Dan Cook
EF5
Hey it's been 4 years without a decent snowstorm. I want snow! :twisted:
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What will happen this winter?
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Hey it's been 4 years without a decent snowstorm. I want snow! :twisted:Angie Norris
EF5
I would love to see a good shut-down-the-town snow (or ice) storm here in Norman, just as long as I'm HOME (or at school) when it happens. (Bring on the chili and brownies!!!!
)
Angie
Bryce Stone
EF4
I could be wrong on this, but isn't it difficult (if not impossible) to predict a season based on the previous season/seasons? For instance, the fact that we had an abnormally cool, wet summer has no effect on what kind of winter we will experience, right?
However, if we're voting on this, I vote for a mild, exceptionally short winter followed by a long, turbulant spring. :lol:
Robert Dewey
EF5
I think any kind of longer range prediction is nearly impossible. The CPC is correct a couple of times out of many when it comes to the >3 month forecast, and I believe there is still plenty to learn.
The folks at the farmers almanac suggest that the answers are within nature/animals. Though it hasn't been proven, I could see this being possible - Similar to how trees can sense the moisture in the air and flip their leaves over.
Chris Hayes
EF5
I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galoreGeoff Boyle
Originally posted by Chris Hayes
I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galore
I here ya bro!
I'll go for that.
David Draun
EF5
Short winter. Warm violent spring. Like I say,
"Winter.........blahhhhhhh......" :lol:
Robert Dewey
EF5
PSU has a 'winter outlook' that they base on previous years with similar conditions: http://pasc.met.psu.edu/PA_Climatologist/h...lite_071504.htm
Their snow depth maps seem to be misleading - It says inches, but I am thinking more like centimeters, here in southern lower MI, we have never seen a snowdepth (or total yearly average for that matter) of >100 inches [Detroit area].Chris Sokol
EF5
My "Official" Winter 04 forecast:
It will get colder.
Glenn Rivers
EF1
This Winter
How about a 960 mb bomb over the lower Great Lakes, like that of Jan 26, 1978.
For spring, how about a semi-permanent upper trough over the Rockies, and a semi permanent ridge off the E coast, with energetic short waves lifting out of S plains and across Great Lakes every 3 days of so.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Re: This Winter
You stand to be corrected! LOL... The low was actually 955mb, not that it makes a difference when it's already sub 970's...
Quote from NWSFO DTX [ http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.htm ]
Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043B Ozanne
EF5
Don't worry, storms have no knowledge of what happened in the past. I've seen numerous "100 year" storms where I live and I'm only 25. In fact, in December 1992 and March 1993 we had "100 year" events.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Certainly is possible, and I hope so! But a storm of deeper than 970mb that far inland is very spectacular, and I would assume rare as well. Usually nor'easters that become very deep are able to do so because of marine influence (usually the storm deepens around South Carolina, where the waters are a bit warmer), however; Like I said, a system that far inland (central Ohio) with a MSLP of 955mb :shock:
Robert Dewey
EF5
LOL, just checked the 06Z GFS at 372-384HRS (Not that it's accurate, but more for kicks)...
GFS has a rather potent Alberta clipper dropping down through MN, with 850mb temps of less than -4C, and 1000-500mb thickness values of 534 to 540. GFS also outputs over an inch of QPF into this cold air, along with some gusty winds across northeast MN! Using a 8 to 1 snow to liquid ratio (given that conditions are on the warmer side of the snow spectrum), that would equal 8 inches of pure slush on a warm ground... Interesting!
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, the winter outlook is out from CPC, and it doesn't look good for snow lovers in the Midwest! Looks like most areas have a 50-55% chance of being below normal precipitation. Nothing sucks worse than stormless, dry winter :sad:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm
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