Chase Case #2

21z Update

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After seeing the 21z update I'll be departing Clinton Oklahoma and head west to Erick Oklahoma. New convection looks to be firing in the eastern TX panhandle.
 
I am in Belleville it is 21Z, based on the new out look I am heading to Geneva, NE. It is 50 miles away, so I can make it there by 22Z. I see an agitated mass of Cu in N KS so the dryline maybe ready to go. No watch out yet, but I expect one shortly.
 
We were just west of Hastings and it appears the dryline has just pasted Kearney a bit so we will head back to Hastings and wait there. We can see some cu to our S closer to the KS/NE border, but we will be patient in Hastings.
 
I'm happy where I am in Nebraska City. Satellite and radar suggest stuff trying to fire just to my NW, and with a little back building once they get going, I could be in the perfect spot. I also could be too far south, but if so, I can blast north on 29 and catch the storms as they cross into Iowa.
 
I'm staying in McPherson,KS. I wish I stayed in OK, but I have already made the drive and it's too late to head back. I'm staying where I'm at and will make a play off of what develops, if it's close enough. Looks like a cell going up on the KS/NE border. I'm looking for development SW of that to move my way. Still hoping for a cell to come off the dryline and move in my direction.
 
Looks like I need to be just a tad north so will head into Grand Island for a pre chase bite to eat. Love the 50 kts. of deep layer shear and strong directional shear in LL. Think this may be a fruitful chase.
 
I'm making the 4-hour drive from Childress, TX to Dodge City, KS.

Target: Dodge City, KS at 22z

With the stuff going up in the E TX PHL I have holted my progress north at 21z in Laverne, OK. I'll sit here and watch the TCU to my SW. It is hot and I don't like the tornado prospects in SW KS and W OK because of that. The best shot at a tornado appears to be within an hour of sunset. I should have gone to NE or far SW TX.
 
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I made it to Beatrice and saw the little blip on the visible satellite on the KS-NE border, hoping that it is the start of something big here around the warm front. It's still a little capped out here, but LCLs should come down a little bit with additional moisture being brought in by the 850 mb flow. If anything appears to break the cap I am well on my way to meet it down 103/136.
 
based on 18z I liked SE Neb to SW IA possibly. (with the option to head SW into N Kansas) Lincoln area would be OK as I'm coming in from Eastern Iowa.

21z confirmed that I had a workable location, will stay here until further notice...
 
TARGET: Moving from Belleville, KS to near Chester, NE a short drive up Hwy 81. INITIATION: 0Z to 02Z.

Road structure is not optimum, but manageable in all directions from this area.....like what I am seeing on the vis sat as well as the forecasted wind fields and CAPE....sure hope I have Internet connection here in NE to look at SKEW-T Data from the area!
 
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