Thoughts on activity for 2010?

[Bill Tabor]

Appears after checking on climate prediction center...:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

that a strong El Nino continues, but most models show transition closer to neutral conditions by April/May/June with timing uncertain. Temperature and Precipitation forecasts for the next 3 months in Southern Plains particularly TX and some OK indicate cooler than normal and wetter than normal. Rich brings up some good points. I'm also wondering about jet placement and regular frontal intrusion. If the Gulf moisture can intermittently recover and interact with polar fronts & jet streams then perhaps some dynamic conditions for storms. If the above scenario results in more stable cooler conditions however as Rich alluded to then maybe not so good. How do the rest of you interpret this scenario?

Does anyone have a handy dandy chart relating tornado count, rating, perhaps location by El Nino / La Nina / Neutral periods and possibly be geographic location? If this information, chart, graphic hasn't been compiled it seems it is high time to do it. I think such a chart would be very interesting particularly for us chasers as we bide our time and wait for Spring and chasing to roll around.

The Climate Prediction Center doesn't seem to track severe weather as it relates to ENSO patterns - but perhaps this would be a good study addition for the Storm Prediction Center to take up. Perhaps in addition to tornado stats, information on supercell density, distribution, and type would be of benefit along with similar data on hail damage and wind damage. Likely this information would be useful for government planning, insurance companies, and construction companies.

 

[Rich Thompson]

Bill,

This paper only covers JAN-MAR, but it answers some of your questions about El Nino tornado stats:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/cook/enso-mwr.pdf

Rich T.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Bill,

This paper only covers JAN-MAR, but it answers some of your questions about El Nino tornado stats:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/cook/enso-mwr.pdf

Rich T.

If you check out the graph at the end of that publication... 1998 was the best el nino year in the last 50 years? I wonder how 98 compares with 2010

 

[Jason Boggs]

Here is a segment the station that I chase for did today.

2010 OUTLOOK

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Here is a segment the station that I chase for did today.

2010 OUTLOOK

Thanks for sharing the link Jason. I was just thinking the other day how similar this winter was compared to the 06/07 winter. Hopefully 2010 will yield the same results as Spring 2007 like the article mentions. I remember March 28th and April 21st 2007 in the TX panhandle quite well. Hopefully this region will offer up something similar this Spring.

 

[Mike Smith]

I gotta tell you, I am getting impressed by the period from February 25 through March 2. The models have been extremely consistent that an intense storm is going to move from California ENE.

Given the extremely wet conditions (more to follow this week) across much of the U.S. and a persistent block over BC, it is looking like March could be very, very active.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Here is a segment the station that I chase for did today.

2010 OUTLOOK

I saw one of the other Amarllo news stations (cant remember which) have a segment about the Panhandles recent snow and the effects on the upcoming spring. The focus of their segment was on that how snow traps nitrogen and acts as fertilizer on top of giving the moisture to the soil over an extend period. Their point being to expect the Panhandles to be very green this year.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I saw one of the other Amarllo news stations (cant remember which) have a segment about the Panhandles recent snow and the effects on the upcoming spring. The focus of their segment was on that how snow traps nitrogen and acts as fertilizer on top of giving the moisture to the soil over an extend period. Their point being to expect the Panhandles to be very green this year.

See, that's what you get for watching the "other" stations!!! Watch the one that talks about storms, tornadoes and a possible active season. Oh, that's KAMR if you didn't already know.

 

[Eric Sipes]

Look at 00z Fri 2/26 on the GFS. We can dream right.

In all seriousness, I HATE winter!!! This may be an active season but, look at the new graphic that OUN put up. If this verifies,(and it most likely will) don't look for an active severe weather season to start in the next several weeks.

-Eric

 

[Paul Knightley]

Isn't it somewhat chicken and egg though, as the SOI could be -ve because the AO is -ve!

 

[Bill Tabor]

Bill,

This paper only covers JAN-MAR, but it answers some of your questions about El Nino tornado stats:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/cook/enso-mwr.pdf

Rich T.

An interesting paper Rich...thanks for providing a the link for all of us. I'll have to take more time to consider this in detail although I have briefly gone through it. Following I provide some notes and observations / extrapolations:

1) I remember years ago on Wx-Chase (10+ years) I hypothesized ENSO phase should/would have an affect on tornadoes simply and if for no other reason than it influences the overall weather (temperature, moisture, jet placement) in various regions. I'm happy to see they come to this conclusion. They point out in the study it is not a direct relationship affecting or necessarily predicting tornado activity but that it 'sets the stage' to "modulate" the ingredients.

2) This was for Winter activity (Jan-Mar). Hopefully a similar study can be made for Spring or Spring/Summer soon. It would be interesting to see if the same influence was found or if the seasonal difference causes different results. This would be especially nice as Spring/Summer is the primary tornado / severe storm time.

3) Based on #1 above I would think therefore - even though they mention it is not a specific predictor, that it may provide enough influence to use as one part of climatology in forecasting. Perhaps this could be a part of a generalized seasonal forecast for a region such as given by the Climate Prediction Center. Perhaps the ENSO phase as it relates to tornado activity could be one more weighted factor used by SPC over various regions when producing the 1 to 8 day Convective Outlook in regards to concentration, strength determination, and track length. Perhaps.

4) In regards to this year. If you can take the conclusions of this study and apply it to the current and forecasted ENSO phase as chase season approaches:
A) I'd guess that since we are El Nino through March that would mean increased (125%) activity for tornadoes in Texas compared to many other states during an El Nino phase. So a more active tornado season in March for Texas compared to other places this year, but not necessarily compared to Texas / other places in other years (such as Neutral or La Nina).
B) According to the Climate Prediction Center forecast for eventual transition to Neutral phase in the coming months (Apr, May, June) and the study indicates that neutral phase is associated with higher than normal tornado activity as compared to El Nino, and La Nina. In particular it notes that Oklahoma and Kansas have much more activity. Since this ENSO neutral transition to the region of OK / KS correlates with the traditional climatological region of tornadic activity migrating to that area by May/June to me that could be reason to assume that when or as ENSO transitions to neutral if that occurs Apr-June as forecast that for chasing OK/KS may be the place to be for more numerous tornado activity, including stronger and likely more long tracked tornadoes. That's the dream come true for chasers...but as forecasters such as yourself Rich that may not bode well for the public in these places.

It will be very interesting to watch and see if what I mention in #4 above comes true.

On another note... 1998 was an El Nino year and had record tornado outbreaks. Since we are still El Nino as we wind through March and on into Spring it is another thing to wonder if 1998 could repeat. Although I suppose we all have to keep in mind that ENSO is only an influencer of a general trend not a guarantee of activity since other factors comes into play that can mess up a promising chase season.

PS: As an added note and a fly in the ointment I should point out as of now only 41 tornadoes are logged for 2010 on SPC's site and only a handful in TX (extreme ne quad). So far, hardly in extra tornado activity in Tx or anywhere much. Though I'm not sure what is the average TX El Nino value for Jan/Feb. So perhaps March will bring many Tx storms to establish the correlation (it could be a very weak one). That said, the neutral phase is supposed to be the strongest influence related to tornadoes. We'll see how it all plays out.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Not much to add here, but the 1998 El Nino was an eastern Pacific El Nino, where as this one is a central Pacific one. 1998 was also much stronger. Not sure what difference those two points will make.

 

[Paul Knightley]

If anyone wants to take climate model forecasts at face value, check out the AMJ CPC issue! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Nice W TX dryline indicated!

 

[Eric Sipes]

I'd like to get some thoughts on this, I'm just curious as to whether I'm onto something or not.

The way I'm seeing things is that our "early" season severe weather is mostly dependant on 1 factor, the arctic oscillation index. I had somewhat touched on it in an earlier post using a graphic that OUN had posted in their webpage. It would seem as though the negative AOI is pushing cold air south and the negative southern oscillation index (cause of our Pacific El Nino) is directing all of the storms and related cold-fronts deep into the southern plains and GoM. As long as the AOI and SOI are both negative, this trend will continue.

The problem that this is causing is that, with a constant barrage of storm systems and CFs slamming the GoM, the Gulf never has a chance to recover. This is also causing much cooler than average temperatures for most of the country.

If you look at the image below, you'll see a short period from 1/13-1/21 where the AOI became rather neutral. In that same period (1/20) we saw severe weather, including tornadoes, in the southern plains. In the period before that, as the pattern began to shift, (1/4-1/12) we saw less storm activity than we're currently seeing now as well as warmer than average temperatures.

If the current GFS forecast is to be believed, our next chance at seeing warmer temps and less storm activity into the southern plains will be at the beginning of March. This will hopefully in turn signal the beginning of a more spring like pattern. If it's to be believed, we may be chasing by middle to late March.

With the El Nino likely persisting into early May, April could be a very active month for the SP if the forecasted pattern verifies/persists. If the El Nino subsides in late April/early May, we will likely see a few weeks of low activity afterwards, the severe weather will then likely revamp and shift into the central/northern plains in late May and June.

That's my thoughts on the 2010 season. Have I fallen off the deep end?
-Eric

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

 

[Adam Lucio]

Those indexes certainly have their credibility and are often pretty accurate at predicting temperature trends. El nino has strengthened the subtropical jet which is providing the extra fuel for the barrage of storms. We are also sandwiched in a blocking pattern with the mild air aloft parked over Greenland and parts of Canada, this has been pretty common in recent years and when the warm air dome is stuck there it bumps the cold air down into our neck of the woods.

My non-expert opinion thinks it will take quite a strong surge of warm air to dislodge the entire blocking pattern and allow the warm air to surge north. When that happens its go time and it might start off with a bang as opposed to gradual trend towards Spring. Climatology is in our favor, sunlight is getting stronger and the pattern wont hold forever.

Ive noticed the last few runs of the GFS showing some sort of pattern change accompanied by a storm system around March 7th. Each run varies a bit but the'yre all showing the same general thing. It wont be long now.