State of the Chase Season 2023

[JamesCaruso]

Looking more and more like a late May / early June chase (NW flow and Denver cyclones).

I don’t mind if it ends up being a late May / early June chase, but I *hate* NW flow. Yes it’s better than no flow, but it is not going to produce much of any of the types of events for which we go out there in the first place…

 

[Andy Berrington]

Is no one paying attention to next week, which looks to hold several days of potential in the High Plains?

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, a couple of days next week look interesting, depending on a lot of variables, but I'm referring to those chasers who make an annual trek into the Plains and have to decide when the overall pattern will support svr. wx for more than a day or two.

 

[Joerg Kudella]

We always go for the 2nd and 3rd week of May as they are supposed to deliver the highest probabilities for Tornados statistically. Also, we need to plan our chasecations way ahead and don’t have the luxury of flying in when it looks right. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn‘t but there is always something good happening, like Morton last year. However, this year looks particularly bad for the first week and we will try every single BBQ joint in South Texas instead.

 

[Warren Faidley]

So I've formulated a chase plan forecast based on the latest model runs today and area forecast discussions. Still lots of things to work out regarding Wednesday through Friday's svr threat (possibly even Tuesday). I do believe there will be some type of tornado potential on one or more of those days, including a threat further west than currently forecast by the GFS's stingy RH values. I believe the evolution of the upper level low will be most important for a multi-day event. It's currently forecast to take on a negative tilt on Wednesday as it nears the Four Corners region. This cannot be ignored as a potential, higher-ended, classic west Texas chase if everything gels together just right. Targeting E-NM/W-TX dryline on Wednesday, then moving east or NE on Thr./Fri. Ignoring the anemic upper support after Friday, the models do agree on a monsoon type surge of RH values and -6'ish LI's over the weekend in MAF region, offering a lightning and maybe dust storm chase. This may buy enough time to allow the upper level flow to return.

 

[Jeff House]

Short-term events going into Mother's Day weekend could cause PDS family event issues. @JamesCaruso your legendary chart comes to mind. Plains chasers can get some days in before the Day. However this week is not a candidate for travel.

Next week ridge over the Rockies should last 7-10 days, not the end of the World. Plus an event or two will probably sneak in there.

Nothing wrong with the long-range charts after May 20. As discussed, they can't really be trusted fully. Therefore I don't get excited about perfect southwest flow, or down about a poor forecast (though it's nice to avoid one). Lots of normal temps and heights. Works in late May.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Short-term events going into Mother's Day weekend could cause PDS family event issues. @JamesCaruso your legendary chart comes to mind.

Thanks Jeff, I’m going to have to find that and re-post it! Lest anyone get too excited thinking you are talking about a PDS severe event - PDS in this case stands for Particularly *Difficult* Situation in deciding between a chase and a family event

I was supposed to head out on 5/20. I was thinking of also heading out for a few days this week and returning in time for Mother’s Day, but decided it was not worth it, especially with some new work obligations that popped up and required me to be in Boston for a day or two.

Already pushed my main trip from 5/20 to 5/21 to accommodate my son’s work schedule. I may push to 5/22, just to have the weekend at home. I don’t want to rush out to the Plains for nothing. I will make the final call, and travel reservations, around Fri/Sat this week. I’ll have to base the decision on a 10-day model, which I know is not ideal, but should still give a sense for whether there is a reason to get out there sooner than later.

I used to wait to make these decisions until just 3-5 days before, but I‘m a little more worried about finding last minute plane tickets now that it is two of us traveling instead of just me. Air travel seems more difficult than ever; for example, for work this week I couldn’t even find room on either of two evening American Airlines flights home from Boston to Philadelphia on a *Wednesday*! Also worried about rental cars, but hopefully that situation of the last couple years has improved by now…

 

[Jason N]

So I've formulated a chase plan forecast based on the latest model runs today and area forecast discussions. Still lots of things to work out regarding Wednesday through Friday's svr threat (possibly even Tuesday). I do believe there will be some type of tornado potential on one or more of those days, including a threat further west than currently forecast by the GFS's stingy RH values. I believe the evolution of the upper level low will be most important for a multi-day event. It's currently forecast to take on a negative tilt on Wednesday as it nears the Four Corners region. This cannot be ignored as a potential, higher-ended, classic west Texas chase if everything gels together just right. Targeting E-NM/W-TX dryline on Wednesday, then moving east or NE on Thr./Fri. Ignoring the anemic upper support after Friday, the models do agree on a monsoon type surge of RH values and -6'ish LI's over the weekend in MAF region, offering a lightning and maybe dust storm chase. This may buy enough time to allow the upper level flow to return.

Looks like the CO/KS I-34 is gonna be the place to hang out today and KS tomorrow, could be fun, and probably dusty. good luck if you're out there!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Nope, blew off this chase sequence. I have no doubt there will be a few worthy landspouts and tornadoes over the next two days, but could not justify my seasonal deployment with a dud week (+) after this event. I'm also concerned about the inevitable circus maximus that will accompany these two chase days, given the rarity of Plains chasing weather this spring.

Interestingly, after this event, the forecast calls for a monsoon-like pattern in the western regions. Some models even have the flow reaching Arizona. This might assist in keeping the DL further west if the pattern eventually changes.

My current plan is to wait it out and chase a little later this year.

 

[Jason N]

That's not a bad plan. Referring back to our discussion a year ago or so I think, when you posted the Mad Max image. (Welcome to Tornado-Dome), seems very much like a higher probability of an active hoard. The way the current runs are looking at it, it evolves into a convective mess pretty fast, but a nice rain event that they need anyway for the next few days.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Chose work over chasing this week. The setups ended up being better than I expected, so I am kind of regretting it now. But I still have my main chase vacation to look forward to. I didn’t think this week was worth a quick back and forth trip, but now I think it might have been. But work responsibilities beckoned, so I was biased toward finding reasons NOT to chase this setup…

 

[Jason N]

dontcha hate it when you're tossing up decisions like, placing responsibilities against, Ooooo I wanna go!, "nahh doesn't look great, I feel good"..."wait, now it does! dammit!", we've all been there James. and to that point, I have noticed this a lot about the SPC, a day 3 prog starts Marg, that turns slight, that turns enhanced from days 3 to 1 , or a continued slight day turns Enhanced, and then Mod on a 1630 update. Heck I've personally seen, and I am sure many here have as well, a Marginal turn MOD from day 2 to 1, I even saved a few screen shots of this happening before. It's not often, but it happens. I bet we could start a room of Day 3 to 1 comparisons just to look at the changes lol. I think we all get that data changes, new stuff comes in etc., so Jeff Duda can't come running in to tell us about that, ...but it does point out that if something on day 3 starts as Slight, Odds May favor that it might upgrade by day 1? I dont know exactly how often that happens. or even the opposite, when a day 3 slight area gets downgraded, I have seen that on occasion as well, and that's the model to near real-time analysis stuff surely impacting some of that.

 

[ScottCurry]

I'm no longer worried about a lack of moisture this season. It's been raining for 36 hours straight at my house. Nearly 4" of rain.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

It's been a reasonably active May for severe weather so far with >110 reports every day from the 5th through yesterday. The really photogenic, top-notch chase tornadoes have been somewhat lacking (although some of yesterday's were decent), but they'll always be relatively rare since so much has to go right.

Last few CFS runs are suggestive that there should be multiple chase opportunities from Memorial Day weekend through the first 10 days of June, although of course timing, location and ceiling are all extremely nebulous at this range.

 

[Marc Remillard]

It's been a reasonably active May for severe weather so far with >110 reports every day from the 5th through yesterday. The really photogenic, top-notch chase tornadoes have been somewhat lacking (although some of yesterday's were decent), but they'll always be relatively rare since so much has to go right.

Last few CFS runs are suggestive that there should be multiple chase opportunities from Memorial Day weekend through the first 10 days of June, although of course timing, location and ceiling are all extremely nebulous at this range.

It has been downtrending though. We'll see. That being said, GFS suggests some weak flow at the end of its run.