Our theories about Nino and Nina and tornadoes

Coming back to this thread, in order to try some conclusions if there's some correlation between Oni index pattern and tornadic activity, I have to say that the comparison in terms of Oni index between 74' and 08' cannot be done because, as we can see, those years are too different.

This is a little summary of the Spring season.

- So far, we had nearly 1600 tornadoes.

- In January there were 136 tornadoes reported in the United States, of which 84 were confirmed: some of them was a violent tornado.
From January 7 to Jan 10 we had some Tornado Outbreaks: more tornadoes occurred across the Mississippi Valley on January 8 and after a break in the activity on January 9, another round of severe weather took place in the Southern United States (primarily Alabama and Mississippi) on January 10.
We had other tornadoes in other days in Ohio Valley, Kentucky, Indiana.

- In February 230 tornadoes were reported in the United States in the month of February, of which 148 were confirmed. Many of them were strong-violent tornadoes.
February was the month of the Supertuesday outbreak: Southern United States and the lower Ohio Valley were affected on February 5 and 6, 2008. Missouri, Misissipi, Alabama, Illinois, Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee were among the affected regions in which primaries were being held.
On February 12-13/16-18 other Tornadoes were reported in Florida and Luisiana,Carolina, Southern Alabama(Gulf States).

- 150 tornadoes were reported in the United States in the month of March, of which 126 were confirmed.
Mississippi River Valley States were hit on March 2-4 (strong tornadoes reported); Strong tornadoes hit Georgia and Carolina some days later.
At the end of March some tornadoes hit central Plains states as Oklahoma and Texas, and Missouri.

-There were 189 tornadoes reported in the United States in the month of April, of which 189 were confirmed.
The most affected states by tornadoes and severe weather were east of Missouri river, Missouri, Misissipi, Tennessee,Iowa, Alabama, Louisiana,Carolina.
On April 23-25, the Mid-West starts to be affected by tornadoes and severe weather: 21 tornadoes were confirmed across northern and central Texas.On April 24 On April 24, several severe storms spawned a few tornadoes in Kansas, Iowa and Wisconsin. At the end of April some tornadoes were reported in Virginia and North Carolina.

-There were 597 tornadoes reported in the United States in the month of May, of which 447 were confirmed.
May 1-2, 2008 tornado outbreak affected Iowa to Oklahoma and Arkansas.
On May 7-15, Misissipi river valley States,estern Oklahoma (overall Arkansas and Missouri) and Gulf States were affected by many tornadoes: someone of them was violent.
On May 22-25 we had some strong tornado outbreaks and I say this is the first time that the pattern changes; Mid west (Colorado,Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Iowa) is the zone mostly hit by tornadoes and severe weather.
On May 29-31, and June the mostly affected zone was the Great Lakes region.
 
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After that summary, we are ready to fix at least some points about this season.
First of all this has been the Oni index pattern:

-1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 it is not ended yet.

I think we can consider the 08 Winter and Spring quite "Nina", even if Autumn months are quite neutral.
Reading the summary of 08 season we can fix these points:


- Tornadoes and severe weather affected Misissipi Valley States, the Gulf States (Overall Luisiana and Alabama) and eastern USA over the major part of the year, especially in Winter and early spring, just as we expected.

- January and February had an incremented number of tornadoes and an high numer of violent tornadoes.

-May had a very high number of tornadoes.

- We had some Big Outbreaks, especially during May and February.

- The major part of strong tornadoes occurred in states as Arkansas, Tennessee, Iowa, Alabama, Kentucky,Misissipi,East Oklahoma(overall east of Missouri River).

- After May 20 the synoptic pattern had a change: Central Plains States were affected by many tornadoes some of them strong and violent. This change occurred when the Nina was hanging down and becoming more neutral. Could be this the reason of the modification of the severe weather area?

Any comments and thoughs are appreciated.
 
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Note SPC mentions multiple reports of same tornadoes have been weeded out. An impressive year nevertheless.

La Nina then was good for tornado season as some had predicted?

So, what do the larger scale patterns suggest about this next Spring? Will it be a busy winter?

Climate Prediction Center long term forecast indicates warmer than average predicted for plains:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead13/off13_temp.gif
but 1 month indicates colder
3month shows warmer, particularly OK, KS, AR, MO, as well as increased precip
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
Maybe some early action in KS/OK. Never a bad bet for those states for tornadoes is it?
But if La Nina was a major influence, then we may miss out with that in 2009, but as Andrea suggests maybe it is more a matter of location and the "central plains states" is where people want to chase. Probably one shouldn't be hasty about much generalizing here. Where are the climatologists on this issue lately regarding tornadoes?
--
Forecast models are in general agreement that near-neutral conditions will prevail through the remainder of 2008, and that there is no substantial risk of El Niño or La Niña through the remainder of 2008 and indeed into early 2009. However, confidence in projections into early 2009 carry increased uncertainty. Expert interpretation refrains from drawing any robust conclusions at this time about the likelihood of El Niño or La Niña development during the historically favoured time of year of March-May. Thus, over the next months, tropical Pacific conditions and forecast models will be closely monitored for any signs of possible changes in early 2009.
---
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html
 
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I think the southeast is effected to a greater extent by these cycles than the plains. Maybe not just the southeast, perhaps the eastern US as a whole. I know the tornadoes hit earlier and more frequently in march-april and further to the north when they say la nina is a factor. They seem to be stronger as well.
 
So has this been a record year for the most tornadoes?

Mattew, it is sufficient that I post this map:

2008-oct-spc-torgraph.png
 
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