State of the Chase Season: 2016 Edition

[Dan Robinson]

I realize "good" and "bad" years are subjective (I missed Pilger-Coleridge-Alpena, so my 2014 Plains season was meh), but it doesn't get much better than this past week. Many of the best seasons (2004 for example) have featured these multi-day subtle western troughing systems with daily dryline plays, without a major synoptically-evident outbreak. Especially in May, these types of systems scream to me "go chasing" just as much as a major ejecting wave. Not every day will work out, but you can usually count on at least one of them going big.

This week you basically had Bennington II, Rozel II and III (back-to-back in 20 minutes no less) and Manchester stovepipe in two days. That may not be best ever, but pretty close!

 

[Matt Hunt]

I agree with Dan, and from a chasers perspective, it doesn't really matter if it's an outbreak or not, you just have to be on the right storm. This has been BY FAR my best chase season. In fact, had I only chased on 5/24, that day alone was far better than any whole season! Now most of that has to do with the fact that this is my first year living ~in the plains, and I was able to take 2 whole weeks off for chasing. Plus, I now have plenty of money for gas & hotels. I still could have done even better, since I foolishly didn't chase on 5/21 or 5/25. I'm especially mad at myself for sitting out 5/25, and will be forever, since Salina was going to be my target. I came into this year... and actually came into May this year, with only 9 tornadoes. I've seen 18 in the last 3 weeks!

 

[JamesCaruso]

It's difficult to objectively compare seasons without the prejudice or confirmation bias of individual success/failure, especially as a chase vacationer whose "season" is whatever two weeks I can get out to the Plains - so for example, although I wasn't particularly successful personally in 2013, I have to admit that last two weeks of May was one of the best possible stretches even though the general consensus is that the overall season wasn't so good.

So I won't attempt to compare seasons in this post. But I did really enjoy this past week. My trip started on Saturday and although we missed Spearman on Sunday and Salina on Wednesday (I will forever regret not deviating from my ICT-area target after seeing that storm go up on radar), we got Leoti and DDC, the latter of which was a career day for me. Including Thursday's debacle, we had 5 consecutive days that we were in tornado watches, 4 consecutive days on tornado-warned storms, and 7 consecutive chase days if I count today which we just bailed on an hour ago to head back to OKC. I felt good about the week before I came out due to the forecast general southwest flow pattern, and it did not disappoint. I agree with Dan about the favorability of that type of multi-day dryline setup.

I was supposed to be out next week too but am heading home tomorrow due to the unfavorable forecast. Looks like the GFS was directionally correct after all - I feared how "week two" appeared when I looked at it at the start of my trip last Saturday 5/21. I will fly back out again next week if things look good. But since I can only take two weeks, I would rather go home now and at least have a chance of coming back for a good pattern. My date options are more limited, I'm looking at coming back just for the period 6/4-6/9. I have to be home 6/10 for family reasons, and although I could theoretically get out here for the week of 6/13 instead, my chase partner can't make it out again after the 6/4-6/9 period. If that stretch looks anything like this past week, I'll be very happy. But I won't come out again if it doesn't look good.


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[Jeff Duda]

and then there were very impressive tornadoes just after dark

Please provide some examples, because that's the first I have heard of anything of the sort, and the SPC reports page doesn't have much from that day.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

Please provide some examples, because that's the first I have heard of anything of the sort, and the SPC reports page doesn't have much from that day.

If he is talking about 5/23, although I am not sure about "tornadoes", there was a big tornado just SSE of Turkey that many of us saw well after dark.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I also noticed the turkey tornado wasn't in the storm reports, but it looked pretty good in the lightening flashes.


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[Dan Robinson]

The EF3 wedge was southeast of Turkey, TX on the 23rd. Dick McGowan reported a separate cone as well.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

When I said 2016 would go down in the record books, I probably didn't use the appropriate phrase for the point I was trying to make. My point really is that this past week of chasing is about as good of a stretch of consecutive chase days as we have ever seen. Could it be the best multi-day run of chases since the last week of May 2008 or even the first week of June 1995? 2013 was another stretch. The best part of this past week's run of storms is that no town took a direct hit from a tornado.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Please provide some examples, because that's the first I have heard of anything of the sort, and the SPC reports page doesn't have much from that day.

To echo Clarence and Dan, the storm near Turkey appeared to produce at least a couple tornadoes, one of which was a strong wedge. It looks like one of these made it into SPC Storm Reports. Thankfully, NWS LUB is surely aware of them and they will go into Storm Data, since the wedge was rated EF3.

Some good pics/screen grabs were posted to social media by Dick McGowan (#2) and Stephen Jones.

 

[Manuel Salgado]

I can definitely see both sides of this discussion from my perspective. I couldn't chase this week as I am studying for my qualifying exam and seeing the reports and pictures day after day really made me jealous because those are the type of storms everyone wants to see. I've had a couple of great chases this year but for me, I missed out on the biggest week of the season so its not all that great. I even missed out on a tornado that came within 5 miles of me yesterday! Furthermore, I have 10-11 days on which I was planning to do North Central chasing during the first 2 weeks of June and all indications so far are that it will be a very quiet period. So I think many people may have just had a great season, but for me this will more than likely be an unremarkable one.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I can definitely see both sides of this discussion from my perspective. I couldn't chase this week as I am studying for my qualifying exam and seeing the reports and pictures day after day really made me jealous because those are the type of storms everyone wants to see. I've had a couple of great chases this year but for me, I missed out on the biggest week of the season so its not all that great. I even missed out on a tornado that came within 5 miles of me yesterday! Furthermore, I have 10-11 days on which I was planning to do North Central chasing during the first 2 weeks of June and all indications so far are that it will be a very quiet period. So I think many people may have just had a great season, but for me this will more than likely be an unremarkable one.

Yeah, adult responsibilities kept me from getting out this past week. And of course the GFS looks quiet the next couple weeks. This year has been pretty meh for me. Got out a few weeks ago for a couple days but that was it and no tornadoes to speak of.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I would also like to point out that many GFS forecasts going into this past week indicated at times fairly widespread mid-upper 70s dewpoints across the southern Plains. That did not verify. While I have not checked every single METAR in the southern/central US over the past 144 hours, I only recall seeing 75 north of about I-10 a handful of times, and 70s dews were more sparse than the GFS had been forecasting.

 

[Michael Snyder]

For my chasecation I caught the May 21-Leoti storm and tornadoes, May 23- The Woodward storm and tornadoes, the May 24- Dodge City storm and 8 (yes 8) Tornadoes, the May 25th-Chapman storm and EF4 Tornado, then on the 26th big day, I bailed almost immediately and got to the CO/KS border in time to see rapidly spinning funnel clouds with gorgeous structure, with not one chaser in sight.

Its by far my best chasecation and which includes my best chase day ever (May 24th).

12 Tornadoes and get this- EVERY SINGLE STORM that I chased during this week was Tornado Warned while I was on it. The only day I didn't score big was Sunday, I missed 2 Tornadoes by minutes, by getting lost on Texas backroads near Memphis TX.

I don't know if I can ever top this chasecation, but Ill be trying to do just that next year.

My point is that its like this every year, some have a great season , some have a trash season.
Making blanket statements about the quality of the chase season is now and always will be completely worthless in my mind.
There is always a gem to be found out there somewhere, that can make or break your own personal chase season.

 

[Brett Roberts]

For my chasecation I caught the May 21-Leoti storm and tornadoes, May 23- The Woodward storm and tornadoes, the May 24- Dodge City storm and 8 (yes 8) Tornadoes, the May 25th-Chapman storm and EF4 Tornado, then on the 26th big day, I bailed almost immediately and got to the CO/KS border in time to see rapidly spinning funnel clouds with gorgeous structure, with not one chaser in sight.

Its by far my best chasecation and which includes my best chase day ever (May 24th).

12 Tornadoes and get this- EVERY SINGLE STORM that I chased during this week was Tornado Warned while I was on it. The only day I didn't score big was Sunday, I missed 2 Tornadoes by minutes, by getting lost on Texas backroads near Memphis TX.

I don't know if I can ever top this chasecation, but Ill be trying to do just that next year.

My point is that its like this every year, some have a great season , some have a trash season.
Making blanket statements about the quality of the chase season is now and always will be completely worthless in my mind.
There is always a gem to be found out there somewhere, that can make or break your own personal chase season.

It sounds like you had about the best chasecation anyone could ask for! Congrats.

I don't really agree with the whitewashing of good and bad years, though. Maybe us locals who are looking for stuff to chase all season see it differently. For someone who's only out here a week all year, I suppose it really does come down more to luck and personal success on the few days you're handed. But ask any "hardcore" chaser whether 2004 and 2006 were at all comparable, and I doubt they'll see it that way. Look back over the past 20 years, and you'll see the gap between the very best and very worst years is really a chasm. Granted, it's possible for someone to miss all the good stuff in a banner year due to various circumstances, which would make it a bad season for them personally. But some of the really bad seasons have virtually no great days even available for the taking (2006 being the best recent example, and 2014 was like that too before June 16).

It's always awesome to hear about vacationers who come in at just the right time and grind their way to a banner season in under a week. It takes a lot of commitment and guts to risk your vacation time in advance that way! For those of us who live out here, we will almost necessarily try to be at least slightly picky and make the go/no-go call the day of each chase, based primarily on the meteorological quality of the setup. From that perspective, there certainly are "good" and "bad" years that transcend personal opinion.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Also keep in mind it's quite likely similar stretches of "diamonds in the rough" events have likely occurred in the past, but due to the lower numbers of chasers spread about in the Plains back then, it's less likely people saw those particular events.

• It is now common for at least a dozen chasers to still be chasing after sunset. Thus many after dark tornadoes that probably were missed in years past now are captured.

• It is now common for there to be hundreds of chasers out between May 1 and June 15 because that seems to be when the vast majority of chasecationers come out. Thus there is usually someone in every stretch of the chaseable area of the US from eastern MT though southwest TX and eastward to Dixie Alley and Michigan. Thus more tornadoes are seen even on less evident days simply due to increased chaser sampling. Some of the tornadoes occurring in relatively remote areas in the corners of chaseable terrain in the US or well removed from the highest SPC risk area end up being more photogenic than those closer to the center of Tornado Alley or in the highest risk areas.

• It is now common for dozens of chasers to be on the same tornadic storm in many different storm relative locations. Thus it is more likely that someone will capture a truly remarkable angle of a tornado, whether it be from up close or way back with the structure above it.

20 years ago, none of these statements were probably valid. Hell, maybe even 10 years ago it would've been a stretch to believe some of these statements.

So are good years truly good meteorologically, or is it just a better sampling by storm chasers? Also, how much does improved camera/vehicle technology play into this? Probably a lot. A lot of chasers probably have 20+MP cameras and really nice HD/4K cameras that have ever better technology. Higher res images and videos with less noise and better white balance etc. The documentation has improved.