chrisbray
EF4
Last couple GFS runs have really highlighted Friday as a potential big day. Let's not give up yet!
State of the Chase Season: 2017 Edition
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The GFS has been persistent in wiping out the Gulf for the first week in May. I'd like to see a flip-flop soon.
Troy Scheiber
EF0
Sounding forecast for Friday afternoon looks interesting for central OK.
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Geez, latest GFS run showing a lack of moisture return for next Friday. Getting a bad feeling after getting my hopes up.....
chrisbray
EF4
Spoke too soon. GFS, you fooled me again.
Devin Pitts
EF2
Ah yes, cold front ruining everything(again).
Someone remind me why everyone is freaking out about changes from one GFS run to the next about an event 5-6 days away...I thought I trained this forum better.
Will Campbell
EF2
It cracks me up. People seem to think that mid/long range model discrepancies ONLY apply to positive parameter space values, but CINH, CAA, and moisture quality/depth are perfect!
"Oh man, Friday will be a bust, you can't trust those high sigtors/helicities/shear values, plus look at the YUGE cap and crashing CF!" The pessimist nature of many weather enthusiasts has long been a source of entertainment for me. I remember people whining about things prior to Apr 14, 2012, Apr 27, 2011, May 20, 2013 etc etc etc... you can always nitpick some bad things out.
Well Jeff, I can't speak for everyone, but my freaking out is in direct proportion to how badly I want a good day to verify. I haven't had a chase yet this year and after a long winter I'm desperate to head South. Kinda like when watching a game and thinking it's the end of the world whenever the other team scores...
Dan Robinson
EF5
Patience is key .... unfortunately some years, you have to be patient through the next season - or even two. May is coming. It's not over until we get to the first week of June and there's still a ridge/jet in Canada 10+days out on the Euro and GFS.
Troy Scheiber
EF0
I agree I have looked at the GFS and the moisture does come in really late on Friday. I hope that we can get moisture earlier in the afternoon to spur on something severe
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Ethan Schisler
EF5
A lot of severe weather this week/weekend and not really a lot to like chase-wise on these in my opinion. Sunday has my attention locally as the GFS is tracking a pretty strong surface low up into Southeast Iowa/West Central Illinois with rich moisture ahead of it. Getting instability to materialize will be key, but this is a rather optimal setup for my area to see tornadoes in the spring-time. Obviously way too early to get into specifics, but that is where my attention has shifted. Long range after that looks pretty bleak to me based on my look last night at models. Hopefully things can turn around in the first couple weeks of May.
Dan Rupnow
EF1
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2008
- Messages
- 78
Euro also showing a very similar setup for Sunday. Not an ideal setup by any means, with weak instability, and backed upper level flow, but that surface pattern in IL always bears watching. Plus it wont take much CAPE to get it done with the insane 50+kt LLJ that the GFS is showing.
Brett Roberts
EF5
The past month or so has gone roughly how I feared when the pattern first set up toward the end of March: relatively active, but low payoff (except for one fluke day). For the most part, we couldn't get a single robust longwave trough to move across the western CONUS following several days of undisturbed moisture return; instead, it tended to be a parade of shortwaves that would've been great in late May, but not so much in April. It's reminded me of active-but-unrewarding early seasons like 2008 and 2009. That trend definitely continues this week. After that, it looks like we may see the first prolonged (1+ week) unfavorable pattern of the season... right as May rolls in.
I haven't completely given up on Friday, even though it's probably not going to live up to the long-range hype. Hopefully, it can at least spit out a few robust supercells to tide us over, because it may be awhile after that.
I haven't completely given up on Friday, even though it's probably not going to live up to the long-range hype. Hopefully, it can at least spit out a few robust supercells to tide us over, because it may be awhile after that.
chrisbray
EF4
I hope the longe range models are wrong, because if not, the first week + of May is a complete bust
