State of the Chase Season: 2017 Edition

[Tim Paitz]

Not that we need to be reminded of this, but this week seems to be yet another example of why not to get too depressed or excited about long-range outlooks. I am only looking at SPC, not at data (since my chase trip is still almost three weeks away), but it seems that what was just a few days ago considered to be a dead week now has three consecutive days (including today) of potential supercells in prime chase regions, while the day that previously looked the best of the week (Wednesday) now has the potential to be screwed up by morning convection...


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The NAM3km has been showing a couple of little bow echoes in the TX Panhandle Wednesday morning for a while now. The latest NAM 3km shows a bow echo going right across the Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma early Wednesday morning. Wednesday's pretty much a bust.

 

[Jeff House]

Wednesday may be a forecaster's challenge, but it is not at all a bust. Target Area has a thread for those who wish to opine.

Next week May 14-20 looks good for a chaser. Monday through Wednesday could feature 1-2 sleeper days. High CAPE is forecast. Short-wave ridging and a cap may spell 00Z action, but sometimes it's worth the wait. Main event still looks closer to the end of next week, but I would want to be out there all week. Remember May 22-26 last year? Sleeper days far outperformed the sloppy unidirectional aloft main event.

Following week May 21-27 still looks good even in the wake of anything May 18-20. Most ensembles and weeklies continue West troughing. Some clusters have the West trough extending into the Plains. One can work with either. Lower heights over the Plains offers a weaker cap and maybe more zonal jet stream (vs closed low). West only trough is of course classic southwest flow aloft.

Non-model reasoning includes an easterly wind push in the tropical Pacific. Easterlies push back El Nino SST influence, and promote a more bullish pattern for chasers.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I agree with Jeff. I like finally seeing some signs of high CAPE on the dryline. If you have that, all you need to see in the upper levels in May is just some flow at or above 30 knots. No big ejecting trough necessary, just something spreading some W to SW flow overtop of that moisture.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm going to do my Forrest Gump impersonation. "The 12Z CFS is a dream. And that's all I got to say about that."

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, I went all in on that (actually did so this morning before the run came out, must have had a feeling ;-) ) and put in my vacation request for May 26-June 1. Can't do longer because other people had already requested time off around those weeks.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

I'm going to do my Forrest Gump impersonation. "The 12Z CFS is a dream. And that's all I got to say about that."

Yup. Whole lot better than yesterday's! Now all we need is consistency.

 

[Tim Paitz]

Interesting how New Mexico's had the most tornadoes so far this month. XD

Then again, there were dewpoints in the upper 50's and lower 60's in eastern NM with 40 kt shear. In the High Plains that's good enough for tornadoes. There were several in the state today and one yesterday.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well, I went all in on that (actually did so this morning before the run came out, must have had a feeling ;-) ) and put in my vacation request for May 26-June 1. Can't do longer because other people had already requested time off around those weeks.

Glad to know I have company in scheduling such a late trip. I start on the same day as you but am fortunate enough to be able to stay longer. Still, it's the time between 5/15 and then that I'm worried about missing. I would love to start earlier but my chasing buddy has a family commitment on 5/25 so can't fly out to the Plains until the next day. So we had to have our chase vacation either before that or after that. In that situation I'm going to miss stuff either way, so I guess it's all the same. Turns out to be better with my work schedule anyway.




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[Marc Remillard]

I feel you James, we're about to book our chasecation for next week. What I'm worried about is missing some better stuff later in may as I can't extend my vacation to two weeks.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Really liking how the GFS has not backed off next week's trough. The devil is in the details but good shear and fantastic DP's are on the way. Still think there will be at least 2 very high ended days next week. Could be a prolonged period of SVR beyond if the pattern holds.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Will be heading down for a week of chasing on Sunday. I'm really liking Monday through Saturday. It was looking like a no go a few days ago, but then the models started settling down and "finally" showing some consistent moisture. I'm betting on Tuesday and Friday being big days, which of course means they will probably ending up being the worst days of the week.
Looking down the pike, the CFS has been consistently showing the end of May and beginning of June to look like a slice of heaven. It's a long ways out, so I'll just have to pray it holds up!

 

[Justin McGinley]

Really liking how the GFS has not backed off next week's trough. The devil is in the details but good shear and fantastic DP's are on the way. Still think there will be at least 2 very high ended days next week. Could be a prolonged period of SVR beyond if the pattern holds.

This is my first time posting here so if i miss up let me know please. Getting a little bit better at reading models.

I do agree Warren I was looking at the CFS, and the Canadian model the all have the low being pretty strong 998 and 995. The CFS has it a little further north to. Noticed also temps ranging from the 70s-mid 80s. And dewpoints 50's-70s.

 

[Tim Paitz]

This is my first time posting here so if i miss up let me know please. Getting a little bit better at reading models.

I do agree Warren I was looking at the CFS, and the Canadian model the all have the low being pretty strong 998 and 995. The CFS has it a little further north to. Noticed also temps ranging from the 70s-mid 80s. And dewpoints 50's-70s.

Don't get discouraged by the dewpoints in the 50s if you're looking at the High Plains. High Plains storms generally don't need as much moisture.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Will be heading down for a week of chasing on Sunday. I'm really liking Monday through Saturday. It was looking like a no go a few days ago, but then the models started settling down and "finally" showing some consistent moisture. I'm betting on Tuesday and Friday being big days, which of course means they will probably ending up being the worst days of the week.
Looking down the pike, the CFS has been consistently showing the end of May and beginning of June to look like a slice of heaven. It's a long ways out, so I'll just have to pray it holds up!

Maybe I am looking at this wrong but end-of-May doesn't look too good to me. I am focused on the period when my chase vacation begins (5/26) and it looks like the 500mb flow is way up on the Canadian border for my whole first week, with the next trough not digging into the Plains until around June 2?



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[Todd Lemery]

I see what you're smelling James. The CFS has eased up on the crazy cape they were showing and also the high pressure that's shows up eerily close to invading the southern plains at the end of May. That being said, as of now it still shows Southern winds at the surface bringing in moisture and 35 knot upper level winds coming in from New Mexico to meet at the dryline. I'm sure by tonight it will change again though.....