State of the Chase Season 2022

[Warren Faidley]

I'm not too worried. Forecasting for the second week of May through the first week of June is based on a lot more than April-sized systems. In fact, those dynamic set-ups can ruin an entire week this time of year by sending the RH to the Yucatan. The GFS and ECMWF are in a battle royal concerning the situation for next week. The GFS wants to set-up a pattern that nukes the RH, while the ECMWF keeps it west.

 

[JamesCaruso]

My two-week chase vacation does not start until May 21. Because it is set without flexibility, I am not going to bother torturing myself with long-range prognostications. I don’t know how reliable any of it is. I know for sure operational models aren’t worth much beyond 7-10 days. Look how active this two-week period we are in is turning out to be, right on the heels of so many here lamenting the state of the season.

The one thing that does concern me is seeing a lot of early activity. I always worry that means the season will also shut down early.I can’t remember there ever being a sustained six good weeks in a row; it seems there is a limit to how many good weeks can occur. Maybe it’s just anecdotal, maybe it’s just law of averages and reversion to the mean… Perhaps no meteorological or climatological basis whatsoever… Although I do remember @Jeff Duda posting in one bad chase year about how many troughs had come out early in the year before the moisture and instability were available, such that the atmosphere had almost exhausted itself of energy before the traditional season. I know I am probably mischaracterizing this and apologies in advance for doing so, but I know Jeff will correct me if that’s the case.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Although I do remember @Jeff Duda posting in one bad chase year about how many troughs had come out early in the year before the moisture and instability were available, such that the atmosphere had almost exhausted itself of energy before the traditional season. I know I am probably mischaracterizing this and apologies in advance for doing so, but I know Jeff will correct me if that’s the case.

Nope. That's a great paraphrasing of what I have said, and I have been noting that this year, too. I get nervous when we see a synoptically active April like we've had in 2022 because it is almost always followed by a dead May pattern where we are down to mesoscale setups only.

I hope I'm wrong about that, but recent past has not suggested it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If we can keep the RH in place and avoid mega-capping, the NCEP Ensembles are not looking too bad as a trending guide.

All NCEP Ensemble Forecast Times: 500 mb Mean Z: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory

psl.noaa.gov

 

[JamesCaruso]

Agree that looks pretty good Warren, but that just makes me even more nervous, given that it runs through the 19th. Makes it even more likely that by the time I get out there on the 21st it’s all over…

 

[Jeff House]

I can remember years that were active from the start, and remained so for our trip in late May. We are not going to talk about other scenarios, lol!

Next week trough looks like some good opportunity. Carolina low has implications, could giveth or taketh. Ideally it stays east of the Apps, resulting in a slow gradual Rockies to Plains trough, and many days in a row. We don't want that drifting into the Tenn Valley with a teardrop ridge over the Plains. (Actually that would be milder wx here.)

My chase window is a little later; so, I'm not too concerned about next week. However I do want to keep the line moving as the 2015 Royals said. No gumming up the works please. At any rate, the troughs could come one, two rather than strung out 5-6 days straight. The one, two option opens new opportunity into the following week.

Some non-model good news is a developing Pacific jet extension. We look for it to poke across and then retract, another Rockies trough. MJO related convection could be on a good trajectory too, percolating Indian Ocean heading to the Maritime Continent.

Bottom line: We all know a bird in the hand. If next week looks good, we go. If gummed up, we just hold off another week.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The ECMWF, Canadian, and American ensembles all predict pentaday average western US troughing going out at least through day 10, with only a return towards neutral (zonal) flow or pattern beyond. However, I suspect at least some of that day-12-16 zonal pattern is model climatology, not just an indication of a zonal pattern through mid-month.

 

[Andrew Butler]

I am not in general a very optimistic person so it's easy to get down on what is upcoming, but the Euro May 7- June 7 weeklies just out are as depressing as it gets unless you are on the very northern plains. We're blocked up again with a retrograding trough next week, jet jumping into Canada, and all kinds of nuke proof temps at midlevels and basically instant summer for everyone a la the playbook of the last several years. I get PTSD.

That doesn't mean there won't be opportunities or the pattern can't change but woof... At least it's finally warming up up here.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Unfortunately, what the larger-scale models don't show are the mesoscale "sneak attacks" that make up some of May's classic events -- if even a few necessary ingredients are present or nearby. If *quality* RH moves far enough west, there is the possibility of a multiple-day, sloshing dryline event sometime after Monday -- somewhere from MAF to AMA. I've seen these potential set-ups go bust or bonkers in just a few model runs, so it's not a slam dunk. (Disclaimer).

With a longwave trough just to the west (GFS model image = Tuesday at 21z), favorably-timed shortwaves could get the show going. The mid-May+ CAP and LCL's are always an issue out west, but the WTT (Western Texas Triangle) can do some jiggy things this time of year.

In fact, this set-up has the faint aroma of dryline magic -- and any long-shot, slight risk might keep the crowds down.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I am not in general a very optimistic person so it's easy to get down on what is upcoming, but the Euro May 7- June 7 weeklies just out are as depressing as it gets unless you are on the very northern plains. We're blocked up again with a retrograding trough next week, jet jumping into Canada, and all kinds of nuke proof temps at midlevels and basically instant summer for everyone a la the playbook of the last several years. I get PTSD.

That doesn't mean there won't be opportunities or the pattern can't change but woof... At least it's finally warming up up here.

I’m no expert on long-range models or forecasting… I try not to pay too much attention to it, and I don’t invest a lot of time learning about it, because I’m not that interested in it, and it doesn’t have much relevance to me, given my fixed chase vacation schedule. BUT I’m just not sure these 30-day temp and precip anomalies are very meaningful… It’s an average for a 30-day period… Doesn’t mean there couldn’t be two great weeks in there, and then two other weeks pull down the average… You can still have a great isolated supercell and it won’t result in rainfall over a large area that produces above-average precip… If the average male life expectancy is 78, it doesn’t mean every man dies at 78… Neither does a below average month mean that every day and week during the month sucks… And I’m just talking here about how to *interpret* the graphic - who knows how accurate the underlying model even is at that range…

Go back a bit in this thread and see how down some people were just a few weeks ago, and then reconcile that to some of the great events these last couple of weeks…

 

[Warren Faidley]

Here we go.... From LBB:

A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME SLOSHING DRYLINE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THE HOLDING IN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONGER SHORT WAVE,
A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS OF THESE MINOR FEATURES ARE TOO FAR
OUT TO RESOLVE ON THIS TIME SCALE. THESE MINOR DISTURBANCES COMBINED
WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE MAY CREATE CHANCES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER.

 

[Brett Roberts]

The period starting this past Fri (4/29) and extending through at least next Sun (5/8) or so looks to be easily the most active for the core of the S/C Plains since at least May 2019, and also the most active for early May since at least 2015. Both of those periods featured impressive patterns that were marred by frequent early CI and general "messiness." This upcoming week may have a bit of that issue on some days, but in general, it appears capping is the bigger concern -- at least WRT widespread, "up and down the dryline" events. For chasers, that's obviously the better problem to have of the two.

To me, the ceiling for 4/29-5/10 is a very memorable stretch that would be reminiscent of the "good ol' days" of the 1990s and 2000s. Of course, the devil is in the details each day, and I'm not saying that outcome is likely. But it is almost hard to believe my eyes as I scroll through the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles the past couple days -- these progs do not look like the S/C Plains we've come to know over many recent spring seasons!

This... did not age well. The 4/29-5/4 period was certainly active and even productive for chasers by early season standards, but what appeared an equal or better stretch this weekend into early next week via ensemble consensus went up in flames. Just like that, the preseason analog suggestions of "active early, ridgey and dry for peak season" look all too plausible again.

I guess there are two silver linings: (a) there were some legitimate quality events (4/29 and 5/4) that would've been top 2-3 days of the season in many recent years; and (b) there was some partial drought relief over areas from C/E OK and KS into NE. Overall, the period from mid March to early May was relatively active and probably qualifies as an above-average opening to chase season by most standards... as long as you were willing to venture pretty far E and/or S within the core alley (IA, I-35 corridor of OK/KS, and TX). This is at least better than some years like 2006, 2009, and 2017, when synoptically favorable patterns were biased early but generally unproductive for event quality.

Resetting expectations looking forward, it appears we're basically stuck waiting and hoping for a pattern recovery in the period beyond D10. Drought is still going to be a major problem up and down the High Plains, including the chase-ruining dust problem highlighted on 4/22. It looks like our best bet will be any resurgent favorable pattern between late May and late June, and that events near the I-35 corridor may continue to be preferred if you're looking for tornado-friendly LCLs.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

This... did not age well. The 4/29-5/4 period was certainly active and even productive for chasers by early season standards, but what appeared an equal or better stretch this weekend into early next week via ensemble consensus went up in flames. Just like that, the preseason analog suggestions of "active early, ridgey and dry for peak season" look all too plausible again.

I guess there are two silver linings: (a) there were some legitimate quality events (4/29 and 5/4) that would've been top 2-3 days of the season in many recent years; and (b) there was some partial drought relief over areas from C/E OK and KS into NE. Overall, the period from mid March to early May was relatively active and probably qualifies as an above-average opening to chase season by most standards... as long as you were willing to venture pretty far E and/or S within the core alley (IA, I-35 corridor of OK/KS, and TX). This is at least better than some years like 2006, 2009, and 2017, when synoptically favorable patterns were biased early but generally unproductive for event quality.

Resetting expectations looking forward, it appears we're basically stuck waiting and hoping for a pattern recovery in the period beyond D10. Drought is still going to be a major problem up and down the High Plains, including the chase-ruining dust problem highlighted on 4/22. It looks like our best bet will be any resurgent favorable pattern between late May and late June, and that events near the I-35 corridor may continue to be preferred if you're looking for tornado-friendly LCLs.

We can thank the previous trough cutting off and retrograding early next week for that...a ridge gets squashed in between and the next trough can't eject across the Plains properly, instead flattening out and going over the top.

 

[adlyons]

Still seeing a general ensemble signal for low-amplitude zonal/southwesterly flow after this slower period through the next week to 10 days. We have already started to see the tor average dip and I expect that trend to continue. The good news, the gulf is very warm and pretty wide open. I expect we will have some northwesterly flow limit the moisture across the Plains, but I doubt we see any clearing with the jet energy focused much higher in latitude. We may be tending more towards mesoscale dominated setups in the coming weeks but uncertainty with this whole pattern is still very high. My Chasecation starts the 13th, but ive got family business in KC. That may not bee too much of an issue given the current GFS, but hoping after the 19th things pick back up for a bit.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

CFS doesn't look half bad for the week after next (roughly May 20th-27th). Not much to go on, but better than nothing. Now just gotta hope it stays consistent.

Edit: Of course, the next run that comes in after I post totally flips and replaces that juicy trough with a western ridge and giant Great Lakes trough that sits there for days. I give up.