What will happen this winter?

Okay, I know most of you don't like winter, but there are a few of us who do :D

What do you guys think will happen? Harsh winter, mild winter, etc.?

My prediction for the Midwest/Great Lakes would have to say another 'weak' winter... Farmers almanac is calling for some pretty harsh conditions, but it seems like that is what is what they say for every winter around here... CPC shows (using their monthly outlooks) slightly warmer than average with slightly below average precipitation, but their prediction for the summer of '04 didn't exactly pan out either across this area, :lol:...
 
The whole northeast Pacific has been anomalously warm for quite awhile. I'd be betting on generally cold and stormy east of the Mississippi, rather mild in the west, and some split-flow storminess in the southwest.
 
Have not looked at anything, like analogs,
long range forecasting stuff as of yet.

My hometown of Grand Rapids, Michigan
averages somewhere between 73.1 to 76.2
inches of snow a year, depending on what
data source you used for the average snowfall.

Last 4 years here in Grand Rapids MI been quite snowy:
2000-2001 98.1 inches
2001-2002 105.2 inches
2002-2003 88.0 inches
2003-2004 74.0 inches

Breakdown of the last 40 years of snowfall in Grand Rapids Michigan
03 years with 100.0-109.9 inches
04 years with 090.0-099.9 inches
05 years with 080.0-089.9 inches
10 years with 070.0-079.9 inches
10 years with 060.0-069.9 inches
05 years with 050.0-059.9 inches
02 years with 040.0-049.9 inches
01 years with 030.0-039.9 inches

035.9 inches is the lowest snowfall for a year in the last 40 years.
105.2 inches is the highest snowfall for a year in the last 40 years.
076.2 inches is the average snowfall for Grand Rapids

Want snow move to Houghton and Marquette Michigan, they
average well over 150 inches of snow, aloing with the areas in
Canada, and New York state, especially the Tug Hill Plateau area.

I will eventually post something on this upcoming winter and some
related weather links.

Mike
 
Winter Weather

Here in Dundas, at the West End of Lake Ontario, our last two winters were cold and harsh with un-common long periods without significant thawing. What was missing was the heavy snow. There were lots of days with snow cover, but few heavy storms.

My favorite type of winter storm is the type that develop over the Gulf and move up the W side of the Appalations, or sometimes the Colorado type storms when they stay on a track that leaves the area on the N side of the storm.

Living on Lake Ontario, we get the feeling of being in a New England style Nor-Easter, with mountainous surf crashing over the piers and swash washing up to the top of the beach, as waves driven by ENE gales build over the long fetch of Lake Ontario. There is a special, enchanting feeling in the air as the snow swirls out of the pink or white night sky's as the neon lights reflect off the low ceilings and or falling snow, and the thunder of the surf fills the air.

I have many fond memories as a teen, walking down to the waterfront of nearby Burlington's lakeshore (where I lived then) fresh snow whumping underfoot, ice pellets clicking on my hood, as I waited to come into view of the breakwater, where I would watch the surf pound the seawall with a boom like thunder, erupting geysers of spray and sometimes solid curtains of green water 20 and 30 feet into the air, flooding the walkway and occasionally much of the park.

Our part Black-Lab part Bluetick Hound "Missy" would run through the fresh snow with wild abandon, chasing the family and tugging on her leash, as if she were somehow absorbing the energy of the storm and releasing it in wild displays of hyperactivity that made her look as if she had regressed years into her playful puppy exuberance.

Maybe someday when the best years are all gone, I will look back, and ask myself seriously, If I had it all to do again, Would I, Could I?
 
Well over at the northwest coast, I guess we will see a typical mild, wet and soggy winter. Our reservoirs are bone dry, so we can use all the rain we can get.
 
Originally posted by mikegeukes
...Want snow move to Houghton and Marquette Michigan, they
average well over 150 inches of snow...

Mike

Yep, we have a cabin in Houghton. Since I work from home (just need internet access), I may very well move up there for the winter. While they do get 150-200 inches of snow, its more like 2-3 inches everyday, with the occasional one or two footer... It does get interesting when the winds start to blow up on the hills of Houghton...
 
In the spirit of volcano and earthquake forecasting I am predicting some cold weather, some snow, rain, a few storms. I don't want to be too exact so expect those conditions to occur somewhere in the Continental US.

As for me...I'll be spending half my winter on the summit of Mount Washington so I am expecting some really nasty conditions.
 
Norman Winters are pretty easy to predict, since we rarely have them. I'll go ahead and say we'll have our typical, non-eventful weak Winiter with maybe one measurable snowfall. Last year we had something like a whopping .4 inches all season. I was outside working on our biggest snow day, and though the flakes were bigger than quarters and fell around 10am, they were gone by noon.

What I would like to see is at least one good snowfall, the kind that shuts down the city for a day or two. I couldn't stand Winter for months at a time like they have up north, but I do like to experience it for a few days each season.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams
...What I would like to see is at least one good snowfall, the kind that shuts down the city for a day or two. I couldn't stand Winter for months at a time like they have up north, but I do like to experience it for a few days each season.

Those are the types of snow storms I like, the ones that bring everything to a halt - No cars on the road, business closed, etc.

My philosophy is go big or go home... If there is only going to be 3-5 inches, that's more of a nuisance type snowfall, bring on the yard stick snows!...
 
We have just had a hard winter down here(New Zealand) with higher than average snowfall in the high country and some sea level snow in the south. A couple of floods, one flood triggered a string of earthquakes. Some severe gales and an F3 tornado that claimed 2 lives. A winter to remember.
 
It's been a LONG time since we seen a good old fashioned winter "bomb" pass up through the great lakes dumping a foot or more of snow with high winds around my area. It seems we get our most snow's from fast moving vigorous alberta clippers. Those little systems can be very interesting though.

Every winter's different, I'm looking forward to whatever this season brings us.:-D
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
It's been a LONG time since we seen a good old fashioned winter \"bomb\" pass up through the great lakes dumping a foot or more of snow with high winds around my area. It seems we get our most snow's from fast moving vigorous alberta clippers. Those little systems can be very interesting though...

Sure would be nice to have one of those met 'bombs'...

I remember last year an Alberta clipper slid past the Great Lakes - NWS and others (including myself) were calling for 2-4 inches. As the system neared, it intensified (and given the extended angle at which the snow would be moving through), they upped amounts to 4-6 inches. Next thing I know, I am trying to drive home from school with about 10 inches already on the ground (almost got stuck several times), strong winds, and a winter storm warning for storm totals of 12-14 inches - From an Alberta clipper of all things!

Talk about not being ready, the city didn't even have the plow trucks out!
 
An alberta clipper can be very interesting. It's very common to have temps in the single digits with heavy snow. With ratio's of up to 40:1 it doesnt' take much to pile up a decent amount of snow quickly.
 
Dan, you can have your blizzard. If one tries to come near Oklahoma, I'll try to find some way to send it to you.

With a car with no heat, I want a mild winter!!!!
 
Originally posted by Douglas D. Lee
Dan, you can have your blizzard. If one tries to come near Oklahoma, I'll try to find some way to send it to you.

With a car with no heat, I want a mild winter!!!!

Hey it's been 4 years without a decent snowstorm. I want snow! :twisted:
 
I would love to see a good shut-down-the-town snow (or ice) storm here in Norman, just as long as I'm HOME (or at school) when it happens. (Bring on the chili and brownies!!!! :D )
Angie
 
I could be wrong on this, but isn't it difficult (if not impossible) to predict a season based on the previous season/seasons? For instance, the fact that we had an abnormally cool, wet summer has no effect on what kind of winter we will experience, right?

However, if we're voting on this, I vote for a mild, exceptionally short winter followed by a long, turbulant spring. :lol:
 
Originally posted by Bryce Stone
I could be wrong on this, but isn't it difficult (if not impossible) to predict a season based on the previous season/seasons? For instance, the fact that we had an abnormally cool, wet summer has no effect on what kind of winter we will experience, right?

However, if we're voting on this, I vote for a mild, exceptionally short winter followed by a long, turbulant spring. :lol:

I think any kind of longer range prediction is nearly impossible. The CPC is correct a couple of times out of many when it comes to the >3 month forecast, and I believe there is still plenty to learn.

The folks at the farmers almanac suggest that the answers are within nature/animals. Though it hasn't been proven, I could see this being possible - Similar to how trees can sense the moisture in the air and flip their leaves over.
 
I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galore :D
 
Originally posted by Chris Hayes
I'm with Dan on this one. I want a horrendous winter with at least 1 or 2 bonified blizzards, as long as I'm not working or going to school that day. Have winter come to an abrupt end in early March, and from late march to june have tornado outbreaks galore :D

I here ya bro!

I'll go for that.
 
This Winter

How about a 960 mb bomb over the lower Great Lakes, like that of Jan 26, 1978.

For spring, how about a semi-permanent upper trough over the Rockies, and a semi permanent ridge off the E coast, with energetic short waves lifting out of S plains and across Great Lakes every 3 days of so.
 
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