State of the Chase Season: 2016 Edition

[James Gustina]

This year has definitely been polarizing in terms of deciding overall quality, and I think it's falling into the same kind of gulf that 2013 fell into for a lot of people. Outside of the week and a half of nonstop chasing in 2013, that season was extremely pedestrian. Actually it's oddly comparable to this year, except this year didn't have nearly as many chase days through May as 2013. I'm also hard pressed to remember a worse April, even including 2014's lack of moisture-plagued setups, which knocks this season down a few pegs for me even with 3-4 spectacular tornado days thrown into the mix once May rolled around. Regardless, we've still got quite a bit of chase season ahead of us, assuming the impending ridge doesn't shunt setups into Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Also keep in mind it's quite likely similar stretches of "diamonds in the rough" events have likely occurred in recent times, but due to the lower numbers of chasers spread about in the Plains before then, it's less likely people saw those particular events.

• It is now common for at least a dozen chasers to still be chasing after sunset. Thus many after dark tornadoes that probably were missed in years past now are captured.

• It is now common for there to be hundreds of chasers out between May 1 and June 15 because that seems to be when the vast majority of chasecationers come out. Thus there is usually someone in every stretch of the chaseable area of the US from eastern MT though southwest TX and eastward to Dixie Alley and Michigan. Thus more tornadoes are seen even on less evident days simply due to increased chaser sampling. Some of the tornadoes occurring in relatively remote areas in the corners of chaseable terrain in the US or well removed from the highest SPC risk area end up being more photogenic than those closer to the center of Tornado Alley or in the highest risk areas.

• It is now common for dozens of chasers to be on the same tornadic storm in many different storm relative locations. Thus it is more likely that someone will capture a truly remarkable angle of a tornado, whether it be from up close or way back with the structure above it.

20 years ago, none of these statements were probably valid. Hell, maybe even 10 years ago it would've been a stretch to believe some of these statements.

So are good years truly good meteorologically, or is it just a better sampling by storm chasers? Also, how much does improved camera/vehicle technology play into this? Probably a lot. A lot of chasers probably have 20+MP cameras and really nice HD/4K cameras that have ever better technology. Higher res images and videos with less noise and better white balance etc. The documentation has improved.

I couldn't agree more, Jeff. An interesting mental exercise is to think about some awesome tornadoes that have been documented in recent years and consider how long ago it might've been the case that they went unreported.

For example, take Campo. Absolutely a career day by almost anyone's definition. Yet, is it that far-fetched to believe it might've gone completely unobserved by chasers and unreported to the NWS in 2000? How about 1985? I can absolutely see the latter. A week earlier on 23 May 2010, spectacular tornadoes occurred at sunset on the NM border west of Dalhart in a 2% or 5%, well away from the main chaser hordes in KS/NE/SD - but a handful of chasers bagged them. Combine these with Last Chance, Dupree, and a few others, and it isn't that hard to imagine that if 2010's events had occurred in the mid 1980s, our record of the season might indicate it was mediocre at best. Only a small handful of the setups that year were synoptically evident (guaranteeing many chasers going out in the old days) and/or produced strong, long-track, impactful tornadoes (guaranteed to be reported/rated by NWS in the old days).

Even on big days with many tornadoes, the sheer number being reported and observed has likely skyrocketed alongside chaser numbers. On 14 April 2012, supercells struggled to produce significant, long-lived tornadoes for several hours after initiation. But every bird fart during that afternoon period was well documented by chasers, and the SPC Storm Reports page lists a staggering 153 tornadoes (122 filtered).

For any given season before roughly 2000-2004, it's possible that numerous amazing but localized/remote tornadoes are missing from the record. No doubt, there were some seasons back in that era that were legitimately terrible. I think the one thing we can say confidently is that when seasons in today's era turn up very few quality images and videos, like pre-Pilger 2014, they are probably even worse than would be suggested just by comparing directly with "bad" seasons 20 or 30 years ago.

 

[JF Massicotte]

The EF3 wedge was southeast of Turkey, TX on the 23rd. Dick McGowan reported a separate cone as well.

Not sure we are talking about the same but we definitely saw a stovepipe tornado further East maybe 15 minutes after the first tornado. Didn't have time to go through my stuff yet I'll post some picture later. There were not many chasers still out there but at least one other chaser reported it on Facebook. This storm near Turkey was pretty impressive just after dark.

 

[John Wetter]

Perhaps it's about time for the southern plains to go dormant and for the northern plains to come alive? So far this year, it's been striking how little there has been in the northern plains. In MN, we've only had a couple bird-fart tornadoes and that's it, not even any real hail yet which is unusual. While the past week was insane for the southern plains, the northern plains have been very quiet. The CFS chicklet page on SPC's website has had the second week of June looking interesting again. Of course, that approaches climatological max for SVR in MN also. I look forward to the northern plains coming alive and the southern plains (and the southern plains chasers, ha ha) going into their summer hibernation!

 

[Andy Berrington]

I got a feeling there's going to be a very active period starting sometime in the second/third week of June. Consistent projections from the mid range models indicate an intense upper level jet extension developing across the North Pacific later this week into early next week. As this occurs and the western ridge eventually breaks down, it may open the door for unseasonably strong mid/upper level flow across the central/northern CONUS. This would likely be juxtaposed with seasonable moisture return/a large reservoir of high instability as with most Junes (and especially considering how much rain the moisture source regions have received so far this spring).

CFS chiclet chart has been indicating an active period in mid/late June for quite awhile now and it did a decent job with the recent active stretch. On top of this, June and the northern Plains are climatologically favoured coming out of El Nino. This season is not over, not by a long shot.

 

[David Reid]

Really hope so!
Returning to the U.S. chasing for the first time since 2009 on the 8th June for 10 days so that would suit me

 

[Jeff House]

Next sustained opportunity may be about a third of the way through June. Along with the CFS weeklies and GFS ensembles, the European weeklies and ensembles favor a Rockies trough by June 10. Counting day(s) before the day it could set up as early as June 7. MJO could offer some support for all this NWP. Lingering Nino effects in the atmosphere also do not hurt June north. Another chance is quite possible.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

I certainly hope so. Because the GFS/ensembles have been trending more towards a sustained western ridge and eastern trough. It'd be nice to finally have a northern season for once. Haven't really had one since probably 2010.

I don't think there's been a legitimate setup yet this year north of the KS-NE border.

 

[Michael Towers]

I take about half a dozen trips on average and the relative success or failure of a year largely depends on the most potentially optimal setups paying off. My first three trips this year were duds so to miss last week’s action due to injury was frustrating. The silver lining is I would have missed a great week of business and thankfully I canceled a last minute desperation trip early on the 26th as the pain was just too much to bear...the result of the trip would have only added…ah, you know the cliché. There’s also no guarantee I would have had any luck on the big days, my aversion to crowds may have resulted in me missing those amazing tornadoes on the 24th and 25th, at least that’s what I keep telling myself, lol. So on the positive side I’ve kept some powder dry and while the models don’t promise much in the near term the climatology favors at least a few more good setups for the season. The geography in June & July can be more favorable for me as well, those Nebraska and Dakota trips can shave a day off the time it takes to do a similar one to the southern plains.

 

[Michael King]

I take about half a dozen trips on average and the relative success or failure of a year largely depends on the most potentially optimal setups paying off. My first three trips this year were duds so to miss last week’s action due to injury was frustrating. The silver lining is I would have missed a great week of business and thankfully I canceled a last minute desperation trip early on the 26th as the pain was just too much to bear...the result of the trip would have only added…ah, you know the cliché. There’s also no guarantee I would have had any luck on the big days, my aversion to crowds may have resulted in me missing those amazing tornadoes on the 24th and 25th, at least that’s what I keep telling myself, lol. So on the positive side I’ve kept some powder dry and while the models don’t promise much in the near term the climatology favors at least a few more good setups for the season. The geography in June & July can be more favorable for me as well, those Nebraska and Dakota trips can shave a day off the time it takes to do a similar one to the southern plains.

Michael, there were no crowds on the Chapman tornado, Cheers, Michael

 

[Michael Towers]

Michael, there were no crowds on the Chapman tornado, Cheers, Michael

Well, so much for that consolation. Cheers

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Michael K.------There were lots of crowds on the Chapman tornado-------I drove past several of them.(unless you were being sarcastic).

 

[Royce Sheibal]

I've only logged one chase so far this year, 5/26 in SE Nebraska. No tornadoes, just a couple wall clouds and a warning for a rain-wrapped HP meso. Got hailed on for nearly an hour straight, small stuff. Things were really looking good for a minute, radar showed a nice spin up, but then the mature cells got over-run by new cells to the south cutting off their inflow.

HP nightmare forecast, HP fail-boat realized. Also, there was a red Jeep Cherokee trailing us for about half of the chase and stopping behind us, but I couldn't get out to say hello due to hail. That anyone here?

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I will be interested to see if something can crop up for the second week of June (6/10ish). CFS and GFS have been advertising a pattern change around this time period and climatology would favor something occurring in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during mid-June as well. Anything though this far out is just fantasy land, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on things and interested to see what happens.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The Euro and GFS suggest that the southern/central Plains season is done (aside from boundary-driven mesoscale accidents and of course the Front Range) . The 06z GFS wishcast seems to show some hint of a shortwave or two embedded on the zonal-to-northwest flow for the far northern Plains, and maybe the Upper Midwest. I've got enough chase funds left for one more 2 or 3 day trip, but I'm not seeing anything on the horizon that has me itching to spend that money.

EDIT - of course, as soon as I post this, I look at the 12z GFS to see it has a shortwave coming through NE/KS late next week. We'll see.