Indeed.
For the last few months, CPC has been promising Southern Aridzona plentiful winter rain. Unfortunately, the clouds don't seem to have received the memo. Several storm systems have come and gone, but most have focused their energy well to the north.
Likewise, most mid-range models consistently overestimate the southern extent of precipitation, and correct their forecast only a day or so before the system's arrival. This has been the case for the last few years, it seems.
In short, El Nino may produce more precipitation for someone, somehwere, but I don't know if we'll see any of it.
Greg, it's still December. Most of the previous El Nino's didn't even begin to impact Southern California and Arizona until January. I've been logging (in detail) rain events in Southern California since I was a kid, back during the El Nino of '77-78 (gawd now I'm dating myself). It wasn't until after Christmas '77 when the first El Nino enhanced systems started arriving. The following 3 months, Jan-March of '78, were epic around Southern California. As I thumb through all my log sheets in front of me right now, the same applied to the subsequent El Ninos of the early 80's, early 90's, and the epic El Nino of '97-'98. I do not remember in any detail how Arizona was affected during each of these events, but I do remember seeing on the news the Salt River through Phoenix flooded several times during some of those El Nino years.
While it is true what David says that past events are not an indicator of future happenings, there is sufficient climate data over a period of time to draw reasonable conclusions for the possibilities "in general".
We still have 3 months ahead of us.
I like the optimism Jason. I'm going to go ahead and endorse this plan for the 2010 chase season.
