Try to predict how the chasing season could be

[Andrea Griffa]

Taking into consideration we should have Nina conditions(decreasing on spring) it seems that we could have a condition similar to 1996. Try to compare 1995-1996 ONI pattern and you could find that it could be similar to 2007-2008(if NINA forecast verifies).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


As the ONI pattern of 2007-2008 could be so similar to 1995-1996 one, I think that we could have a similar chasing season, as I found that similar ONI patterns tend to have similar "weather behaviours"(I know it is still not proved but I believe so)

1996 had some strong tornado outbreaks in April and an if I'm correct, also an high number of tornadoes in may (I don't find the statistics for 2006: anyone can find'em?).
At this point I think that we could have one ore two tornado outbreaks after the first half of April and maybe a good may(I want to see tornado statistics of 1996 before).

1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8
1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4

Let's see your opinions and your thoughts about 2008 spring chasing season.

 

[Chris Hayes]

1996 was deffinately not a watermark year for tornados in the plains. From April 1, to July 1 there were less than 250 tornados across the chaseable terrain of the plains. We better hope for something better than 1996. lol.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

1996 was deffinately not a watermark year for tornados in the plains. From April 1, to July 1 there were less than 250 tornados across the chaseable terrain of the plains. We better hope for something better than 1996. lol.

It depends on the way you mean: probably the people that had the possibility to chase these 3 days don't think the same as you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_1996_Tornado_Outbreak_Sequence

I think that to rate a chasing season good or not good you have to consider not only the total numer of tornadoes occurred in April and May (that is important, I know) but you also have to count the number of good chasing days; in this case 3 outbreaks(April 19-20-21), in a month is not that bad. I don't know about May, it could be fine to see may 1996 tornado statistics. Did you find May 1996 statistics,Chris?EDIT(I'm taking a look to some old Doswell chases about 96' and I found that it was a so bad May)

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Considering the Enso 2008 forecast,making an average of all the lines, another year that could look like 2008, could be 1989 with moderate Nina in first months of the year and weakening Nina in the other months.
1989 had 89 tornadoes in April, 230 in May and 250 in June, not bad, this time To me this could be more probable for 2008 than 1996 (too neutral Nina from May to November).

 

[Chris Hayes]

Using Severe Plot, I plotted out the May 1996 tornado reports. There were 143 tornados across the more chaseable terrain of the plains. May 26 appeared to have been the best day with a cyclic supercell that produced several torandos over SW Ks.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Using Severe Plot, I plotted out the May 1996 tornado reports. There were 143 tornados across the more chaseable terrain of the plains. May 26 appeared to have been the best day with a cyclic supercell that produced several torandos over SW Ks.

Thanks Chris. And what about 1989?

 

[Chris Hayes]

May 1989 was pretty slow for tornados in the chaseable terrain of tornado alley as well. There were only 96 tornados. Most of them were very short lived and over Texas.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Let me make a point here aside from a forecast and this years climatology. I've learned for me that some of my best years were bad years for other chasers. The reasons are that 1) I made really good forecasts; 2) I managed to hit the few big days available whereas others did not; 3) The events were geographically closer to me (southern plains) than recent years of big activity far north (northern plains).

So, my point is that even a crappy season based on total tornadoes for Spring / Summer can still be a great year for you if you pick them properly and carefully and you catch the worthy events.

 

[Jason Foster]

Other factors

I'm not so worried about the numbers. I think it will be better and better every year because between the increase in forecasting skills (both officially and within the chaser community), better technology, better (more reliable) vehicles, etc. We'll all (as an average) fair better.

Strickly speaking of "the numbers" I haven't completed my unofficial statistical analysis, but my gut feeling is better than '06 & '07 but still a below average year.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Let me make a point here aside from a forecast and this years climatology. I've learned for me that some of my best years were bad years for other chasers. The reasons are that 1) I made really good forecasts; 2) I managed to hit the few big days available whereas others did not; 3) The events were geographically closer to me (southern plains) than recent years of big activity far north (northern plains).

So, my point is that even a crappy season based on total tornadoes for Spring / Summer can still be a great year for you if you pick them properly and carefully and you catch the worthy events.

That's sure Bill, but I think it could be useful to try to make comparison with old Enso patterns to realize how could the season should be.

It remains to say that if a season is crappy, it is crappy also for a good forecaster and if a season is magic (like 2004) it's magic for a lot of chasers.

 

[Jim Cross]

I found this interesting in Ed Berry's lastest post on his Atmospheric Insights website.(Quote)I continue to have concerns about the developing dryness across the Southern High Plains from western Kansas into the Texas Big Bend. Enhanced subtropical jet activity at times extending into the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains may mitigate drought in these areas during this upcoming Spring. This was posted this past weekend.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am wondering how things may unfold this March-April timeframe and have some of my own gut feelings/observations. One would have to expect that the LLJ may again favor east of a KC to Tulsa to Dallas to San Antonio line as some of the more recent early spring's seemed to play out. For this reason I believe that many of the bigger early spring events will favor the Mid-Lower Mississiipi Valley areas and points eastward. This unfortunately would put many areas hammered so far this winter at risk more later this spring ...KY/TN/AR/MO/IL/IN/MS/AL/LA/GA. Guess time will tell how well these fairly intense Pacific storms will interact with a warming and moistening airmass later in March and April. This may be one of those scary years down South in Dixie and up towards the Ohio Valley.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not worried at all. Climatology and chasing tornadoes have little to do with one another inside a single, Spring Plains chase season. I see a lot of people getting worked up over La Nina, El Nino, etc etc. But the reality of chasing is, you just need to pay attention to the days you're given and maximize their potential. I've had some of my best chases in horrid years, and I've had some really good seasons personally inside really crappy years overall.

The trick is to chase the systems as they come, one at a time. Getting all freaked out because we're only gonna get 800 tornadoes versus 1300, or worrying that it's not gonna be 2004 or 1991 again is a waste of energy. Every season will produce chase days, the trick is to focus on each day as it comes, not get caught up in the Big Picture. Difficult as it might be to believe, there are still great chase days that get swept under the rug because they weren't high-profile outbreaks, and 20,000 chasers weren't there. Most of these happen in March and April, before the hordes invade the Plains for "May Days" chasing.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm not worried at all. Climatology and chasing tornadoes have little to do with one another inside a single, Spring Plains chase season. I see a lot of people getting worked up over La Nina, El Nino, etc etc. But the reality of chasing is, you just need to pay attention to the days you're given and maximize their potential. I've had some of my best chases in horrid years, and I've had some really good seasons personally inside really crappy years overall.

The trick is to chase the systems as they come, one at a time. Getting all freaked out because we're only gonna get 800 tornadoes versus 1300, or worrying that it's not gonna be 2004 or 1991 again is a waste of energy. Every season will produce chase days, the trick is to focus on each day as it comes, not get caught up in the Big Picture. Difficult as it might be to believe, there are still great chase days that get swept under the rug because they weren't high-profile outbreaks, and 20,000 chasers weren't there. Most of these happen in March and April, before the hordes invade the Plains for "May Days" chasing.

Shane, those are true words but the reason why some chasers,me included, tend to study climatology,try to find a Nina-Nino pattern linked with tornadoes formation,try to find correlation between years that produced more tornadoes in May or in April or in March, is due to a little period available to chase. If you have 10-20 days to chase per year, you do alla that you can to try to understand if it's better to take your vacation on May rather than April or else...

You're right when you say that most of big chasing days happen in March and April, before the hordes invade the Plains for "May Days" chasing, but you forget that not all the chasers can chase over all the year,either because of the lack of availability or because of lack of money.

 

[Shane Adams]

Shane, those are true words but the reason why some chasers,me included, tend to study climatology,try to find a Nina-Nino pattern linked with tornadoes formation,try to find correlation between years that produced more tornadoes in May or in April or in March, is due to a little period available to chase. If you have 10-20 days to chase per year, you do alla that you can to try to understand if it's better to take your vacation on May rather than April or else...

You're right when you say that most of big chasing days happen in March and April, before the hordes invade the Plains for "May Days" chasing, but you forget that not all the chasers can chase over all the year,either because of the lack of availability or because of lack of money.

I understand where you're coming from, but what I'm saying applies to the entire Spring season, not just March and April. I used those two months as an example to demonstrate how good chases days (in today's chasing world) go largely-unnoticed because of the reasons I mentioned above...which ties into my main point that despite "chase community perception" as a whole, every year has great opportunities and it's important to channel your focus chase-to-chase, instead of worrying about the overall pattern. Here's an example:

2006...when most chasers hear that they think "Oh Gawd"

Yet here are some days chasers saw tornadoes:
March 12
March 20
March 30
April 6
April 15
April 24
April 28
May 2
May 5
May 7
May 9

When you look at that list, it really wasn't such a horrible chase year...including May. So my philosophy most-definitely applies to the May vacationers as well.