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- Apr 13, 2009
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New CPC outlook doesn't look good for May either.
State of the Chase Season 2022
- Thread starter adlyons
- Start date
Andrew Butler
EF1
The same tired old playbook of the last several years. High latitude blocking, which doesn't make an appearance all winter, decides to show up in April/May, after a promising beginning to the season. It's a broken record and extremely frustrating. Here's to summer on the northern plains I guess... As bad as it looked a couple days ago, it looks worse today.
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adlyons
EF2
Well, a quick glance so far, March did perform rather well as I had mentioned. April perhaps a bit quieter but with our count still above average, that seems to track decently well. As others have shown, the upper pattern looks to become a bit less favorable for the next week or 2. if the projections about the upper pattern for May do develop, I suspect our average will dip. Weve been a bit busy here at SPC so haven't had a ton of time to look at everything yet. haha
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Not too concerned ATM. First week in May is looking boring, but some hope afterwards for return of upper-level flow and RH return to the Southern Plains per NCEP modeling. Big question will be 700mb temps. and dryline quality / placement given the bone-dry soil out west, with little hope of recovery between now and then. NWS long-range forecast discussions written by local experts are my go to reading ATM.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Recent models runs are still suggesting (and agreeing somewhat) of a potentially active spring pattern for the Southern Plains. Late this week is an obvious forecast. Looks like some form of favorable western influence (as opposed to a ridge or zonal flow) will commence again after the May 6th. time frame. (Images below). One interesting note, this initial pattern looks eerily similar to 2020 when systems heading right for the Plains then decided to fart-out and take an abrupt turn north. We will see!
e.
e.Looks like early next week could bring some decent days for the southern plains. The SPC is bullish on a day 5 threat for west TX and a day 6 threat for northern TX into eastern OK. Guidance also has a pretty potent shortwave in the Rockies next Tue/Wed with plenty of moisture to work with, although the GFS disagrees with the CMC/Euro on how long it’ll stick around. It’ll be interesting to see what we can get out of this time frame.
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Jason N
EF4
I do not doubt you being busy in the least.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Yes, despite a less than ideal large-scale pattern (mainly due to the persistent -NAO), model indications and the SPC 4-8 actually look seasonably active at the end of April and start of May, which has not often been the case for about a decade now.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
For what it's worth, the CFS is also picking up on the second week of May. It could of course, all go to hell in the next run, but that's chasing.
adlyons
EF2
Theres an intriguing signal coming out of the weekly and ensemble guidance after week 2 of some potentially more favorable troughing like Warren has pointed out. Theres a lot of uncertainty with these lower amplitude flow regimes. The ensembles could be just smoothing out northwest flow and the occasional trough, but the agreement from guidance seems positive. Im cautiously optimistic we may develop sustained low-amplitude southwesterly flow over much of the Plains through late May and possibly early June. That would really make some chase opportunities possible without the bigger gulf clearing events that you see with higher amplitude flow. Now there's some other issues with that like warm 500/700 temps, but Ill chance that for multi day dryline chasing any day of the week. It probably wont be overly productive on storms/tornadoes either, but they could be quite chaseable. Heres hoping!
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Last night 4/29 Augusta/Andover is a reminder that no matter how pessimistic you are about the overall meteorological trends of the season, you can have a great chase, even a career day, that puts the season at or near the top of your personal list…
4/29/22 EVENT: NE/OK/KS
Long ways out but given latest Model Guidance and climatology I am concerned about this day. Nice negative tilt trough progged to eject out of the rockies and into the southern/central plains Friday. The difference I see with this system vs the past few systems is timing. The timing right now in...
stormtrack.org
Andrew Butler
EF1
Multiple days of solid potential for the southern plains chasers.
We will sit up north and continue to freeze and live vicariously through you.
Large scale patterns still aren't ideal and long range outlooks are still somewhat depressing but enjoy this window of opportunity.
We will sit up north and continue to freeze and live vicariously through you.
Large scale patterns still aren't ideal and long range outlooks are still somewhat depressing but enjoy this window of opportunity.
Jeremy Gilchrist
EF0
I am in AMA now waiting. Hoping for some motherships this afternoon/evening. Obviously tomorrow we will be in OK.
Brett Roberts
EF5
The period starting this past Fri (4/29) and extending through at least next Sun (5/8) or so looks to be easily the most active for the core of the S/C Plains since at least May 2019, and also the most active for early May since at least 2015. Both of those periods featured impressive patterns that were marred by frequent early CI and general "messiness." This upcoming week may have a bit of that issue on some days, but in general, it appears capping is the bigger concern -- at least WRT widespread, "up and down the dryline" events. For chasers, that's obviously the better problem to have of the two.
To me, the ceiling for 4/29-5/10 is a very memorable stretch that would be reminiscent of the "good ol' days" of the 1990s and 2000s. Of course, the devil is in the details each day, and I'm not saying that outcome is likely. But it is almost hard to believe my eyes as I scroll through the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles the past couple days -- these progs do not look like the S/C Plains we've come to know over many recent spring seasons!
To me, the ceiling for 4/29-5/10 is a very memorable stretch that would be reminiscent of the "good ol' days" of the 1990s and 2000s. Of course, the devil is in the details each day, and I'm not saying that outcome is likely. But it is almost hard to believe my eyes as I scroll through the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles the past couple days -- these progs do not look like the S/C Plains we've come to know over many recent spring seasons!
Cameron L.
EF0
With the next couple of weeks looking active, I'm looking towards 2nd-half of May (my chasecation is last week of May). Currently seeing signs that 2nd half of May could be stuck in ridging (Based on GEFS). EPS and GEPS seem to be agreeing as well. While the EPS and GEPS don't go as far out as the GEFS does, they show riding at the end of their runs.
Chicklets seem to show a cool-off in activity around the same timeframe as well (with an increased activity in June). Obviously, they're not a great marker, but interesting to see the models lining up for the 2nd half.
This all being said, I'm still new at long-range forecasting; I've likely missed important details. I would love to hear others thoughts on the matter.
Chicklets seem to show a cool-off in activity around the same timeframe as well (with an increased activity in June). Obviously, they're not a great marker, but interesting to see the models lining up for the 2nd half.
This all being said, I'm still new at long-range forecasting; I've likely missed important details. I would love to hear others thoughts on the matter.
