Try to predict how the chasing season could be

[Karen Politte]

LOL Shane you missed April 2nd.

I'm going with a blend of Brian and Shane's philosophies/gut feelings for this spring. Foremost, however, you have to do what Shane suggests and just take each system as it comes - no matter if it's in Feburary or July. Mother nature sure doesn't care how many tornadoes are "expected" or "forecast" out of her with each season - and therefore we shouldn't really stress about it, either. I know that Andrea etc. are trying to make sure that they visit the Plains during the time that has the best likelihood of seeing tornadoes - but this is always a frustrating dilemma that lies really in the laps of the tornado gods rather than climatology.

One thing I have noticed is that with the persistent upper-level troughiness that is present in the east, leading to the doors to Canada being fully open for the foreseeable future (yay for me), the moisture and heat return seems to be taking place further west than normal......leading to our CAPE advection taking the "scenic route" up through the Texas Panhandle into the western Plains. This of course isn't necessarily what I WANT to see personally - as AR seems pretty much shut out of any moisture return for the rest of February into early March - but for the long term what it may mean is that the true Plains may light up early in the season rather than places further east of there.

It's not much of an insight but it's about all I've got right now. All we have to do is wait and see. I would suggest, however, that it would be a good thing to have your batteries charged already. If the past few years are anything to go by - March will be a chasing month!

KL

 

[Shane Adams]

LOL Shane you missed April 2nd.

LOL, indeed...as soon as I saw your name it hit me "Ahhh, April 2"

 

[MatthewCarman]

Let's not forget April 13 where around 20 tornadoes would touch down with 18 of them in Iowa. Iowa city took a big hit. Then there was the big outbreaks in the fall. August and September was good for ND,SD and MN. I am sure there is other even't we missed aswell.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Determining how the season will be from a single source such as El Nino/La Nina trends simplifies things too greatly, IMO. There are just so many factors that come into play. Andrea, I think what you are looking at doing is to nail down when your best chances are in any given year to pick a couple weeks of when it will be best to chase.

Severe weather chasing basically comes down to when will a strong trough come through at the same time as the central plains have loaded up with enough CAPE. In March through April this seems to happen every three weeks or so. In May through June it can happen every 4 days. In Aug through Oct it goes back to every three weeks again.

Those of us who live in and near tornado alley have the luxury of waiting for those big events in early and late season and can increase our chances greatly of being in on the big days any time of the year. This is why many chase vacations fail, tornado TV productions have lack-luster results and some chase tour groups see nothing at all on any particular week.

If I had to pick any two week timeframe to chase tornado alley it would be the last week of April and the first week of May.

 

[Jared Farrer]

Well it seemed that 07 in all was a fairly active year for the most part IMO anyway! The dryline seemed to be pretty active too. Indiana was for the most part dry during the summer months, and activity was lacking. I would say for my area, that we had a bad year! It definitly wa a spring and late fall kinda year. And if I recall correctly that storm motions were insane pretty much all year! Very hard on the nerves. LOL.

I have been reading alot trying to get a feel for what kind of year it will be. Mainly early spring and late spring. I remember last year alot of emphasis was on what the dryline was doing. In 06 it seemed that the dryline was more east and drier air masses were moving very far east and north?!

I am not sure what the Pacific temp oscillations are doing now, but I think that plays a hugh role, in at least storm tracks?!

 

[Paul Knightley]

Big La Nina at the moment, which seems to favour more violent tornadoes and outbreaks (according to a paper cited in another thread). However, there seems to be little linkage between tornado numbers and the ENSO phase. I would expect to see several more large tornado outbreaks this late winter/spring, and unfortunately, more strong-violent tornadoes.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Big La Nina at the moment, which seems to favour more violent tornadoes and outbreaks (according to a paper cited in another thread). However, there seems to be little linkage between tornado numbers and the ENSO phase. I would expect to see several more large tornado outbreaks this late winter/spring, and unfortunately, more strong-violent tornadoes.

I would expect some outbreaks in early spring if Nina should be strong till the end of spring. Why do you say in late spring, Paul?

 

[Marc Remillard]

I think he wanted to say "Late winter / Early Spring"

 

[Paul Knightley]

I just meant "Spring" to be honest...I don't think I can hope to pin it down much more, although historically earlier in Spring seems to be favoured.