earlier this year was drawn to the north by troughs. I guess this must be the difference of the storm rouding the western side of a high when in the W Caribbean this year there simply is NO high there to go around?
Richard is in a very weak steering pattern anyway.
Except for those who intercepted Karl and Igor, 2010 was a real bummer. The tornado season (spring) rocked, though. Hurricanes were just a CCK tease.
Again and again for 2010. No new news here.
Looks now like a hurricane landfall in Belize around Monday or so.
What really bugs me is that a trough so easily passes OVER these systems and they do not move north.
Yet nearly every system in the Atlantic earlier this year was drawn to the north by troughs. I guess this must be the difference of the storm rouding the western side of a high when in the W Caribbean this year there simply is NO high there to go around?
Richard is in a very weak steering pattern anyway.
Except for those who intercepted Karl and Igor, 2010 was a real bummer. The tornado season (spring) rocked, though. Hurricanes were just a CCK tease.
Andrew Burnett
EF2
This site is showing a possibility of it making the Gulf again and stearing towards the US
There have been a couple storms with this pattern that have recovered to make Cat 1 or 2 and a US landfall. The esemble views show it even morso.
There have been a couple storms with this pattern that have recovered to make Cat 1 or 2 and a US landfall. The esemble views show it even morso.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
If the above model image comes to pass (80% certain at this point) then Richard will starve to death over the landmass of the Yucatan.
*IF* there any way that Richard can survive to make it back into the bay of Campeche. Then I feel that the old hurricane rule of thumb will apply.....
“Once in the bay of Campeche, always in the bay of Campeche”
*IF* there any way that Richard can survive to make it back into the bay of Campeche. Then I feel that the old hurricane rule of thumb will apply.....
“Once in the bay of Campeche, always in the bay of Campeche”
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Not sure I totally agree with that "rule". One of the USA's biggest hurricane catastrophes-- Audrey 1957-- was a Bay of Campeche cyclone. And in recent years, Bret 1999 came out of the Bay of Campeche to hit TX as a major.
That having been said, BoC cyclones tend not to threaten the USA very often, with Karl of last month being a good example. It stayed waaaaay down there-- and I agree with you that Richard probably will as well, if it even makes it there.
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Josh Morgerman
EF4
I'm not terribly impressed with Richard's appearance on IR and visible imagery this afternoon. It's a bit disappointing, because it looked like it was really getting ready to bomb out overnight and early this morning.
Andrew Burnett
EF2
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Climatology is useful, but in this case, the major models are pretty unanimous now in building a strong ridge that keeps the cyclone well S and away from FL.
October cyclones in the Caribbean tend to recurve sharply-- as shown in the climatology-- but not always. Notable exceptions in recent years would be Joan 1988 and Iris 2001-- powerful Cat 4s that moved due W (or even S-of-W) across the Caribbean.
October cyclones in the Caribbean tend to recurve sharply-- as shown in the climatology-- but not always. Notable exceptions in recent years would be Joan 1988 and Iris 2001-- powerful Cat 4s that moved due W (or even S-of-W) across the Caribbean.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Josh I agree,
Audrey 1957 went against the rule of thumb but recall that this was a June CAT4 storm. Something that we don't see these days (thankfully)
Audrey 1957 went against the rule of thumb but recall that this was a June CAT4 storm. Something that we don't see these days (thankfully)
