Chase Case #4 (2010 Version)

Hmm...not what I'd like to see. Low-level moisture went to hell over most of the region I had previously thought to be prime. The surface boundaries are farther north and east than I had anticipated. Also, what's with this 850 mb dry punch of westerlies over Kansas??? That pretty much removes Kansas and vicinity from the play. So...I either have to go north or south. Capping does not look to be an issue later in the day in either direction (despite current convective temperatures exceeding their predicted highs at a number of sounding locations like OAX, TOP, and OUN). The southern target is more open to moisture return and has just a tad better moisture than the north target right now, which is somewhat cut off from more return. I'll pick the southern target and start heading south. I'll get on I-35 and head south into Oklahoma, stopping to check data in Guthrie
 
Im not sold on the moisture getting to far north with this system. I think southern nebraska is as far north as the good dewpoints will get. Between Hebron and Beatrice looks like a good target area. Headed to Fairbury,Nebraska.
 
I will start heading north.... The upper level jet maximum has round the base of the trough and with the de-amplification I don't see it digging any further south. I need to head north toward Newkirk, OK for a 3 HR 41M drive.
 
Waking up, and I'm liking north central OK/south central KS for today. So I'm going to make my way to Enid, OK where the 18z data should be coming out. I'll make my move from there.
 
Argh, this morning's data reminds me of the start of a couple of chases, but there were key differences in each. I hate the veered 850's bringing in the dry air from the west and the fact that the LLJ is so far east now. Half of me wants to run north towards the triple point in NE and try and play the warm front up there, and the other half of me wants to drop south into OK where the low levels winds aren't as veered and the moisture is better. I'm going to half ass it towards the northern target and move NE to Topeka, KS and await the 18z data.
 
Argh, this morning's data reminds me of the start of a couple of chases, but there were key differences in each. I hate the veered 850's bringing in the dry air from the west and the fact that the LLJ is so far east now. Half of me wants to run north towards the triple point in NE and try and play the warm front up there, and the other half of me wants to drop south into OK where the low levels winds aren't as veered and the moisture is better. I'm going to half ass it towards the northern target and move NE to Topeka, KS and await the 18z data.

Same target, and same thought process. Couldn't decide between the triple point, warm front, or dryline. I have a feeling one or the other will light up and I'll be stuck in the middle again... Or, this is a bust case with those warm mid level temps and veering winds right off the surface (which I'm more inclined to believe).
 
Waking up from Hotel Bennett in OMAHA, NE. I think I am going to hang around here this morning for a while. I don't hate what I see, but still far from being giddy about it. I will probably play the sfc low today.
 
Woke up in Hays ready to travel and on the road I'll be. Should have no problem reaching Clarinda, Iowa by 18Z. Looking forward to having lunch at the Shiddle-E-Dee... not by reputation, but simply by name.
 
I'm gonna stay put in Salina for now. Good upper-level flow coming this direction. Good moisture in place. Some clear skies moving in from the west with a cold front approaching. I like my options here and have time to move after going over 18z data.
 
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