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What will happen this winter?

Re: This Winter

Originally posted by Glenn Rivers
How about a 960 mb bomb over the lower Great Lakes, like that of Jan 26, 1978.

For spring, how about a semi-permanent upper trough over the Rockies, and a semi permanent ridge off the E coast, with energetic short waves lifting out of S plains and across Great Lakes every 3 days of so.

You stand to be corrected! LOL... The low was actually 955mb, not that it makes a difference when it's already sub 970's...

Quote from NWSFO DTX [ http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.htm ]

while the 1978 storm intensified to an almost unbelievable 28.20 inches (955 mb)!

Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043 :(
 
Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043

Don't worry, storms have no knowledge of what happened in the past. I've seen numerous "100 year" storms where I live and I'm only 25. In fact, in December 1992 and March 1993 we had "100 year" events.
 
Originally posted by B Ozanne
Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043

Don't worry, storms have no knowledge of what happened in the past. I've seen numerous "100 year" storms where I live and I'm only 25. In fact, in December 1992 and March 1993 we had "100 year" events.

Certainly is possible, and I hope so :D! But a storm of deeper than 970mb that far inland is very spectacular, and I would assume rare as well. Usually nor'easters that become very deep are able to do so because of marine influence (usually the storm deepens around South Carolina, where the waters are a bit warmer), however; Like I said, a system that far inland (central Ohio) with a MSLP of 955mb :shock:
 
:D

LOL, just checked the 06Z GFS at 372-384HRS (Not that it's accurate, but more for kicks)...

GFS has a rather potent Alberta clipper dropping down through MN, with 850mb temps of less than -4C, and 1000-500mb thickness values of 534 to 540. GFS also outputs over an inch of QPF into this cold air, along with some gusty winds across northeast MN! Using a 8 to 1 snow to liquid ratio (given that conditions are on the warmer side of the snow spectrum), that would equal 8 inches of pure slush on a warm ground... Interesting!
 
What about those winter severe weather outbreaks like January 21, 1999 (AR) or December 23, 2002 (TX)? 2003-2004 I recall was a fairly quiet fall-winter svr wx season.
 
NOAA says the Midwest won't be looking at much in the way of snow this year.

But the wooly worms and prisimon seeds say we will! :)

So do the squirrels LOL... They have made well over 2 dozen holes in our yard, storing food... this is the first time that they have ever gone to this extent :lol:

I absolutely do NOT have any faith in ANY long range forecasts, be it the Famers Almanac, CPC, AccuWeather, and the list goes on...
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
Every winter's different, I'm looking forward to whatever this season brings us.:-D


...Above wrote on October 4th...


Man, would I have been disappointed back then knowing how dry a winter we were in store for this season. 13" of snow with the season almost over. :roll:
 
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