State of the Chase Season 2023

[Jason N]

I just realized that if a real organized late season pattern does actually emerge, ugh I can just feel the youtube/twitter chaser hoard beginning to rachet up like the trolls in the hobbit when the one hobbit drops a bucket down a well.
crap

 

[Kem Poyner]

Hopefully the trolls used up their vacation days on something else. This troll has been waiting in Arizona hoping a late show is in the cards.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Just landed back in Philadelphia (in fact, still waiting for bags an hour after touchdown, at what has to be the worst baggage claim in the United States - but I digress…)

So incredibly frustrating that, for the first time after 25 years of chasing, I had the ability to work remotely and be on the Plains for 24 days through June 15th, and here I am coming home at barely the halfway point because the pattern sucks so bad. Yeah it may get active next Friday/Saturday but I’m not going to sit here working in a hotel room for a week burning cash just in the hope that I squeak in a couple more days before the 15th (when my son has to get back this week anyway - it’s nowhere near as much fun chasing alone).

I burned most of my PTO days anyway chasing marginal setups, so there goes the idea of spreading the same number of PTO days over a longer period of time to get the “big” days - tough strategy to execute when there are no big days…

Theoretically I could go back out Thursday night if it’s looking good, but at this point I’m so irritated (maybe more so because I’m still waiting for my bags as I write this!) that I feel like saying “screw this!” I’ll regain my enthusiasm by next year, but probably not by next week.

 

[Jeff Wright]

June appears much more favorable for severe over a broad area. Some really strong indications of better flow and an active sub-tropical jet look good for some nice late spring and early summer chasing activities.
View attachment 23950

Shhh.. Schrödinger will hear you…check no more graphs or you’ll hex it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Considering a re-deployment for the middle of next week if the models hold-up. Lots of monkey wrenches this time of year, including cap strength, but it would appear there should be some good chasing after the 12th, or so. Any set-up w/o cold, dense outflows, lack of real drylines and non-straight hodos would be a welcomed change!

 

[Jeff House]

Below normal heights across the Plains and Midwest is favorable in June. Pesky East trough would be trouble in May. In June an East trough does not necessary impact the Plains. One can drill down and see 500 mb flow forecast, but it keeps jumping around the Plains or Midwest. At this point, extended forecast, we just want to see flow. Ditto 850 mb progs.

Canada block weakening should allow the forecast modest flow. Typhoon Mawar gets some credit for the Pacific jet extension. Also cleared the West Pacific deck so the MJO could pulse again out of the Indian Ocean. Technical details aside, I just want to give the models a sanity check. Indeed reasons exist upstream, and globally, for the mid-June progs.

As noted, later this week could see a couple days in the Plains or Midwest. Southern High Plains? Perhaps starting Thu/Fri. Appears to be another system good for a couple days early to middle of next week June 11-14. That one keeps shifting in time and space. The above does not include mesoscale accidents sooner and/or between systems.

A couple days ago (Saturday) all of next week (June 11+) looked like a Retro southwest flow June set-up. Glad I did not have time to post, ha.

Now it appears systems dive through the northern stream in chunks, Plains to Midwest, week of June 11. Also have the southern stream still going. Forecast will be challenging. Warren's post came in as I'm typing. Yes, the cap will be there more next week. By June 14 a flat Texas ridge is forecast, but with still below normal heights north of it. Fortunately, a little more flow is also forecast by June 12.

 

[Bobby Little]

it would appear there should be some good chasing after the 12th, or so. Any set-up w/o cold, dense outflows, lack of real drylines and non-straight hodos would be a welcomed change!

I hope so! Heading west after Chicago Blues Fest for a couple weeks again after 2 disappointing earlier chases in april/may ( wrong cells..wrong timing).

 

[James K]

This feels like some weird combination of spring .. and summer monsoon season here in CO.
No complaints on the rain (other than I need it to dry out a bit to do some gardening)
And no severe, but I have had a few little lightning shows to watch.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I have the potential ability to go back out from this weekend through next Wednesday, but I am not seeing anything at all compelling in the most recent GFS or Euro runs from Monday night. On Sunday night (can’t remember if it was 0Z or 06Z) there was a beautiful GFS run for next Tuesday with a negative tilt trough and a sharp dryline in KS, but that was gone with yesterday’s 12Z run. The current runs do not look good. Yeah there will probably be some chase opportunities and conditions should be much better than they are right now, so if you haven’t been out yet I would definitely go and get what I could. Things will be better than this week we are in, but not much better than the two weeks I was already out there (5/22-6/2). I am not seeing anything on the current runs that would draw me back out for a second trip, but I will keep watching.

 

[Jason N]

I am sure most of you are tracking the same stuff, but I went back 8 model runs focusing on the 12th thru 16th using 12Z&00Z only (I have read information on 06/18Z GFS runs being less skillful or useful over the 12/00Z runs when going out to 5days and beyond due less RAOB inclusion? yes/no/maybe so?). Anyway, the 12/00Z runs have in my eyes have been more consistent in targeting the SCP (variations in intensity and scope of coverage aside across the SRN plains.

based on what I am seeing, it appears to me at least that there is an increased focusing mechanism for convergence/diffluence from 850/500 from the 12th to 16th extending from West TX starting on the 12th, and gradually moving eastward to the areas from Tulsa down through the Red River down to Dallas and into WRN Ark with a decent dryline and theta buldge from the 13th, and more especially the 14th and 15th.

I think it's fair to say, like Warren/Jeff House said, what the Cap will do or not over some areas and the more Microscale parameters that are way too far off to even worry about, but I still feel pretty confident in this period. from 12-16 that there are going to be some opportunities before getting shut off again. How extensive or not, we need another 3 days to really begin to get to that. I'll make my final decision to go or not tomorrow when the 12Z comes out just to see if its continuing to maintain the target areas and general flow patterns about the same.

After the 16th, if you trust the GEFS/CFS, it looks like the pattern shifts northward and west a bit more. If I had more money and time, I'd stick it out!.. but alas, this 5 day window will happen or not. til we meet again next year! lol

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well @JamesCaruso, today's 12Z GFS came in considerably more interesting for several days next week. However, it's a bit frustrating that, after watching the 6/10-17 period for several hundred hours now on the CFS, with its relative consistency for a signal in that timeframe prompting me to ask for next week off a week ago, we're still in the range of knowing little more than "there should be some degree of potential, somewhere in the central U.S."

 

[Mikayla Norris]

I've gone ahead and asked my supervisors about taking a few days off next week, with the caveat being I'm not sure which ones yet. They said no worries, just let them know when I know. I'm convinced I have the single most flexible and understanding leadership in the entire Air Force. Being stationed at a small, slow paced, training base doesn't hurt either I suppose. Hopefully next week will pan out like the models are suggesting though. I'm eligible for a PCS soon, so I'm not sure if I'll still be living on the Plains next season.

 

[Jason N]

good to see another AF weather nerd in here. Altus is in a great spot! I mean, sure there are other good spots to, but that's a great regional place to be.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Finally seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in eastern/southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16.

 

[Jason N]

I'll be based out of Wichita starting Saturday evening and I concur with your thoughts. albeit I feel there has been more than a smidge of consistency for the last 3 days at least up to this morning from 12/00Z runs anyway, but my previous post on this explains it. I was thinking a moment ago, the SPC should be putting 15% on Day 7 and 8 lol... then I thought, what does it take for SPC to actually paint an area that far in advance, but that's my personal confidence (which I hope doesn't land on its face!) on there being organized or isolated "something" to chase. The CAP is gonna be something to watch but I agree that S & SE KS plays an interesting place to look at.