Thoughts on activity for 2010?

[Drew.Gardonia]

Since we're in an El-Nino year currently, just like to know everyone's thoughts on how active Spring/Summer 2010 might be in the Midwest? (OK, KS, MO, TX, NE).

From what I understand the spring following El-Nino is usually pretty busy.

Thoughts? Early Predictions?

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think it may be a pretty active year in 2010 around the southern plains. We've definitely had our share of moisture this past summer, and it's continuing into the fall season. We're 2 inches above normal on precip here in Amarillo as of right now. If we can keep the moisture coming through winter, we'll keep the dryline further west when spring arrives. This is very important around here.

I saw it time and time again here in 06. We would have Td in the 60's in the morning, and due to a shallow layer of moisture, it would mix to the 40's once daytime heating commenced. Therefore, the dryline would mix into western OK or further east during the day. So, my whole point to this post is this...If El-Nino keeps up the wet pattern for us into the spring season, it will be a good year for us in the TX Panhandle because the warm sector on active days will have an adequate supply of moisture.

 

[Colt R Forney]

I certainly hope so! Its kinda rediculous that I had to go to Wyoming to see my best tornado this year! Yes, all the moisture in the panhandle and the high plains is definately a good thing for storm setups next spring! I have heard the same thing about years following strong el nino's being good severe weather years, but haven't researched much about the correlation between the two. Does anyone know of any good articles or anything that have been done about this?

 

[Chris Hayes]

One thing I like so far is the fact that the drought across Texas has been obliterated so much in the past month+. Hopefully keep it up through the rest of the fall. If there isnt such an extreme/exceptional drought across Texas, it'll be easier for gulf moisture to be transported into KS/OK/NE. Hopefully we can get a decent snowpack on the mountains as well.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Maybe the Vortex 2 curse will live on only this next year will be like 1995 was to Vortex 1 since this year was like 1994.

 

[Andrew Mackenzie]

I would sincerely doubt if where a dryline decides to setup for business has anything at all to do with the amount of rainfall an area has had over the past few months. More likely that the area in question has had the additional rainfall because of where the dryline(s) have atmospherically happened to form in the first place.

Cause & Effect.

 

[Chris Allington]

I would sincerely doubt if where a dryline decides to setup for business has anything at all to do with the amount of rainfall an area has had over the past few months. More likely that the area in question has had the additional rainfall because of where the dryline(s) have atmospherically happened to form in the first place.

Cause & Effect.

Andrew,

There was actually an article on here recently, which I can't seem to find now, that talked about drought years allowing the dryline to mix further east during strong heating, then years when there wasn't a drought. If someone has the link please post it... it really doesn't seem like that is all that much of a stretch to me.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I would sincerely doubt if where a dryline decides to setup for business has anything at all to do with the amount of rainfall an area has had over the past few months. More likely that the area in question has had the additional rainfall because of where the dryline(s) have atmospherically happened to form in the first place.

Cause & Effect.

Actually, drought conditions would result in less evapotranspiration, which would negatively effect the moisture content of an air mass. By how much? Not sure, but it would at least effect it somewhat, which could cause the dryline to mix further to the east where moisture is higher.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I would sincerely doubt if where a dryline decides to setup for business has anything at all to do with the amount of rainfall an area has had over the past few months. More likely that the area in question has had the additional rainfall because of where the dryline(s) have atmospherically happened to form in the first place.

Cause & Effect.

Rainfall and moisture content of the ground which results in (evapotranspiration) has a lot to do with where the dryline will set up on a particular day. Move to the TX Panhandle and you will see this first hand. Like I said, in 06 the moisture was so shallow (due to very dry soils) that the dryline would mix east very quickly and the net result would be Td in the 40's by 3pm.

However, if you have a layer of moisture that is very deep in the atmosphere, sometimes the dryline won't mix east for several days. The net result...the possibility of severe wx in one particular area for several days in a row.

From what I witnessed in 06, moisture content in the ground is extremely important in dryline location during possible severe wx days.

Anyway, I do believe that the southern plains (TX Panhandle) will have above normal activity in 2010 IF we keep getting moisture. We had good moisture through the summer, and it's continuing. Now, lets keep it going through the winter and we'll be good to go.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I've been trying to find a good source on the web, but I haven't found anything reliable that goes back to 1995, so here goes: What was the precip. situation like during the winter of 1994-95? I would suspect that there was a pretty decent amount of moisture present to allow storms to occur deep into the Texas panhandle, as they did that year (i.e. Friona, Dimmitt, Dougherty, Pampa x2, etc.).

 

[Mark Sudduth]

For those who like the El Nino, you're in luck with it hanging on for a little while longer at least. The SOI has really tanked as of late with all indices going quite a bit below zero. Thus, a solid westerly wind burst should commence and prolong the warming for the next several weeks. It is amazing how you can track these things now with fairly decent accuracy. Not unitl we see the SOI really come up will there be much reason to believe the El Nino is about to exit. Would also expect a decent severe weather season in FL come February if 2010 acts like 1998 did.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

1998 was one of the deadliest tornado season for the nation during the last decade and that was during a el nino but that el nino just so happened to be the strongest on record which our current one most likely will not get to be nearly as strong.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Here is a little tidbit of info I found on the AMA NWS. Here is one major reason why the dryline raced east on possible storm days in 06 and we chased wildfires instead of tornadoes. Take note of 2005 precip.

2001....18.69
2002....18.25
2003....13.42
2004....26.31
2005....15.00 about 5 inches below normal
2006....21.88
2007....22.50
2008....22.44

Also, here are some total monthly precip reports from early 06.
Jan- 0.03 inches
Feb- 0.05 inches
Mar- 1.56 inches
Apr- 0.23 inches

 

[Chris Hayes]

Here is a little tidbit of info I found on the AMA NWS. Here is one major reason why the dryline raced east on possible storm days in 06 and we chased wildfires instead of tornadoes. Take note of 2005 precip.

2001....18.69
2002....18.25
2003....13.42
2004....26.31
2005....15.00 about 5 inches below normal
2006....21.88
2007....22.50
2008....22.44

Also, here are some total monthly precip reports from early 06.
Jan- 0.03 inches
Feb- 0.05 inches
Mar- 1.56 inches
Apr- 0.23 inches

I like those precip stats, Jason. I love chasing in the western plains. Any similar info from DDC or GLD?

 

[Jason Boggs]

I like those precip stats, Jason. I love chasing in the western plains. Any similar info from DDC or GLD?

Here is a link to some precip stats from Ford county that I found.

PRECIP STATS