Caribbean: TS Richard

[Stuart Robinson]

The GFS has been quite consistent in forming Richard in the same area that formed Paula. If you have faith in the model, then Richard will go on to become a DEEP Hurricane @ 20th October that *may* (changes run to run) affect Florida @23th -25th October!

What is quite interesting with this scenario is that 23-25 coincides with a lifting ridge that may well keep Florida shear free. Overall I really think that this is one to watch. 5 days away is not quite model fantasy land considering the run to run consistency.

Thoughts anyone ?

 

[Warren Faidley]

The last two runs of the GFS (18z and 00Z) have vaporized the tropical system..... but has another interesting cut off low terrorizing AZ.

W.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I agree with Stuart that this is something to watch.

I don't get too caught up with the details of any specific model run that far out. The fact that the GFS loses it for a run or two means nothing at this range-- the important thing is that this feature has been consistently showing up, run after run, more times than not, for days now. What it says to me is that the GFS is sniffing out a generally favorable pattern. The details beyond that are pretty academic.

All of this aside, I should point out that this evening the NHC labeled the disturbance in the SW Caribbean as a Code Yellow (10% risk). That's a start.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

UKMET, NOGAPS and ECMWF have come onboard in forming “Richard” @ 20th. All differ in projected tracks (No surprise really!). What I do note is the agreement of a large upper air high parked right over the Caribbean. If this come to pass then the environment would seem favourable for cyclone formation and development.

 

[Robert Keller]

Richard

It would be interesting to know if the season is over? I want to suspend my XM satellite weather for a few months if nothing is coming in. How do you find out about AZ storms? I don't see anything on the SPC page. Do you go locally into their forcasting?

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I have been watching this as it seems to "appear" and then "disappear" on and off the GFS and other models. An example was going from the 12z model on the Oct-14 GFS, it showed a massive system threatening FL 180 hours out, then, three hours later on the 18z, it was completely gone.

This morning, the 180 hr GFS for 0z (10-15) shows the storm again, but near the Yucatan.

I HIGHLY doubt these models so far out. But I'll be out of town next weekend (10-21 to 10-25) so maybe that's the issue here (you'll get a storm over your state when you DON'T want it / Murphey's law).

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Going on 2010 GFS Tropical Cyclone formation performance so far… I am 80% confident that Richard will form, 25% confident that Richard will become a major, 10% that Richard will affect Florida.

Time will tell… but I would not cancel that XM subscription just yet…

 

[cdcollura]

The GFS is showing that all-to-familiar "Nica" storm now. Meaning if anything DOES form, it will make landfall on the Moskito coast, accessible only by canoe.

Air is DRY as a BONE in the mid levels over FL ... I just skydived through it!

Dry and cold - Very Canadian - Anything (of tropical origin) "ingesting" that air is doomed ;-)

I really do not trust these models simply because the air north of 20 degrees gets very hostile towards anything tropical the farther UP you go ;-(

I HATE shear...

 

[jdrenken]

It's not just the GFS...

12Z

GGEM
UKMET
NOGAPS

We've got an invest associated and NHC is at 20%.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

It's not just the GFS...

12Z

GGEM
UKMET
NOGAPS

We've got an invest associated and NHC is at 20%.

I agree its still very interesting to look at, but the fact is that no matter how many models show a disturbance... they are still not very accurate this far out. Having said that, I hope we get some success with this one.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Never say never.... have a look what the GFDL does with invest 99L

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Yeah, that GFDL run overnight was total porn. I know, I know-- it's just the GFDL-- but still. It was hard not to get a small tingly feeling from it.

Cloud tops have warmed a bit this morning, but the visible loop shows a clear spinning off the HN/NI border area.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Try looping the water vapor imagery (see link below)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Now that's some serious shear blasting over FL and north of Cuba ... Let's make bets on how quickly this "Richard prospect" will quickly shred once it "touches" that strong wind aloft ;-)

Only 300 days or so until our next BETTER season....

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

Try looping the water vapor imagery (see link below)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Now that's some serious shear blasting over FL and north of Cuba ... Let's make bets on how quickly this "Richard prospect" will quickly shred once it "touches" that strong wind aloft ;-)

Only 300 days or so until our next BETTER season....

It won't necessarily move N into Cuba/FL, though. The models diverge, and some bring it W into Belize or the Yucatan. Perhaps counterintuitively, the GFDL brings a major 'cane N to Cuba, whereas the HWRF brings a weaker 'cane W into Belize.

I know, I know-- both models are on crack. Maybe I'm being desperately optimistic here.

I admit, it's been a frustrating couple of years for American chasers.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Todays 06z GFDL and HWRF show more weather "porn" CAT3+ West of Cuba by the 25th October.

However GFS does NOT support this ...