What will happen this winter?

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Douglas D. Lee
Dan, you can have your blizzard. If one tries to come near Oklahoma, I'll try to find some way to send it to you.

With a car with no heat, I want a mild winter!!!!

Hey it's been 4 years without a decent snowstorm. I want snow! :twisted:

 

[Angie Norris]

I would love to see a good shut-down-the-town snow (or ice) storm here in Norman, just as long as I'm HOME (or at school) when it happens. (Bring on the chili and brownies!!!! )
Angie

 

[Bryce Stone]

I could be wrong on this, but isn't it difficult (if not impossible) to predict a season based on the previous season/seasons? For instance, the fact that we had an abnormally cool, wet summer has no effect on what kind of winter we will experience, right?

However, if we're voting on this, I vote for a mild, exceptionally short winter followed by a long, turbulant spring. :lol:

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Bryce Stone
I could be wrong on this, but isn't it difficult (if not impossible) to predict a season based on the previous season/seasons? For instance, the fact that we had an abnormally cool, wet summer has no effect on what kind of winter we will experience, right?

However, if we're voting on this, I vote for a mild, exceptionally short winter followed by a long, turbulant spring. :lol:

I think any kind of longer range prediction is nearly impossible. The CPC is correct a couple of times out of many when it comes to the >3 month forecast, and I believe there is still plenty to learn.

The folks at the farmers almanac suggest that the answers are within nature/animals. Though it hasn't been proven, I could see this being possible - Similar to how trees can sense the moisture in the air and flip their leaves over.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galore

 

[Geoff Boyle]

Originally posted by Chris Hayes
I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galore

I here ya bro!

I'll go for that.

 

[David Draun]

Short winter. Warm violent spring. Like I say,


"Winter.........blahhhhhhh......" :lol:

 

[Robert Dewey]

PSU has a 'winter outlook' that they base on previous years with similar conditions: http://pasc.met.psu.edu/PA_Climatologist/h...lite_071504.htm

Their snow depth maps seem to be misleading - It says inches, but I am thinking more like centimeters, here in southern lower MI, we have never seen a snowdepth (or total yearly average for that matter) of >100 inches [Detroit area].

 

[Chris Sokol]

My "Official" Winter 04 forecast:

It will get colder.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

This Winter

How about a 960 mb bomb over the lower Great Lakes, like that of Jan 26, 1978.

For spring, how about a semi-permanent upper trough over the Rockies, and a semi permanent ridge off the E coast, with energetic short waves lifting out of S plains and across Great Lakes every 3 days of so.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Re: This Winter

Originally posted by Glenn Rivers
How about a 960 mb bomb over the lower Great Lakes, like that of Jan 26, 1978.

For spring, how about a semi-permanent upper trough over the Rockies, and a semi permanent ridge off the E coast, with energetic short waves lifting out of S plains and across Great Lakes every 3 days of so.

You stand to be corrected! LOL... The low was actually 955mb, not that it makes a difference when it's already sub 970's...

Quote from NWSFO DTX [ http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.htm ]

while the 1978 storm intensified to an almost unbelievable 28.20 inches (955 mb)!

Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043

 

[B Ozanne]

Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043

Don't worry, storms have no knowledge of what happened in the past. I've seen numerous "100 year" storms where I live and I'm only 25. In fact, in December 1992 and March 1993 we had "100 year" events.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by B Ozanne

Hmmm.... It took 65 years for two storms of the same magnitude to strike (if you read the story, you will know what I mean, 1913), so I guess we're not due until 2043

Don't worry, storms have no knowledge of what happened in the past. I've seen numerous "100 year" storms where I live and I'm only 25. In fact, in December 1992 and March 1993 we had "100 year" events.

Certainly is possible, and I hope so ! But a storm of deeper than 970mb that far inland is very spectacular, and I would assume rare as well. Usually nor'easters that become very deep are able to do so because of marine influence (usually the storm deepens around South Carolina, where the waters are a bit warmer), however; Like I said, a system that far inland (central Ohio) with a MSLP of 955mb :shock:

 

[Robert Dewey]

LOL, just checked the 06Z GFS at 372-384HRS (Not that it's accurate, but more for kicks)...

GFS has a rather potent Alberta clipper dropping down through MN, with 850mb temps of less than -4C, and 1000-500mb thickness values of 534 to 540. GFS also outputs over an inch of QPF into this cold air, along with some gusty winds across northeast MN! Using a 8 to 1 snow to liquid ratio (given that conditions are on the warmer side of the snow spectrum), that would equal 8 inches of pure slush on a warm ground... Interesting!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, the winter outlook is out from CPC, and it doesn't look good for snow lovers in the Midwest! Looks like most areas have a 50-55% chance of being below normal precipitation. Nothing sucks worse than stormless, dry winter :sad:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm


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