State of the Chase Season: 2017 Edition

[Paul Knightley]

Don't forget beyond about 144 hours it gets very dodgy believing what is being shown, unless you see consistent trends or output. Ensembles are the best help in this regard. For example, ECMWF's ensemble mean shows a strong Pacific jet beyond 300 hours, and then a mean ridge in the western CONUS. Although nothing solid can be gained from this, the hints are that western US troughing is favoured. Something similar is shown on the GFS ensembles. A few hints are there that w/c 22nd May could see a lower latitude sub-tropical jet causing troughing in the SW'ern US. This might be followed by a ridge before the polar front jet in the N Pacific starts to breakdown into a western US trough. But, the main thing I've learned over the years is not to be too worried about it - once out there, chase day-by-day!

 

[Jeff Duda]

Chase season 2017 feels like June-or-bust to me at this point.

 

[Michael Snyder]

Chase season 2017 feels like June-or-bust to me at this point.

Oh come on now, next week has potential for diamonds in the rough. The best kind of chasing! Decent moisture, southerly 850s, 500s over the top. Looks like Tuesday maybe thur/fri. Its May, get out and chase, just don't run any stop signs.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Too many negative vibes!

I don't even look at the long "rage" after about May 15. This time of year I generally depend on NCEP guidance: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html

It currently looks above average to me.

There are a host of possibilities from Mid-to-late May into June, including NW flow events, orographic, Caprock, firenadoes, Denver Cyclone, and other wx oddities if everything else fails. Too many examples to list here, e.g., Campo. If you focus on outbreaks and high risk conditions then you will go mad. You also have to be willing to travel to the long shots, from Roswell, Midland, Grand Island to Limon and western Iowa.

 

[Dan Robinson]

My concern about next week is what seems to be a tendency for moisture to mix out. The dryline is shown having trouble keeping the 65+ DPs pooled. I'm not sure I understand why else the models are so eager to keep the southern/central Plains so disconnected from what looks like a seasonably robust supply of 70+ dews along the Gulf coast.

 

[Warren Faidley]

My concern about next week is what seems to be a tendency for moisture to mix out. The dryline is shown having trouble keeping the 65+ DPs pooled. I'm not sure I understand why else the models are so eager to keep the southern/central Plains so disconnected from what looks like a seasonably robust supply of 70+ dews along the Gulf coast.

One of the lead forecasters at AMA use to call it "Seasonal Moisture Bias." The GFS shows acceptable RH in the eastern TX Panhandle and nearby areas next Tuesday with a "TOR" hazard sounding. I think the risk will only get better as time goes by. I don't buy the crazy swings in surface features too far out but the moisture will be somewhere E / W, but not pushed back in the Gulf.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I am keeping a close eye on next week as well. I sat last week's underwhelming setups out and managed to nab a couple tornadoes on a supercell within an hour of home, so that was nice! Even though my actual technical "chasecation" doesn't start until May 26th, I may have to make an early run next week looking at the GFS and Euro.

I can agree with what other posts are saying. So far on an overall level this has been an underwhelming season. Part of me wonders when it is going to give though, because even in the leanest years, we end up with one or two major days that make it or break it for people (2009, 2014 etc). I can only hope for a stretch like June 16-18, 2014 at this point....

 

[chrisbray]

Surprised no talk about next week at all, Monday through the weekend could have potential chasing each and every day!

 

[Jeff Duda]

Surprised no talk about next week at all, Monday through the weekend could have potential chasing each and every day!

Start a forecast thread for it! You're plenty capable of it, Chris.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Well that didn't last very long. This week looks to have its fair share of issues, sure there could be tornadoes on both Tuesday and Thursday, but neither are a slam dunk at this point. Next week looks like a down week with mostly northwest flow. And now the GFS has the same thing advertised for the start of my chase trip as well (May 26th). While this can easily change, we are halfway into the month of May and not seeing much hope on the horizon. I can only hope for a 2009 or 14 scenario where June saves the season (for some). It doesn't help either that today we are looking at probably our first 90 degree day of the year here, which usually doesn't happen until June sometimes.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Today (Tue) is looking like another day where overall pattern recognition and climatology were better predictors than details in the last couple days' model runs - many of which were negative as others here have noted. It's forest vs the trees. Combo of good instability and SW flow in mid/late May is a huge red flag. Not recognizing that has cost me more good chases than the other way around.

Possibly more of the same Thursday, and maybe even Friday if trends hold. Unfortunately I'm missing today's action but will try to fly out and catch something later this week. Another consideration is that long-range guidance like NCEP ensembles and CPC has been consistently bleak.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It does not surprise me that we are making an early transition into the NW flow period of the season -- given the lackluster pattern so far. Looking at the models, I don't see the zonal / NW flow pattern changing anytime soon after it sets up next week. This does not mean it's the end of the season -- it means shifting chase operations to eastern Colorado two weeks earlier than planned! I do believe we will get back to a few days of SW flow eventually.

 

[chrisbray]

Hope you all enjoyed the past couple days, because get ready for another long week of East Coast Troughing!!

 

[Jesse Risley]

Long-range ensembles are depicting the possibility of a return to somewhat of a favorable pattern by the first weekend in June, so 14-16 days out. In the interim, there is the occasional embedded perturbations that are yet to be resolved by long-range models, as well as the seasonable upslope flow that Warren alluded to. June is usually good for a surprise or two as well.

 

[Stan Rose]

I give up...im gonna take up something new like ice skating or maybe baking cookies...