Roger Hill mentioned to me at Chasercon that the pattern was shifting to a more active one as evidenced by the last few impulses moving across Colorado and adjacent areas over the last week or ten days. He has a valuable resource in Dr. David Gold who does long range forecasting, so hopefully a more active pattern means things will begin to pick up over the next few weeks. We can only hope!
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Jeff Piotrowski
EF3
2010 Tornado Season!!
The current NW flow pattern will hold over the next 60 days most of March & April will be mild and wet for most of the SC Plains. Tornados in March & April in the SC Plains YES most like TX, AR, LA, MS, OK for the most part!
The pattern will shift into high gear from May- late June time frame. The problem is the GOM is going to need time to recover from this winter. The other problem is with so many strong system SW flow for a few days then deep NW flow on the back side of each system is likely to keep the 850mb veered from NW –SW flow over most of the SC plains until the MAY-June time frame. The current pattern would support lots of WF-DL storms in West-North TX March-April time frame. The pattern should shift into a sustained SW flow at 500mb pattern at that time with deep 850 SSW flow from the GOM into the central and SP.
Bottom line I expect the good storm chasing is going to be delayed until May-June time frame one exception will be TX. Once the pattern shifts into a good SW flow pattern for weeks at a time. I expect there will be very significant outbreaks this year. 2010 will be better than 2009 seasons with all of the moisture in the ground from this winter. The long range outlook shows very wet pattern over the next 21 days in the SP. This bolds well for rapid recovery once the April and May sun starts heating up the ground.
The current NW flow pattern will hold over the next 60 days most of March & April will be mild and wet for most of the SC Plains. Tornados in March & April in the SC Plains YES most like TX, AR, LA, MS, OK for the most part!
The pattern will shift into high gear from May- late June time frame. The problem is the GOM is going to need time to recover from this winter. The other problem is with so many strong system SW flow for a few days then deep NW flow on the back side of each system is likely to keep the 850mb veered from NW –SW flow over most of the SC plains until the MAY-June time frame. The current pattern would support lots of WF-DL storms in West-North TX March-April time frame. The pattern should shift into a sustained SW flow at 500mb pattern at that time with deep 850 SSW flow from the GOM into the central and SP.
Bottom line I expect the good storm chasing is going to be delayed until May-June time frame one exception will be TX. Once the pattern shifts into a good SW flow pattern for weeks at a time. I expect there will be very significant outbreaks this year. 2010 will be better than 2009 seasons with all of the moisture in the ground from this winter. The long range outlook shows very wet pattern over the next 21 days in the SP. This bolds well for rapid recovery once the April and May sun starts heating up the ground.
Eric Sipes
I reject your reality and substitute my own!!!
IMHO, your probably right. This is fine by me because I'll have a front row seat for the "early" season action. Longest drive I'll have to take would be 5-6 hours.
On a side note, Looks like a CC setup for KS next Sunday and possible DL play in OK/TX. If the trend continues, we may need a forecast thead in a couple days.
-Eric
Derek Weston
EF5
Spring is here. We usually get a decent outbreak or two in March. It's showtime. I'm getting pumped.
The season? It was a cool -- not cold, I don't think -- and wet winter, and this figures to continue on into spring.
I'm not a southern plains chaser, but have read from vets repeatedly that lots of moisture in the area -- see panhandles -- usually leads to good things early on. Seems moisture will not be an issue...
Really too bad Ed Berry stopped his blog... not that I was able to understand a good deal of what he spoke of, he did do a good job of relating his insight back to severe weather on the plains, though.
The season? It was a cool -- not cold, I don't think -- and wet winter, and this figures to continue on into spring.
I'm not a southern plains chaser, but have read from vets repeatedly that lots of moisture in the area -- see panhandles -- usually leads to good things early on. Seems moisture will not be an issue...
Really too bad Ed Berry stopped his blog... not that I was able to understand a good deal of what he spoke of, he did do a good job of relating his insight back to severe weather on the plains, though.
Randy Bowers
EF1
When it comes to both state of the gulf and soil moisture, I HIGHLY recommend going back and reading Rich Thompson's post (post #27). Also, refer to his post (#17) in the 2010 Capping Inversion thread, where he talks about the importance of long fetches from the Caribbean and southern Gulf region.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
I have seen this first hand. The day of the Lone Grove, OK tornado (Feb 10, 2009) I was on a cruise ship in the southern GOM. We had 6-8' waves and strong southerly winds which were feeding into the surface low developing in OK/KS. It was quite impressive to say the least.
Paul Sherman
EF2
Still looking quiet for the forseeable in the Plains although Saturday could get Interesting across the Gulf States if one or two Models verify.
I wonder if any other years have started with this amount of activity and if so what were the April-June periods like in these years and did the ENSO Phase look similar.
I guess if it stays the same by Mid April a "Future of the Season" thread will be started
Paul S
I wonder if any other years have started with this amount of activity and if so what were the April-June periods like in these years and did the ENSO Phase look similar.
I guess if it stays the same by Mid April a "Future of the Season" thread will be started
Paul S
Michael O'Keeffe
The 12z GFS is still showing a few systems moving through the last few days of March and first few days of April. I think we just need to wait another week or two before we will see things change for the better. Besides it seems that the later the start of the season the better the year with the exception of 2008 I mean I don't know about everybody else but I'd rather have the peak of the season in May and June when storms move slower and are further west anyway.
MatthewCarman
I wonder if any other years have started with this amount of activity and if so what were the April-June periods like in these years and did the ENSO Phase look similar.
I guess if it stays the same by Mid April a "Future of the Season" thread will be started
Paul S
Are you wanting to know if there was other years that started out pretty active? If so 2008 started off with a bang with tornado outbreaks in December, January, February etc. 2006 I think was active for March and April and in 2007 there was a mini tornado outbreak in Kansas and Missouri for February and the March 28, 2007 tornado fest.
Paul Sherman
EF2
Hi Matthew
No I meant are there any other years where it has been soooo painfully slow, Feb had 1 Tornado and I can only think of the Oklahoma (Elk City) Tornado really for March atm in the Traditional Tor Alley.
Think i read somewhere that 1982 might be similar - Just wondering if exceptionally Slow starts might be better for Late April - May and June.
Regards
Paul S
No I meant are there any other years where it has been soooo painfully slow, Feb had 1 Tornado and I can only think of the Oklahoma (Elk City) Tornado really for March atm in the Traditional Tor Alley.
Think i read somewhere that 1982 might be similar - Just wondering if exceptionally Slow starts might be better for Late April - May and June.
Regards
Paul S
MatthewCarman
I see. This winter has been pretty quite in terms of Severe Weather and March has so far only had two EF2 tornadoes and a few other tornadoes. (OK and AR)
David Goines
This is an interesting graph of tornadoes by year since 2005.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png
Notice we're on track with 2005 which has been the lowest numbered season for tornadoes in the past 5 years. Eeek!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png
Notice we're on track with 2005 which has been the lowest numbered season for tornadoes in the past 5 years. Eeek!
Chris Hayes
EF5
Yeah, we are on a 2005 track. However, 2005 had several good chase days in it. Only reason it sucked for me was I took my chasecation in May rather than June like I should have. The high risk day of June 4, 2005 was my last chase day. Had I taken my chasecation in the first 2 or 3 weeks of June I would have had a good year simply becuase of a couple select days. 2006 on the other hand. . . .
