Chase Case #4 (2010 Version)

After reviewing models, I am heading northeast Into Manhattan, Ks and wait to see what I will do from there. :D should be a good day
 
Boy, sure glad I didnt bite on last night's data and stayed home in St. Joseph. I really see no need to go anywhere til I see some some 18z data, so Im gonna hang around and get some things done in St Joseph, MO. Realistically, I can get anywhere I need to go within a couple hours.
 
Based on the 0z data I spent the night in Hays, Kansas and I really don’t like what the 12z data shows. I really dislike the veered 850mb winds and the meager moisture further north. That being said, I think I will chase the warm front setup and head towards Sioux City, Iowa. I will have to check the 18z data along the way and make adjustments as necessary.
 
Rolling out of Wichita heading to Auburn NE. I should be there before 18Z. Don't want to play the cold front and think the play will be a OFB intersecting the warm front. Sure would be nice to get more data! :)
 
Wow, drove a little too far west last night. Going do drift back east to Omaha, NE. Will hang out there until the the 18z data comes out.
 
18z Suite of Updates

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM PARTS OF NEB AND E KS / WRN MO INTO ERN OK AND WRN AR... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE..A FEW COULD BE STRONG...GIVEN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING....
MDs

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SW MO/WRN AR/ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL/FAR SWRN IND/FAR WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH PARTS OF NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK THROUGH SW TX
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SD/WRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
Watches
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE FROM 1215 PM UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
1245 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
125 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
345 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE FROM 345 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
Surface
National
Upper Mississippi/Northern Plains
Central Plains
Middle Mississippi Valley

Rawinsondes
DVN
FWD
LBF
LZK
OAX
OUN
SGF
TOP

Radar
National Composite
Upper Mississippi Valley Sector
Northern Plains Sector
Central Plains Sector
Central Mississippi Valley
Southern Mississippi Valley Sector
Southern Plains Sector

Satellite
National
ICT Sector
EVV Sector
AUS Sector


The next update will be at 21z.
 
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I think I went a bit too far south. Going to slide north up the dryline towards what appears to be a developing bulge in SW KS. I can see CU starting to develop along it. Target: Caldwell, KS. Should be there in 2 hours. May even head a little farther north to get north of the bulge. We'll see when I get there. Moisture depth looks pitiful in N KS, not so much into NE, but I'm concerned they won't break the cap up there. It doesn't look too bad in S KS either.

By the way, the national surface analysis (first link) seems to be giving away something as it is showing activity in SC KS as of the "18Z analysis" which is not showing up on the radar mosaics nor the surface obs. Is that from the correct date?
 
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Not impressed by anything I am seeing with sounding hodos... Dewpoints just south of me are lower than I hoped but the moisture return in SC KS and C OK is optimistic.

Drop a bit south to Beatrice, NE.

Chip
 
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